Vanguard REIT Index VIPERs (VNQ)
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- Real Estate ETFs: Vanguard's REIT ETF Should Benefit When Volatility Subsides [view article]
- Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income [view article]
- Tracking 9 ETF Portfolios [view article]
- Yawning from the Market Sidelines, ETFs in Hand [view article]
- 8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [view article]
- Performance for Harvard, Yale Endowments in 2008 [view article]
- Financial Crisis Hits REITs ETFs Hard [view article]
- Simple Asset Allocation Yardstick [view article]
- REITs: Uninspiring Valuations, Still Vulnerable to Housing Bust [view article]
- Harvard Endowment 2008 Performance [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- El-Erian's Recommended Allocation vs. Harvard, Yale [view article]
loading ...Recent VNQ Articles
- Real Estate ETFs: Vanguard's REIT ETF Should Benefit When Volatility Subsides
- Currency ETFs Shine Through Bleak Market
- Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income
- Tracking 9 ETF Portfolios
- 8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend
- Performance for Harvard, Yale Endowments in 2008
- Yawning from the Market Sidelines, ETFs in Hand
- Financial Crisis Hits REITs ETFs Hard
- REITs: Uninspiring Valuations, Still Vulnerable to Housing Bust
- The 15 Basis Point Portfolio and Bobodex 10 Collide
- Full List of Articles »
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Diversification and Volatility: What's New? [view article]
Terrible, just terrible article. Ridiculous way to define volatility, when there are so many other ways. What's your point, to get your name in print? And why did the editors let this one thru? No aplha here. ReplyExchange-Traded Funds and Closed-End Funds by Asset Class, Type and Provider [view article]
Are there any EFT funds that are purelt composed of vietnam companies? lasmatas@yahoo.com ReplyEquity REITs Still Significantly Overvalued [view article]
Good stuff, yet again!cheers,
john Reply
Considine
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Hi there:The idea of rebalancing to include heavier weights in REIT's is a bit scary. They are fundamentally over-valued. That said, a tradional re-balancer would have sold off more and more REIT shares in the last several years, right? On a share basis, he/she would be pretty light.
You have hit the nail on the head with your question, though. This is the whole fundamental argument writ large. I am not nor will I be a buyer of REIT's at anything like the current levels. There are other great diversifiers that make more sense from a fundamental standpoint right now. I am not in favor of standard rebalancing arguments anyway---I wrote an article on that recently and there is also some reference to it in my new 'Core Themes' article. Reply
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Hi Geoff,Great article. I have a hypothetical question. Say that one is an investor with a well diversified retirement portfolio, 15-20 years out from retirement, has roughly 10% of that portfolio in a REIT fund--and is basically an "average" investor: not too conservative, not too aggressive. Our hypothetical investor is also good at rebalancing his portfolio, once a year or whenever something gets more than plus/minus 10% out of whack...to maintain a well designed plan for diversification.
Given the recent downturn in REIT funds, and the likelihood of more decline, as you outline above, my hypothetical investor should -- to remain true to the definition of rebalancing -- be incrementally moving gains from other funds into the declining REIT fund. Sell high and buy low, right?
My hypothetical investor's question is this: How does the investor know when the common wisdom about rebalancing, as described in paragraph 2 above, does not apply? If the investor had a 100-year time horizon, the answer would be easy--if the diversification is correct for him/her, maintain it. But with a 15-year REIT downturn appearing possible, does the conventional wisdom go out the window in the specific case of REITS and right now--summer 2007? (And also assuming that our investor understands that a 15-20 year time horizon can translate to a 45-year period of time during which the retirement portfolio is turned liquid--i.e., spent.)
Your thoughts? Reply
Considine
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Hi NoFate:You could be correct that this is a 'Katrina-level' of disaster and if it is, models will be too conservative. That is always the case. My main point is that the declines that we have seen are within normal bounds (1-in-20 events are not like lightning strikes or Katrinas). a 10% chance of a 50% decline may be correct---but where did you get that number? Reply
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Your final chart seems to indicate that there is only a 30% chance that REITs will decline in price over the next year if I am reading it correctly. I think this is way too bullish.I think we are in a very unusual place with RE and the markets right now. So much so that they can't be modeled very well using historical data. It's like trying to predict a Katrina event or a bad earthquake with historical data.
Given the dizzy heights we are at on the Case-Shiller Index ...and the fact that things are really beginning to unravel ...I think it is impossible to predict anything, except down. I would predict something along the lines of a 10% chance that REITs will be higher in a year and 10% that they will get cut in half ...80% that they will be somewhere in between.
Thanks for responding though ...I respect your opinion even if I disagree! Reply
Considine
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
NoFate:If you read my article and thought that I was touting REIT's, I think you better read it again... Reply
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Who do you think you are kidding? Using ICF as an example, it nearly tripled in 4 years!!I don't care what kind of software or math you are using, but this is a bubble. The REIT charts all look like NASDAQ in 2000!
The party is over -
1) Property values will revert to the mean (eventually).
2) There will be such a glut of RE out there rents will probably drop as well.
3) Pray we don't have a recession ...then we will have huge vacancy rates.
Anyway nice try, but I am not buying. In fact, what I AM buying is SRS (a double short against a REIT index). Reply
Lasik Doc
Commercial Real Estate Could Drop 15% -- Bloomberg [view article]
Hi, interesting blog. Thanks for the read!I just noticed in today’s headlines that the Realtors pending home sale index fell by 12.2% for July 2007. This is a huge drop especially considering that most economists thought it would only be off by 2%.
Today I noted in a San Diego real estate broker’s blog (www.brokerforyou.com/b.../) an interesting post about this as well as some really eye opening statistics for the San Diego real estate market.
You definitely want to view the chart posted on August 27th showing the one year value decline for condominiums in the San Diego area. This chart shows that in one zip code, values were off by over 34.2% in just this time period. When one considers that the top of the market was actually sometime around the summer of 2005, there is a good possibility that before this is over, some real estate values could be off by 50% or more from their peak.
San Francisco attorneys</font>...
Reply
The Problem With Vanguard VIPERs ETFs [view article]
It seems most ETFs are set up as open end index funds. Are you still down on Vanguard Vipers? ReplyThe Problem With Vanguard VIPERs ETFs [view article]
It seems most ETFs are set up as open end index funds. Are you still down on Vanguard Vipers? Replyercup
35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
Great post - much more insightful than you brief post earlier - thanks for the extra effort Reply35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
The WisdomTree international ETF (DRW) is 43.19% non-REIT (contains real estate management and development companies), has 222 holdings, pays 4.48% dividend yield,has 75% of its assets in four countries (Australia, Honk Kong, Japan and Singapore), and relative to the Dow Jones Real Estate Index provided 2+% more return for 6% more standard deviation (volatility). Reply35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
Thanks for the extra data! Please continue to keep us abrest of situation. I think it is an interesting perspective, but i am not sure how it compares to say NAV analysis (to be sure they may recommend similar buy points). Do you just work with it as an asset class, or do you preform other analysis for specific companies?It seems that the new wisdom tree dividend weighted global real estate ETF would be somewhat inline with your opinions.
Nice posts. Cheers from Osaka,
john Reply