Vanguard REIT Index VIPERs (VNQ)
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- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
- Key Asset Class Returns of the Week [view article]
- Performance for Harvard, Yale Endowments in 2008 [view article]
- Real Estate ETFs: Vanguard's REIT ETF Should Benefit When Volatility Subsides [view article]
- Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income [view article]
- Tracking 9 ETF Portfolios [view article]
- Yawning from the Market Sidelines, ETFs in Hand [view article]
- 8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [view article]
- Financial Crisis Hits REITs ETFs Hard [view article]
- Simple Asset Allocation Yardstick [view article]
- REITs: Uninspiring Valuations, Still Vulnerable to Housing Bust [view article]
- Harvard Endowment 2008 Performance [view article]
loading ...Recent VNQ Articles
- Key Asset Class Returns of the Week
- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud
- Real Estate ETFs: Vanguard's REIT ETF Should Benefit When Volatility Subsides
- Currency ETFs Shine Through Bleak Market
- Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income
- Tracking 9 ETF Portfolios
- 8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend
- Performance for Harvard, Yale Endowments in 2008
- Yawning from the Market Sidelines, ETFs in Hand
- Financial Crisis Hits REITs ETFs Hard
- Full List of Articles »
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Considine
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Hi NoFate:You could be correct that this is a 'Katrina-level' of disaster and if it is, models will be too conservative. That is always the case. My main point is that the declines that we have seen are within normal bounds (1-in-20 events are not like lightning strikes or Katrinas). a 10% chance of a 50% decline may be correct---but where did you get that number? Reply
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Your final chart seems to indicate that there is only a 30% chance that REITs will decline in price over the next year if I am reading it correctly. I think this is way too bullish.I think we are in a very unusual place with RE and the markets right now. So much so that they can't be modeled very well using historical data. It's like trying to predict a Katrina event or a bad earthquake with historical data.
Given the dizzy heights we are at on the Case-Shiller Index ...and the fact that things are really beginning to unravel ...I think it is impossible to predict anything, except down. I would predict something along the lines of a 10% chance that REITs will be higher in a year and 10% that they will get cut in half ...80% that they will be somewhere in between.
Thanks for responding though ...I respect your opinion even if I disagree! Reply
Considine
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
NoFate:If you read my article and thought that I was touting REIT's, I think you better read it again... Reply
Real Estate: How Far, How Fast? [view article]
Who do you think you are kidding? Using ICF as an example, it nearly tripled in 4 years!!I don't care what kind of software or math you are using, but this is a bubble. The REIT charts all look like NASDAQ in 2000!
The party is over -
1) Property values will revert to the mean (eventually).
2) There will be such a glut of RE out there rents will probably drop as well.
3) Pray we don't have a recession ...then we will have huge vacancy rates.
Anyway nice try, but I am not buying. In fact, what I AM buying is SRS (a double short against a REIT index). Reply
Lasik Doc
Commercial Real Estate Could Drop 15% -- Bloomberg [view article]
Hi, interesting blog. Thanks for the read!I just noticed in today’s headlines that the Realtors pending home sale index fell by 12.2% for July 2007. This is a huge drop especially considering that most economists thought it would only be off by 2%.
Today I noted in a San Diego real estate broker’s blog (www.brokerforyou.com/b.../) an interesting post about this as well as some really eye opening statistics for the San Diego real estate market.
You definitely want to view the chart posted on August 27th showing the one year value decline for condominiums in the San Diego area. This chart shows that in one zip code, values were off by over 34.2% in just this time period. When one considers that the top of the market was actually sometime around the summer of 2005, there is a good possibility that before this is over, some real estate values could be off by 50% or more from their peak.
San Francisco attorneys</font>...
Reply
The Problem With Vanguard VIPERs ETFs [view article]
It seems most ETFs are set up as open end index funds. Are you still down on Vanguard Vipers? ReplyThe Problem With Vanguard VIPERs ETFs [view article]
It seems most ETFs are set up as open end index funds. Are you still down on Vanguard Vipers? Replyercup
35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
Great post - much more insightful than you brief post earlier - thanks for the extra effort Reply35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
The WisdomTree international ETF (DRW) is 43.19% non-REIT (contains real estate management and development companies), has 222 holdings, pays 4.48% dividend yield,has 75% of its assets in four countries (Australia, Honk Kong, Japan and Singapore), and relative to the Dow Jones Real Estate Index provided 2+% more return for 6% more standard deviation (volatility). Reply35 Years of Yield Spreads: REITs vs Treasuries [view article]
Thanks for the extra data! Please continue to keep us abrest of situation. I think it is an interesting perspective, but i am not sure how it compares to say NAV analysis (to be sure they may recommend similar buy points). Do you just work with it as an asset class, or do you preform other analysis for specific companies?It seems that the new wisdom tree dividend weighted global real estate ETF would be somewhat inline with your opinions.
Nice posts. Cheers from Osaka,
john Reply
Equity REITs Not Yet At Fair Value [view article]
Thanks for the ETF comparisons. ReplyEquity REITs Not Yet At Fair Value [view article]
www.qvmgroup.com/inves...You are missing the entire point of yield spread analysis. The point is to compare a risk bearing yield to a risk-free yield. Rather than being "unfair" the comparison is essential, standard practice, and meaningul.
Please read my follow-up article for more.
If you prefer to compare REIT yields to some other yied yardstick, please tell me what you recommend and why. I will give it serious consideration. Reply
Equity REITs Not Yet At Fair Value [view article]
Comparing Treasury Bond yields to a market variable equity yield is unfair. The only risk to the Treasury Bond is in the credit of the US. The risk to an equity related yield of an ETF is of another scale . ReplyEquity REITs Not Yet At Fair Value [view article]
Comparison with other yields could be interesting. I may include that in a future update. The 10-yr Treasury is a conventional yield spread measure in the U.S., presumably because it has a constant and known credit risk level which cannot be said for non-sovereign debt. ReplyEquity REITs Not Yet At Fair Value [view article]
I am the process of seeking more history and will publish an update when and if I can get data prior to 2000. Thanks for the observation. I agree, longer is better. Reply