Tue, May 19, 6:54 PM
- As part of a change in analyst coverage for cloud software stocks, Needham's Scott Berg has launched coverage on Workday (NYSE:WDAY) and HealthStream (NASDAQ:HSTM) at Buy, upgraded Cornerstone OnDemand (NASDAQ:CSOD) to Strong Buy, and upgraded Ultimate Software (NASDAQ:ULTI) to Buy after the close. Though their product lines differ, all 4 companies have exposure to the cloud HR/talent management space.
- Berg on Workday: "[W]e believe WDAY has the combination that growth investors seek: large market, well positioned product versus industry megatrends, and a financial model that yields significant revenue visibility ... Although we believe the company's current valuation assumes almost flawless near-term sales execution to further expand its valuation multiples, we believe its execution within a HCM market exhibiting high demand creates a positive risk/reward scenario..." The remarks come ahead of Workday's May 26 FQ1 report.
- Berg on HealthStream: "We believe HealthStream uniquely benefits from two significant mega-trends; 1) the strong secular adoption rates within the Talent Management Enterprise Software subsector, and also 2) an environment that is increasingly regulated, requiring its products’ end users to evaluate competencies and train employees on a more frequent basis." The cloud healthcare software firm is a month removed from posting a Q1 beat.
- WDAY +0.7% AH to $91.28. CSOD +1.9% to $32.44. ULTI +1.2% to $170.29. HealthStream hasn't yet moved AH.
Wed, Apr. 29, 3:02 PM
- After following markets lower most of today, enterprise cloud software vendors have jumped thanks to a Bloomberg report stating cloud CRM software giant Salesforce ($51B market cap) has been approached by a potential buyer, and is working with bankers to field offers.
- Gainers include Workday (WDAY +6%), ServiceNow (NOW +4.3%), NetSuite (N +4.3%), Marketo (MKTO +2.7%), Zendesk (ZEN +1.2%), Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD +1.6%), Castlight (CSLT +2.4%), and Jive Software (JIVE +1.5%).
- Though the cloud software market has seen plenty of M&A activity, a Salesforce deal would easily be its largest. Workday ($17.5B market cap) is the second-largest enterprise cloud pure-play. ServiceNow ($11.6B) is #3.
Thu, Apr. 16, 4:32 PM
- Cloud IT service desk software leader ServiceNow beat Q1 estimates in spite of major forex headwinds, but also offered light Q2 and (to a lesser extent) full-year sales guidance, and forecast a slight Q/Q billings decline.
- Cloud CRM software leader Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is down 1.1% AH to $67.20, and cloud HR/financials software leader Workday (NYSE:WDAY) is down 2.8% to $87.25. Both companies are expected to report next month.
Wed, Mar. 4, 3:01 PM
- Today's notable tech gainers include Chinese online classifieds leader 58.com (WUBA +5.9%), CDN owner Limelight (LLNW +6.5%), account-protection software provider CyberArk (CYBR +3.2%), flash storage array vendor Violin Memory (VMEM +3.8%), online video ad platform Tremor Video (TRMR +4%), and Chinese mobile game publisher Sky-mobi (MOBI +11.9%).
- Notable decliners include cloud HR/financials software leader Workday (WDAY -5.8%), systems management software vendor SolarWinds (SWI -3.8%), chip packaging IP firm Tessera (TSRA -4.3%), security hardware/software provider KEYW Holding (KEYW -3.7%), and Chinese online real estate play E-House (EJ -4%). The Nasdaq is down 0.2%.
- Sky-mobi has flown higher since Rosenblatt Securities pounded the table for the company last week. Workday has fallen sharply since last week's FQ4 revenue beat. E-House has gradually declined this week since 58.com announced the purchase of Chinese real estate site Anjuke.
- Previously covered: Neustar, AeroVironment, Alibaba, SanDisk, Autohome/Bitauto, ReneSola, Trina, Ambarella/GoPro, Bazaarvoice, Veeva
Fri, Feb. 27, 2:59 PM
- Today's notable tech gainers include IP licensing firm VirnetX (VHC +8.1%), ultracapacitor maker Maxwell (MXWL +4.7%), local services marketplace Angie's List (ANGI +5.9%), voice processor developer Audience (ADNC +5.4%), Ethernet/Wi-Fi hardware maker Extreme Networks (EXTR +3.5%), Chinese polysilicon vendor Daqo (DQ +8.3%), Chinese mobile game published Sky-mobi (MOBI +9.8%), professional video hardware/software maker Avid (AVID +5.2%), and optical component vendors NeoPhotonics (NPTN +11%) and Oclaro (OCLR +5.2%).
- Notable decliners include cloud HR/financials software leader Workday (WDAY -3.5%), cloud IT service desk software leader ServiceNow (NOW -3.7%), industrial laser maker IPG Photonics (IPGP -3.1%), FPGA/mobile sensor hub maker QuickLogic (QUIK -4.5%), and NAND controller/4G transceiver vendor Silicon Motion (SIMO -4%). The Nasdaq is down 0.5%.
- Initially up post-earnings, Workday is now down 9% since beating FQ4 revenue estimates and offering in-line FY16 revenue guidance on Wednesday afternoon. Heavily-shorted VirnetX is up 33% since announcing on Feb. 18 the USPTO had denied five Apple patent review petitions. Maxwell (also heavily shorted) is up 17% since an insider buy was disclosed a week ago. Sky-mobi is up 20% since Rosenblatt Securities provided bullish coverage yesterday.
- Previously covered: Chinese Web/mobile stocks, SanDisk, Autobytel, DigitalGlobe, GoPro, Immersion, MoSys, Resonant, Infoblox, Aruba, UniPixel, Autodesk, Universal Display, TubeMogul, Nimble Storage
Wed, Feb. 25, 5:09 PM
- In addition to beating FQ4 revenue estimates (while posting in-line EPS), Workday (NYSE:WDAY) is guiding for FQ1 revenue of $242M-$245M, above a $239.5M consensus. With forex a headwind and the company prone to guiding conservatively, FY16 (ends Jan. '16) guidance is for revenue of $1.115B-$1.14B (+42%-45% Y/Y) vs. a $1.13B consensus.
- The cloud HR/financials software vendor's unearned revenue balance rose 53% Y/Y in FQ4 to $632.7M. That helped it post free cash flow of $10.6M in spite of an $11.5M net loss.
- Subscription revenue rose 64% Y/Y to $181.9M, and professional services revenue 42% to $44.4M. GAAP costs/expenses rose 46% Y/Y to $276.7M - sales/marketing spend totaled $88.5M, and R&D $89M.
- WDAY +1.9% AH to $95.75. Fellow cloud software giant Salesforce is soaring following its FQ4 report.
- FQ4 results, PR
Wed, Jan. 14, 1:20 PM
- A slew of tech companies have posted steep losses on a day the Nasdaq is down 1%.
- Major decliners include Pandora (P -5%), LED giant Cree (CREE -5.9%), cloud HR software leader Workday (WDAY -4.1%), chipmakers Ambarella (AMBA -5.3%), Pixelworks (PXLW -3.7%), Audience (ADNC -3.6%), Spansion (CODE -4.4%), and Cypress (CY -3.9%) (the last two are merger partners), OLED materials/IP provider Universal Display (OLED -4.2%), industrial automation tech provider Echelon (ELON -4.8%), and P2P lending giant/recent IPO LendingClub (LC -4.8%).
- Possibly affecting OLED: LG Display (NYSE:LPL) has been ordered to halt operations at an OLED TV panel production line following a gas leak that killed two workers.
- Cree and Pandora aren't far removed from their 52-week lows; the former reports on Jan. 20, and the latter on Feb. 5. LendingClub, whose selloff follows a volatile Tuesday, could be affected by a neutral coverage launch from Susquehanna.
Dec. 18, 2014, 2:04 PM
- With the help of stronger-than-expected hardware sales, Oracle (ORCL +9.2%) beat FQ2 estimates in spite of a 400 bps forex headwind (twice what was originally expected). FQ3 guidance was conservative after taking forex pressures into account.
- The numbers have been good enough for Oracle to surge to new highs and receive a slew of target hikes, and to lead many enterprise tech names to outperform amid a big market rally. The Nasdaq is up 1.9%.
- Microsoft (MSFT +3.2%), Cisco (CSCO +2.3%), EMC (EMC +3.7%), VMware (VMW +5.1%), and beaten-down IBM (IBM +2.8%) are among the enterprise tech names outperforming today. Others: SPLK +4.6%. CA +3.5%. RHT +3.4%. VRNS +6.3%. PCTY +5.8%. JIVE +4.6%. VMEM +5.2%. SAAS +4.7%. BRCD +3.8%.
- Oracle's healthy cloud software numbers are drawing attention: While traditional software license revenue fell 4% Y/Y, its SaaS/PaaS revenue rose 41%. SaaS/PaaS bookings totaled $170M, and are expected to be "well over" $1B in FY16 (ends May '16). Fusion cloud app bookings rose over 100%.
- On the CC (transcript), Oracle performed its customary trash-talking of cloud app rivals. "We are clearly growing faster than Salesforce (CRM +4%) and were more than three times the size of Workday (WDAY +3.2%)." Both firms are posting solid gains.
- Oracle's numbers come as Bloomberg reports the Chinese government is looking to "purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020." IBM, Cisco, and other U.S. firms have already seen their Chinese sales fall sharply following last year's NSA spying uproar.
Nov. 25, 2014, 2:51 PM
- "While investors’ first reaction was negative, we believe the initial FY16 'guidance' is very preliminary and conservative. The initial mgmt. view for the current FY15 called for rev growth of ~50%, and we are now modelling 68%," writes UBS, reiterating a Buy on Workday (NYSE:WDAY) post-earnings.
- The firm also thinks Workday's FQ4 outlook is conservative, and is forecasting FQ4 revenue $2M above the high end of Workday's guidance range. "FY16 looks to be a strong year for Fin’l Mgmt pdts, helped by Insight analytic apps [becoming generally available]. Europe has been a bit slow due to (1) entrenched competitors and (2) sales org. changes early in the yr, but should improve next yr."
- Canaccord (Buy) also isn't worried about the FY16 commentary ... for now. "If you dig into the numbers, the fact that WDAY intends to run its OpEx based on 40% revenue growth seems more like a conservative way to manage expectations than a statement of concern about the pace of business."
- Summit Research (Hold) is more cautious, noting Y/Y deferred revenue growth slowed to 8.3% in FQ3 from FQ2's 15.7% and FQ1's 19.7%. "We would expect deferred growth to at least match or exceed revenue growth in a SaaS business model like Workday’s."
- Wedbush (Outperform) thinks large deal activity was "more muted" in FQ3. But it's "optimistic about the [FQ4] contracting and large deal outlook, as our checks indicate that WDAY integrators are heavily loaded with projects and prospects, and Y/Y billings comparisons don't look overly difficult."
- Several targets have been cut, but that might have as much to do with Workday's YTD performance as anything else.
Nov. 25, 2014, 9:15 AM
Nov. 24, 2014, 5:43 PM
Nov. 24, 2014, 5:23 PM
- On its FQ3 CC, Workday (NYSE:WDAY) says it isn't providing FY16 (ends Jan. '16) guidance for now, but adds it isn't assuming it will see 40%+ growth. The consensus is for 47.2% growth.
- Shares have added to the AH losses they saw after the cloud HR leader provided in-line FQ4 guidance to go with an FQ3 beat.
Nov. 24, 2014, 4:32 PM
- Workday (NYSE:WDAY) is guiding for FQ4 revenue of $219M-$222M, +54%-56% Y/Y and in-line with a $220.5M consensus. That isn't being received well, given Workday's history of providing above-consensus guidance.
- Subscription revenue rose 75% Y/Y in FQ3 to $164.4M, exceeding total revenue growth of 68%. Workday's unearned revenue balance rose 44% Y/Y to $508.1M.
- Though Workday had a net loss of $5.3M, unearned revenue growth led free cash flow to total $13.3M. GAAP costs/expenses rose 58% Y/Y to $266.5M - sales/marketing spend amounted to $80.7M, R&D $85.3M, and G&A $28.8M.
- FQ3 results, PR
Sep. 22, 2014, 1:45 PM
- High-beta tech stocks are selling off hard as the Nasdaq registers a 1.3% decline. The selling is broad-based, with Internet, solar, and enterprise tech stocks all well-represented among the ranks of major decliners.
- Major Internet decliners: BIDU -4.7%. ANGI -7%. YELP -5.9%. AWAY -5.1%. CHGG -5.9%. GRUB -5.8%. P -5.2%. Z -4.6%. TRLA -4.8%. ATHM -7.9%. BITA -7%. DANG -5.9%. WB -5.3%.
- Solar: FSLR -4.5%. SCTY -7.5%. SPWR -4.5%. DQ -7.6%. JKS -5.5%. ASTI -6.3%. ENPH -5.5%. CSIQ -4.8%.
- Enterprise: WDAY -5.4%. GIMO -6.7%. VMEM -7.7%. IMPV -4.8%. MKTO -4.9%. SPRT -5.1%. CSOD -5.5%.
- Others: HIMX -4.6%. SIGM -5.6%. WATT -9.7%. CYNI -5.3%. ADNC -5.7%. PXLW -5%. SWIR -5.8%. MITK -6%. OCLR -6%.
Aug. 29, 2014, 1:00 PM
- Low expectations and a high short interest (11.9M shares as of Aug. 15) are proving a good mix for Veeva (VEEV +18.1%) following its FQ2 beat and guidance hike. Several firms have raised their targets.
- Workday (WDAY +5.5%), which sold off yesterday (and took peers down with it) following its FQ2 report, is following Veeva higher. As are Veeva partner Salesforce (CRM +2.1%) and several other cloud software names. NOW +2.9%. CTCT +3.4%. JIVE +2.5%. CSOD +2%. ULTI +1.9%. MKTO +1.9%.
- "We like [Veeva's] momentum with new products, the pace of customer deployments, and view the second-half guidance as likely conservative," says Deutsche (Buy).
- Pac Crest (Outperform) likes the fact Veeva's billings and subscription revenue each rose over 60% Y/Y, and that its large deal activity also grew. It sees a $5B addressable market for life sciences CRM/content management software.
Aug. 28, 2014, 2:45 PM
- Workday (WDAY -4.7%) has received several target hikes after beating FQ2 estimates and upping its FY15 (ends Jan. '15) guidance. But there have also been some cautious notes focused on cloud HR/financial software giant's valuation.
- Citi observes Workday trades at 15x 2015E sales, and says it has trouble seeing upside catalysts at current levels. Goldman points out Workday is trading at 11x estimated enterprise value/billings even if its upside scenario plays out.
- Cantor (target raised to $121) sees several reasons to be bullish. Among them: The ramp of Workday's recently-launched recruiting product; the pending launch of Workday Student; an enterprise software upgrade cycle; strong international growth (echoes of Salesforce); and expected announcements at the November Workday Rising conference.
- Wedbush (target raised to $106) expects new big data/analytics products to be shown off at the conference. It also sees room for a fresh guidance hike in 3 months, though it thinks it might be smaller than yesterday's hike.
- Workday used its CC (transcript) to hike its FY15 billings guidance by $50M to $940M-$960M (above revenue guidance of $760M-$770M). FQ3 billings guidance is at $225M-$230M (above revenue guidance of $200M-$205M).
- Salesforce (CRM -2%) and several other cloud software names are following Workday lower. CSOD -3.3%. MKTO -3.3%. DWRE -2.2%. JIVE -1.6%. N -1.4%.
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