Q3 2009 Earnings Call

November 3, 2009 8:30 am ET

Web-enabled TVs are becoming more common and eventually, they or some comparable TV-to-Internet bridge technology will be the norm. In the interim, though, consumers don’t seem to have any hesitation when it comes to satisfying their video cravings through today’s distribution platforms.

On September 28th, comScore Video Metrix released its measurements (release) detailing August viewing habits.

The big news Tuesday morning was a CNET report quoting Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s admission that he paid around $1 billion too much for YouTube.

Here’s an extract from Schmidt’s deposition in the ongoing Viacom (VIA) suit:

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Note: Nielsen Online, AdRelevance service uses a proprietary methodology for estimating online advertising expenditures and only takes into account image-based technologies and advertising sold per CPM. Data does not reflect house advertising activity, strategic partnerships between publishers and advertisers, or text units, compound image/text ads, paid search, sponsorships, email, units contained within applications (e.g., messengers and pre-rolls) or performance based advertising.

Back in late February and early March, we made several references to our Bespoke Premium clients that even though the S&P 500 was trading down to new lows, the number of stocks making new lows wasn't expanding, which is very positive for the market. As shown in the chart below, at the October low, 84% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made a new low. Then in November, 63% of stocks hit new lows. At the March low, however, only 36% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made new lows.

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Cautious optimism from media executives and analysts about the modest uptick in advertising fails to take into account two wild cards that could spoil the recovery party and is already causing a rift on Wall Street.

How much advertiser spending will eventually come back, and where will those dollars land? What sources of organic revenue growth will sustain a media recovery after cutting costs?

This is the second quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up is Eric Mindich's hedge fund firm, Eton Park Capital. Mindich started the fund back in 2004 with $3 billion under management with a $5 million minimum investment. Nowadays, Eton Park manages over $6 billion. The fund's investment strategy draws upon Mindich's time at Goldman Sachs where he focused on merger arbitrage. He was so good at his job that he became the youngest partner in Goldman Sachs' history at the age of 27. In addition to merger arbitrage, Eton Park focuses on long/short equity strategies and even invests up to 30% of its portfolio into private investments.

Fear of diminishing returns from digital distribution is fueling Hollywood studio ire with Redbox's (CSTR) $1 daily rental of new movie releases in what is shaping up to be a major test of new media economics.

The numbers tell the story. Redbox movie rentals are frequently offered for "free" by local merchants seeking to drive store traffic. The increasing numbers of Redbox vending machines (expected to reach 22,000 by year's end) provides the local convenience of a self-serve neighborhood Blockbuster (BBI) compared to the mail-wait of Netflix (NFLX).

The most immediate options -- video-on-demand and iTunes downloads generally $3.99 or $4.99 for a limited viewing window -- seem expensive by comparison. It leaves little doubt about the deteriorating appeal of DVD sales at $15 or $20 a hit, even before you take rampant piracy into account.

Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

July 28, 2009 8:30 am ET

• AOL goes solo. Time Warner (TWX) filed with the SEC to officially turn AOL into a stand-alone, publicly traded company called AOL Inc. According to the filing, Time Warner repurchased Google's (GOOG) 5% stake in AOL for $283M earlier this month, valuing AOL at less than $5.66B vs. the $20B implied valuation the business carried in 2005.
• Speculators drove oil price spike. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will release a report next month suggesting speculators played a major role in causing oil prices to spike, reversing an earlier finding by the CFTC that attributed oil price swings primarily to supply and demand. One of the CFTC commissioners said the original analysis was based on 'deeply flawed data.' The agency, which is shifting away from its former hands-off approach, is expected to institute rules limiting the investments of large institutions in commodities.
• AIG keeps asset sale proceeds. AIG (AIG) used $2.4B from recent asset sales to improve the capital position of its property-casualty unit rather than using the funds to pay down some of its government debt. AIG's need to use some of the sale proceeds to bolster its own businesses will undoubtedly raise questions about the insurer's ability to repay its government bailout.
• U.S. pledges to rein in deficit. At the beginning of a strategic round of talks with China, Geithner pledged to ensure a 'sustainable' U.S. budget deficit by 2013 as Chinese officials expressed concern over the security of their U.S. financial holdings. There were few signs of tensions over the value of the yuan. Both countries agreed not to prematurely withdraw economic stimulus measures.
• SEC updates short-selling rules. The SEC will no longer require institutional investors to report their short-sale positions on a weekly and confidential basis, part of an effort to curb abuse by making more information about short positions available to the public. The weekly reporting was instituted in October as an emergency measure and will expire August 1. A temporary ban on naked short selling was made permanent.
• Amgen, Glaxo reach drug agreement. Amgen (AMGN) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) reached an agreement to jointly market denosumab, an osteoperosis treatment that could see annual sales of $2B within a decade if approved by regulators. Glaxo will pay $120M for near-term milestones to share profits in Europe and to sell the drug in countries where Amgen doesn't have any exposure. Amgen will market the drug in the U.S. and Canada, and retain the rights to sell it for cancer in Europe once it's approved.
• Third time's the charm for Delphi. Delphi looks set to emerge from nearly four years of bankruptcy protection with its third attempt at an exit plan. Delphi's board approved an offer to split the company between former parent General Motors and lenders, replacing an agreement announced two months ago between GM and Platinum Equity. Under the new deal terms, lenders will forgive $3.4B in debt in exchange for most of the supplier's assets, and the lenders will pay cash to keep Delphi operating. GM will pay a little over $3B for four North American factories and Delphi's steering business.
• BoA to shutter branches. Bank of America (BAC) is planning to slash the company's 6,100-branch network by 10%, reversing two decades of coast-to-coast expansion. Bank officials reportedly attribute the closings to changes in customer preferences, citing the shift away from traditional branches in favor of online and mobile banking. A timeline for the closures wasn't specified.
• Reining in derivatives. Lawmakers are considering steps to curb speculation in the $39T credit default swaps [CDS] market, which could include preventing investors from speculating on a borrower's credit quality. Among the options under consideration to curb speculation are a ban on naked CDS and a requirement that derivative dealers and investment advisers managing more than $100M report their short interests in CDS contracts to the appropriate regulator.
• Magna improves bid. Magna International (MGA) reportedly improved its bid for General Motors' Opel unit, offering to inject €350M upfront vs. an earlier offer of €100M. The improved offer comes after the German government criticized all three bidders for the amount of their own capital they were willing to inject into Opel.
• CVC brews up AB InBev bid. According to media reports, private equity group CVC Capital Partners is prepared to pay up to €1.5B ($2.1B) for the Central and Eastern European assets of Anheuser-Busch InBev. AB InBev was accepting bids until yesterday, by which point CVC and TPG Capital were still in the running but KKR had dropped out.
• New homes sales (.pdf). New home sales came in at 384K in June, up 11% from May, vs. consensus of 350K. Sales were down 21.3% vs. the previous year. The median home price of $206,200 was down from May's $221,600. Inventory of 281K homes represents an 8.8 month supply, down from 10.2 months in May.

Earnings: Tuesday Before Open

• AMB Property (AMB): Q2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $147M (-27%) vs. $144M.
• BE Aerospace (BEAV): Q2 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $475M (-9%) vs. $488M. (PR)
• BP (BP): Q2 EPS of $1.01 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $54.8B (-50%) vs. $64B. Shares -1.2% premarket (6:50 ET). (BP press release (.pdf))
• Celanese (CE): Q2 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.2B (-33%) vs. $1.3B. (PR)
• Check Point Software (CHKP): Q2 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $224M (+12%) vs. $220M. (PR)
• Coach (COH): FQ4 EPS of $0.43 in-line. Revenue of $778M (-0.5%) vs. $780M. (PR)
• Coventry Health Care (CVH): Q2 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $3.5B (+19%) in-line. (PR)
• Diamondrock Hospitality Company (DRH): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $144M (-21%) vs. $145M. (PR)
• EarthLink (ELNK): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $186M (-24%) in-line. (PR)
• Energizer (ENR): Q2 EPS of $1.12 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $997.5M (-6.5%) vs. $1B. (PR)
• FPL Group (FPL): Q2 EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.8B (+6%) vs. $3.9B. (PR)
• Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Q2 EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $1.5B (-20%) vs. $1.6B. (PR)
• Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC): FQ3 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.7B (-7%) vs. $2.8B. (PR)
• McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP): Q2 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.46B (-12%) vs. $1.54B. (PR)
• National Oilwell Varco (NOV): Q2 EPS of $0.90 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3B (-9.5%) vs. $3.1B. Shares -2.7% premarket (8:10 ET). (PR)
• Office Depot (ODP): Q2 EPS of -$0.22 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $2.8B (-22%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• PACCAR (PCAR): Q2 EPS of $0.07 vs. consensus of $0.04 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $1.6B (-58%) vs. $1.7B. Shares +0.9% premarket (8:30 ET). (PR)
• Patriot Coal Corporation (PCX): Q2 EPS of $0.39 vs. consensus of -$0.47 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $507M (+49.3%) vs. $518M. (PR)
• PepsiAmericas(PAS): Q2 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $1.3B (-6%) in-line. (PR)
• Rockwell Automation (ROK): FQ3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1B (-31.5%) in-line. (PR)
• Smith International (SII): Q2 EPS of $0.15 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $1.9B (-22%) vs. $2B. (PR)
• SUPERVALU (SVU): Q2 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $12.7B (-5%) vs. $12.8B. (PR)
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA): Q2 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.4B (+20%) vs. $3.5B. (PR)
• Textron (TXT): Q2 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $2.6B (-29%) in-line. Lowers guidance for FY '09, sees EPS of $0.33-0.63 vs. prior $0.45-0.75, sees FY '09 revenue of ~$10.6B vs. prior $11B. (PR)
• United States Steel Corporation (X): Q2 EPS of -$3.28 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $2.1B (-68.5%) vs. $2.4B. Shares -3.7% premarket (8:30 ET). (PR)
• Valero Energy (VLO): Q2 EPS of -$0.48 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $17.9B vs. $16.3B. Shares -2% premarket (8:15 ET). (PR)
• Viacom (VIA.B): Q2 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.3B (-14.5%) vs. $3.5B. (PR)
• Vishay Intertechnology (VSH): Q2 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $460M (-41%) vs. $459M. Issues upside guidance for Q3, sees revenue of $480-520M vs. $477M consensus. (PR)
• Waddell & Reed Financial (WDR): Q2 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $200M (-21%) vs. $195M. (PR)
• Waters (WAT): Q2 EPS of $0.78 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $363M (-9%) vs. $366M. (PR)

Earnings: Monday After Close

• ACE Limited (ACE): Q2 EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.15. Net premiums written of $3.4B (-5%). (PR)
• Amgen (AMGN): Q2 EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $3.7B (-1%) vs. $3.6B. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $4.80-4.95 vs. $4.57. (PR)
• CF Industries (CF): Q2 EPS of $4.33 beats by $1.72. Revenue of $991M (-15%) vs. $764M. (PR)
• Crane Company (CR): Q2 EPS of $0.47 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $545M (-21%) vs. $588M. (PR)
• Desarrolladora Homex (HXM): Q2 EPS of $0.91 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $359M (+8%) vs. $329M. (PR)
• Fidelity National Financial (FNF): Q2 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.6B (+34%) in-line. (PR)
• Health Management Associates (HMA): Q2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.2B (+5%) vs. $1.1B. (PR)
• Hexcel (HXL): Q2 EPS of $0.18 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $277M (-23%) vs. $302M. (PR)

• Kilroy Realty (KRC): Q2 FFO of $0.79 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $71M (+2%) vs. $66M. (PR)

Viacom (VIA.B), Time Warner (TWX), Disney (DIS)

Halliburton Company (HAL) – The oil and gas company jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after a large chunk of puts were purchased in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the Houston, Texas-based firm are higher by 2% today to $19.29. Approximately 35,000 in-the-money put options were scooped up at the January 22 strike price for an average premium of 4.45 apiece. Perhaps the investor responsible for the transaction is long the stock and is looking to protect his position from potential downward movement in HAL through expiration in January. In this case the trader is hoping for the value of the stock to appreciate and would be considered bullish. On the other hand, the transaction could represent bearish speculation by an investor aiming to amass profits beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $17.55 by the start of 2010.

By: Jon "DRJ" Najarian

"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" broke box-office records and recorded more than $200 million on its opening weekend. But the trade here isn't its studio, Viacom (VIA.B).

The top five box office hit motion pictures over July 4 weekend generated substantial sales. The 'stacation' is becoming more popular during this recession, with people going to the movies, going out to local restaurants, and day trips. And this has helped the motion picture industry.

Number one was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, starring Shia Labeouf and Megan Fox, distributed by Paramount Pictures. Paramount is owned by Viacom (VIA) (VIA.B) which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. The movie appeared in 4,234 theaters and generated a gross of $42,320,877 for the weekend and $293,355,885 altogether since the movie came out.

This is the 1st Quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings series preface.

Next up is Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital, who was ranked 53rd in Alpha's 2008 hedge fund rankings. Mindich received an Economics degree from Harvard and then worked at Goldman Sachs' risk-arbitrage desk. After becoming the youngest partner in the history of Goldman Sachs at the age of 27, it was clear he had a bright future. In 2004, he started his hedge fund Eton Park Capital with a record $3 billion in assets and a $5 million minimum investment required of investors. Today, Mindich manages over $6 billion. Typically, Eton Park invests in long/short equity and convertible arbitrage strategies. Additionally, as much as 30% of the fund can be invested in private investments.

Magic Formula Investing, invented by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book that Beats the Market, is designed to find stocks with two attributes: A high earnings yield (indicating a cheap price), and high returns on capital (indicating a good business). However, if you look at the official screens regularly, it becomes apparent that often several stocks within an individual industry sector will all appear around the same time. This indicates that the sector, not necessarily the individual stocks, is out of favor with investors.

This is important for two reasons. First, buying into sectors out-of-favor is a good contrarian strategy for value investors. The market is one of cycles, and when one industry sector is up, others are down... but you can be sure they will reverse places in time. For example, oil and gas stocks were all the rage just a year ago as crude prices soared, but today sell for 40% or more less than they did at this point in 2008.

When Marvel began its makeover early in the decade, the company generated revenue from its comic books, toys, and license fees Hollywood studios paid to make some of those comics into films – the biggest being the Spider-Man series. I liked this model because the movie business is insanely risky and it guaranteed Marvel would generate revenue without taking any risk.

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital, who was ranked 53rd in Alpha's hedge fund rankings. Mindich received an Economics degree from Harvard and then worked at Goldman Sachs' risk-arbitrage desk. After becoming the youngest partner in the history of Goldman Sachs at the age of 27, it was clear he had a bright future.