The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index™ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. You cannot invest directly in an index. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
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How fracking could save the dollar, according to RBC Capital: As the U.S. eventually becomes a net energy exporter, the U.S. trade deficit will shrink and convert the current account deficit into a surplus - inevitably providing long-term support for the dollar. As expectations of America's biggest foreign creditors are adjusted, the market may rethink the dollar’s trajectory sooner rather than later.
The best way to judge the dollar's value, says Scott Grannis, is trade-weighted and inflation-adjusted, and by that standard the greenback is at about its lowest level in modern history. The good news for dollar bulls, he says, is it may be hard for things to get much worse. The bad news - that the dollar is so weak against the currencies of dismal economies like the EU, U.K., and Japan.
Inhabiting some sort of alternative universe, Citigroup's usually-incisive Steven Englander suggests recent dollar strength - the greenback is up 2.5% since the QE∞ announcement - is a sign the Fed will end its easy money policies before the currently-stated mid-2015 date. More likely: Risk off means dollar strength.
With the world focused on the maybe irrelevant fiscal cliff, Kevin Ferry notes a ratcheting up in the currency wars. After nearly 2 decades, the BOJ seems to be getting serious with its QE efforts, and the BOE just became even more of an arm of fiscal policy. If the Fed had tried this, the howls would be deafening. The dollar +1% vs. the yen, buying ¥80.13.
The greenback reflexively slid lower as the President's reelection became clear last night, but has since retraced all of the move. Were traders expecting a Romney victory followed by a rate hike? The Fed wasn't going anywhere no matter last night's result.
The dollar index nears the dreaded "death cross" - the 50-day moving average moving below the 200-day moving average. To the technicians who mostly populate foreign exchange trading, the pattern is thought to confirm the start of a new downtrend. The dollar bull ETF (UUP) looks to have already completed the formation.
Bonds are expensive, but so is hurricane insurance in Louisiana, writes Keith McCullough, recommending everyone's favorite hated asset as protection against a slowing economy and Bernanke's bubbles. Oct. 2012 is reminding him of Oct. 2007, when investors were more concerned with the past (double-digit gains YTD) than the future (sliding earnings). Also good insurance: The dollar (UUP) and utilities (XLU).
The dollar will strengthen despite the Fed's best efforts to debase it, according to a Bloomberg survey of currency forecasters who have recently had the lowest margin of error in their calls. The dollar index weakened during QEs I and II but this time will be different, they say, thanks to an outperforming U.S. economy. UUP -2.9% YTD.
Draghi: Responding to a question of whether a rate cut is even conceivable considering the "broken transmission mechanism," Draghi says the ECB's use of non-standard measures (OMT) "speaks for itself." In other words, the bank believes a rate cut will be of little use, so don't expect one. So the dollar will remain more favored than the euro as the borrowing currency for carry traders?
An outstanding set of charts (I, II, III) from Deutsche (h/t MicroFundy) tracks the S&P, CRB, and the dollar index before and after the Fed's (now 3) QE programs. If it's true - as the charts suggest - that the effect of the drug wears off with each successive application, stocks, commodities, and currencies may not have much more in gains ahead of them.
The dollar continues a big move lower following the Fed's open-ended QE announcement and Bernanke's anything it takes as long as it takes press conference. The euro +1% to $1.3116, the aussie +0.5% to $1.06 - neither of those handles have been seen for months. The loonie +0.4% to $1.0367, a 2012 high.
More FOMC: We'll hear more from Bernanke soon, but further reflection reveals the true power of today's QE3 announcement. By making the asset purchase program open-ended, the onus now falls onto the hawks to assemble the votes to end it. QE could be Fed policy for a very long time. Stocks, gold, silver, and currencies not nicknamed the greenback all seem to have realized this and moved sharply higher.
It's hard to believe this is happening given what's happened in the year since S&P downgraded the U.S., but the greenback and Treasurys both sell off following the Moody's warning of a possible cut in America's credit rating. The long bond yield rises 3.5 bps to 2.84%. The bull dollar ETF: UUP -0.5% premarket.
'The crowded long dollar trade is no more," writes Sober Look, as CFTC data shows currency speculators last week turned net short the greenback for the first time in nearly a year. The CFTC information can be handy when it gets to extremes. A year ago, specs were leaning heavily to the short side (amidst the U.S. credit downgrade) just as the dollar was set to take off on a 9-month, 13.5% run higher.
Maybe biggest reaction to the dovish FOMC minutes comes from the precious metals, gold adding nearly 1% to $1,648/oz., and silver tacking on a similar amount to $29.67. GLD +0.6%, SLV +1.5%. Currencies: The euro adds 50 pips to $1.2526. The pound, aussie, yen, and loonie all get a boost as well. UUP -0.5%.