Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VIPERs (VWO)

All Comments on VWO

  • commenter
    netscorer
    Jun 17 07:29 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Jitomir,

    I don't agree with you very last statement. I think if one waits until the political powerplay in Ukraine stops and reforms are being implemented, there is still great upside potential. But at the same time the risks are being mitigated or, at least, minimized to a degree. This is what noone gets about smart investing. You don't have to search for the next best opportunity. Simply identifying an OK opportunity is enough as long as you know that you are covered on the downside. This is what made Buffet the greatest investor of all time. He never really tried to strike gold with each next acquisition or investment. He simply followed the very same rule that it's better to invest in great company with OK potential rather then invest in OK company with great potential.     Reply
  • commenter
    netscorer
    Jun 17 07:14 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Kintu,

    you obviously have not been to Crimea if you think any respectable tourist from West would want to go there. There is zero, I repeat, zero tourism infrastructure and what is there are ruins left from Soviet times. And because of corruption level and criminalized goverment no small business can survive in that environment, meaning the situation will not change until the reforms are going to be implemented. The only reason so many Russians visited Crimea year after year is simple habits that are hard to die all the way back from Soviet times. But even without any threat from Russia, the number of Russians travelling to Crimea every summer is getting smaller and smaller.

    michaelschn,

    please think next time before hitting the Submit button. You are just embarassing yourself with posts like this. I am not even going to argue with you. Open Wikipedia as Diego suggested and educate yourself of what country Ukraine is before opening your mouth.

    Diego,

    you answered your own question on what separated Russia and Brazil on one hand and China and India on the other from countries like Ukraine. The first two won a lottery named Oil&Gas, the last two made some significant reforms, both political as well as economical before they started to boom. There are always indicators on when country is about to explode economically. I agree with you that Ukraine is very attractive both from geographical situation and from peoples resource but until they do some meaningful reforms your investment money might just as well be spent playing a roulette. In fact, with roulette the upside potential is always higher and one obviously disregards all risks as you pointed.     Reply
  • commenter
    Jitomir
    Jun 17 12:27 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    I have been on short term teaching visits to Ukraine each year over a period of some 20 years and the economic changes in the last few years are astounding.

    The economic sector functions reasonably well by ignoring the political turmoil. There are problems in the environment but the opportunities outweigh, lots of locals & foreign investors are very successful.

    My problem is how to invest in Ukraine...........ther... is a shortage of investment opportunities for the foreign equity investor, even though there are dozens of new IPOs on Euro exchanges and many more are in planning. As in all investments, one must do due dilligence. There is a radical transformation process taking place in most major sectors. Example: Agriculture has been given up for dead, but in recent years mega agro-industrial enterprises, using the latest technology, have achieved very impressive results.

    Last October, I found this kind of company, listed on the Warsaw stock exchange, up roughly 500% in 8 months. Too bad the float is only 20%. But there are numerous similar companies in this sector following a similar business model.

    Agree with Diego, this is the time to invest in Ukraine, if you wait for a stable environment, your investment results are likely to be only average.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kintu
    Jun 17 04:33 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Netscorer, you can say the same about the Baltic countries where Russian money play very significant role. It creates problems and Ukrainian situation is even more complicated and some fallback is possible. But politically there is no way that Russia can stop Ukraine's affinity to the west.

    Just think about that Wizzair, a budget airline, in July is about to start flights from the UK to Kiev and Ukrainian Black sea resorts while Russians are threatening to stop Russian tourists visiting the Crimea. I am afraid that Russia may lose this card if the void is filled by the European tourists (no visas, cheap flights, change of destination).

    The high inflation makes me cautious to invest in Ukraine right now although CD deposits are actually insured up to $10,000 per bank.     Reply
  • commenter
    itemirus
    Jun 17 04:03 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Well, a lot of interesting points here - it looks like the main theme here is "Avoid Ukraine" because of this and that - BUT - imagine this thread was shifted ten years backwards and substitute Ukraine with Russia, Brazil, India, China...i know these are much bigger countries with lots of natural resources, but back then a lot of people was raising the same questions about politics, infrastructures, energy, inflation etc etc - the point is, once an economy is in its infancy it's easier to overweight the risks and overlook the opportunities.
    To michaelschn: come on! Climate the big difference? What about the baltic states, scandinavian states or Canada then? they should all be living in the dark ages according to you. Besides, back in soviet times, Ukraine was providing most of the crops for all of the CCCP. Open Wikipedia and read about the climate in Crimea - you'll find out something interesting.
    Once again, some of you are missing the point: we're dealing with Frontier Markets here, so avoiding risk shoud be taken out of the picture and thus risk shouldn't be made the case against investing in a frontier country. What i was stressing is that, compared to other frontier markets, Ukraine is overlooked; i am not complaining for the lack of a single country etf or fund, although i would like to see one, but for the lack of interest from the financial community in a country that has a lot of upside potential.
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill -     Reply
  • commenter
    michaelschn
    Jun 17 02:32 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    The big difference between Ukraine and countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan etc. is climate there. You need energy to produce things in these countries. In Ukraine you need a lot of energy to just survive. The only reliable energy resource Ukraine has is coal. But coal production is in horrible state. There are constant fatal accidents there. Production is in decline. On top of all this the current government considers miners its worse enemy, because they overwhelmingly support pro-Russian opposition. Ukrainian coalition parties rely on the rural and small towns electorate of the west and north of the country as well as on government employees in Kiev.

    On the other hand these villages and small towns can't produce anything valuable for the West. Their agriculture can't compete with much warmer countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary etc.

    Ironically, it makes Ukraine dependent on Russian natural gas and oil sold with huge discounts, (compared to international prices). This put Ukraine at complete mercy of Russian political games.

    With Russian policy of raising natural gas prices inside Russia itself (with the goal of reaching the world prices level by 2012) Ukraine faces a huge energy crisis. Unlike small nations like Latvia and Estonia which rely on Western financial support and on tourism (including sex tourism from UK and alcoholic tourism from Scandinavia) Ukraine is to big to get this kind of help.

    Considering all this and also the fact that much of the growth there is due to worldwide real estate bubble which is not sustainable I can't see how it may be a good place to invest in.     Reply
  • commenter
    netscorer
    Jun 16 11:59 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Kintu,
    I might side with panskeptik on the influence Russia has over Ukraine. In Ukraine politics money rule the ball and Russia is flush with oil money that it will not spare to restore its dominance over Ukraine. Yes, Russia made some costly mistakes in the past meddling with Ukraine but it learns very fast. With US in crisis both economically as well as politically, it can no longer play a containment role, so be prepared for Russia-backed party to win next presidential elections.     Reply
  • commenter
    TopForeignSt
    ocks
    Jun 16 07:27 PM
    My Website
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    I would agree Diego.Countries like Pakistan,Nigeria,Vietn... are not any better than Ukraine.In fact they are probably worse then Ukraine. I haven't heard of any Ukranian stocks or funds traded in US as ADRs.But if one goes as far as to invest in frontier markets like Indonesia, Vietname, Pakistan they might as well invest in Ukraine also.Just my 2 cents. Reply
  • commenter
    milkchaser
    Jun 16 05:16 PM
    My Website
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Last summer, I saw an ad in an Odessa bank window (in English!) offering 10% APR on savings deposits -- not CDs, just deposits. It was inviting, but there's nothing like FDIC over there. Likewise, Ukraine has a ways to go as far as protecting private property in the courts. Bribes are common and effective over there. The people have not come to trust or expect rule of law. Reply
  • commenter
    User 86945
    Jun 16 04:56 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Ukraine has improved without a doubt. But my problem with it is the inflation rate which is running around 30%. If they would slow the printing presses, equities may do well in the future. Until that time, Ukraine will get cheaper as will many other emerging markets. Reply
  • commenter
    Kintu
    Jun 16 01:04 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Panskeptik, I think you are overestimating Russia's power to influence Ukraine today. There is little what Russia can do if Ukraine manages to join NATO or the EU. The latest attempts (poisoning Yushchenko, raising gas prices, announcing visas for Ukrainians if they go with NATO) can only be seen as desperation.

    I agree that Ukraine is a very corrupted place with little morals but comparing with Pakistan, Oman or Nigeria, Ukraine is undoubtedly above all of them. Aside from political chaos it is a very stable society, people are rather well educated and have much greed to have the western "boons".     Reply
  • commenter
    netscorer
    Jun 16 01:00 PM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Diego,
    I would not invest into these countries as well. The risks are just unacceptable for the average investor who does not fully appreciates local market flavors as well as geopolitical situation in the 'emerging' countries. I just though that you provided a one-sided picture of Ukrainian market without proper warnings to the regular folks who have difficulty locating country on the map, set aside understanding underwater current driving that countrie's markets. If you are going to invesdt anywhere from 'Eastern Europe Block', I would select Russia, followed by Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Litva). With Russia you get the same upside potential as with Ukraine but without political instability and dependancy on outside energy resources.     Reply
  • commenter
    itemirus
    Jun 16 10:34 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Well netscorer, i know investing in Ukraine implies a lot of risk, but aren't we talking about Frontier Markets? Are Pakistan, Nigeria or Oman any better regarding corruption, political instability and the like? Yet they're all included in the Frontier 150 index - If i had to place a bet on a single state, for sure i'd choose Ukraine in place of the above mentioned countries. Reply
  • commenter
    Panskeptic
    Jun 16 10:29 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Without a firm grip on Ukraine, Russia largely loses its access to the Black Sea and associated naval bases. Considering Russia's resurgent nationalism and superpower ambitions, this is unimaginable. You must consider political risk in exactly how far Russia will allow Ukraine to wander. NATO or the EU, for example, appear way beyond Russia's tolerance level. None of this bodes well for the future of transparent capitalism in Ukraine. There is much sound political analysis at Stratfor.com. Reply
  • commenter
    netscorer
    Jun 16 09:28 AM
    Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market [view article]
    Ukraine is heavily buried in corruption and partisan politics. It's business market is dominated by oligarchs with deep politic ties and though Ukraine is not a player in the energy sector, it's fate is tied very closely to the fortunes of the oil and gas trade as most of the money flowing into Ukraine come from the neighbor Russia and most of the exports coming out of Ukraine are metals, which production cost is directly depended on natural gas prices. It's heavy industry is outdated and is only able to survive so far due to the negotiated contracts on gas imports from Russia below market prices. The only positive in Ukraine market is it's rich soil and growing agriculture sector. But with ambitions to join EU these sectors may get heavily clipped as EU already has already well established agriculture trade with no place for newcomers.
    So here it says - stay away from Ukraine until the country reforms it's corrupted system and until EU warms up to the idea of welcoming them into the alliance.     Reply
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