Aug. 15, 2013, 8:45 AM
- S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.8% and bond prices tumble further as initial jobless claims are within shouting distance of soon having a "2" handle, falling to 320K last week. The four-week moving average fell 4K to 332K.
- TLT -1.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield is up to a new 2013 high of 2.78%.
- Earlier: Shaky numbers from Wal-Mart fail to stop yields from going higher.
- Related ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
Aug. 15, 2013, 8:01 AM
- Treasurys actually accelerate losses following the Wal-Mart earnings report and its confirmation of a broad U.S. consumer pullback.
- The 10-year Treasury yield has carved out a new YTD high, up 3 bps to 2.75%. The 5-year is up 3 bps to 1.5%, still below its high of 1.61%.
- Later today comes more talk from the Fed's new lead dove, Jim Bullard, and a slew of economic reports - none overwhelmingly important, but taken together might offer clues.
- TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.5% premarket.
- Related ETFs: TLH, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
Aug. 14, 2013, 11:08 AM
- Tapering is likely in September, tweets Diane Swonk, but it could be accompanied by a dissent if August's payroll data doesn't show improvement.
- The dissent she's speaking of could be St. Louis' Jim Bullard - worried about low inflation and a taper schedule more about dates than data, he dissented at the June meeting. Bullard voted with the crowd in July though as the FOMC tweaked its policy statement to note concern with inflation below the 2% target.
- Bullard will be heard from later today.
- The "Fed will not taper because of stronger growth," tweets a resigned Bill Gross (BOND). "They will taper because of fear of asset bubbles." Bubbly fixed income markets are detailed here.
- The 10-year Treasury remains near the YTD high at 2.70%. TLT +0.1%.
- Other long-term Treasury ETFs: TLH, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
- Shorter-duration Treasury ETFs: SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ.
Aug. 13, 2013, 8:38 AM
- Already lower in morning action, bond prices take no comfort from core retail sales rising 0.5% in July - the fastest gain thus far in 2013.
- TLT -1.3% premarket, with its leveraged bear counterpart TBT +2.4%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up 9 bps to 2.69%.
- Other longer-term Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
- Broad Treasury ETFs: TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
- Stock index futures give up some gains, the S&P 500 +0.2%.
Aug. 6, 2013, 11:56 AM
- The meme that the 1994 bond market (AGG, BND) selloff won't happen again takes a blow as FRBNY researchers take a look and find this year's decline thus far is tracking 1994's carnage (and 2003's) fairly closely.
- Where the moves differ is in the shape of the yield curve. 1994's rise in long-term yields was accompanied by higher short-term rates (as investors anticipated Fed rate hikes), leading to little-change in the yield curve. In 2013, there's been very little movement at the short-end, meaning investors are simply demanding more yield to hold longer-dated paper.
- Popular Treasury ETFs: TLT, TBT.
- Yield curve ETFs: STPP, FLAT.
- Treasury bull Bill Gross (BOND) is beginning to sound maybe just the slightest bit desperate, tweeting minutes ago: "JOLTS data do NOT validate 200K payroll prints. More like 125K. Taper may be delayed if Yellen has a big vote."
- Today's Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is here.
Aug. 1, 2013, 9:07 AM
- The 326K print was the smallest since January 2008, though there is some question as to whether government models are accurately adjusting for the changed nature of summer auto plant shutdowns (some manufacturers completely forego them now).
- The 4-week moving average declines 4.5K to 341,250.
- Treasury prices have no issue with the seasonal adjustment and head south fast, TLT -1.2% premarket and the 10-year yield up 4 bps to 2.64%.
- Stock index futures remain higher by 0.7%.
Jul. 31, 2013, 8:44 AM
- Real personal consumption expenditures +1.8% vs. +2.3% in Q1.
- Nonresidential fixed investment +4.6% vs. -4.6% in Q1.
- Federal government spending -1.5% vs. -8.4% in Q1.
- Price index +0.3% vs. +1.4% in Q1.
- Real final sales (strips out inventory changes) +1.3% vs. +0.2% in Q1.
- Q1 GDP revised down to 1.1% from 1.8% (makes one wonder why they're even looking at today's Q2 estimate).
- Nevertheless, bond prices continue to fall, TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.4% premarket.
- Stock index futures (SPY, DIA, QQQ) remain flat.
- Previous: Q2 GDP +1.7% vs. 1.1% expectations.
- Full report.
Jul. 31, 2013, 8:22 AM| 9 Comments
Jul. 24, 2013, 1:23 PMTreasury prices (TLT -1.6%) add to losses following the 5-year note auction and a pretty middling bid-to-cover ratio. The 10-year yield is up 11 bps to 2.61% in its worst session since the June employment report, and it's starting to take effect on the major stock market averages. The Dow (DIA -0.5%) and the S&P 500 (SPY -0.5%). The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.2%) clings on to a small gain, courtesy of Apple. | 18 Comments
Jul. 21, 2013, 9:51 PM"So bonds (TLT, TBT) come out of their coffin and it's not even Halloween," tweets Bill Gross (BOND). "Bernanke says follow the policy rate and we agree. 2016 tightening at the earliest." Treasurys completed one of their biggest two-week rallies in a year last week as Bernanke assured investors the Fed has not yet decided to begin tapering asset purchases. January 2016 Fed Funds futures are pricing in nearly 100 bps of rate hikes between now and then. | 6 Comments
Jul. 15, 2013, 3:47 PMWith the "tapering genie" out of the bottle, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield won't go below 2.4% absent a significant weakening in the economy, says BAML U.S. rates strategy chief Priya Misra. The forces keeping rates suppressed over the years - QE, downside growth worry, safe haven demand, bond inflows - are all subsiding. Didn't Jeff Gundlach say a few weeks back, the 10-year rate couldn't go over 2.40%? TLT +0.3% and the 10-year yield is currently 2.55%. | 7 Comments
Jul. 11, 2013, 7:02 AMTreasury yields head south fast following Bernanke's dovish tilt last night, the 10-year off about 10 bps to 2.56%. TLT +1.5% premarket. The 5-year yield (IEI) is back down to 1.4%, off 20 bps since hitting 1.6% last week - a level making little sense with the Fed sitting on a 0% Fed Funds rate for the next 2-3 years. TBT -2.4% premarket. | 14 Comments
Jul. 9, 2013, 1:37 PMA loud treasury bull throws in the towel with David Rosenberg declaring Friday's jobs report a game-changer. The private sector gained 202K jobs last month, making that level the norm for the last 5 months. Against an average of 136K for the 2002-07 cycle and 210K for the 1992-2000 tech boom, it's a pretty fair number. "The case for the Fed's above-consensus forecasts to be met ... looks pretty strong to me." TLT flat today. | 1 Comment
Jul. 8, 2013, 8:10 AMTreasury yields are just starting to go higher, says Goldman, seeing the 10-year as high as 3% by year's end (2.69% at the moment) and 4% by 2016. It's a pretty meek forecast for a team that's been so bearish on Treasurys. TrimTabs notes bond market "carnage" poses big risks for corporate America as oft-noted record cash levels are balanced by record debt levels. Bill Gross remains bullish in the face of sizable losses (BOND) and outflows, tweeting over the weekend, "1-2 month performance numbers are a blip on a 40-year performance history. Pimco marches on a long-term path." TLT +0.3% premarket. | 1 Comment
Jul. 5, 2013, 4:07 PM
Jul. 5, 2013, 8:36 AMTreasury prices crumble following June's strong employment gain. In addition to May's 20K upward revision, April's print was revised higher by 50K to 199K. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 2.63%. TLT -1.4%, TBT +2.9% premarket. Stock index futures, however, move to new session highs, SPY +1.4%, QQQ +1.2% premarket. | Comment!
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