Tony Daltorio • Sun, Dec. 7
SA News • Dec. 10, 2013
From other sites
- The grain belt in Russia and eastern Ukraine is suffering through drought and now below-normal cold.
- Experts on Russian agriculture are now forecasting a substantial drop in winter wheat production in the 2015-16 crop year.
- The drought is spreading in the region, which is supportive of higher wheat prices, already at 5-month highs.
Something You Need To Know About These Commodity ETFs
- CORN, SOYB, and WEAT are three ETFs that track the futures prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat.
- For long-term investors, fund expenses are an important consideration.
- The expense ratios in CORN, SOYB, and WEAT are very high, making them more suitable for trading rather than owning over the long term.
There are no Transcripts on WEAT.
Mon, Nov. 10, 12:14 PM
- It's lower yields at work, with the USDA now expecting 173.4 bushels per acre vs. 174.2 last month and the trade guess of 175.2.
- The bean crop is now estimated at 3.958B bushels vs. 3.927B last month and trade's expectation of 3.967B.
- Wheat ending stocks of 644M bushels compares to last month's 654M.
- Corn fired, but has quickly fallen back - now up marginally on the session after initially jumping around 2%. In the green earlier, beans are now lower by 1%, and wheat also erases early gains, now flat on the session.
- ETFs: CORN, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, GRU, WEET
Fri, Oct. 10, 12:20 PM
- The USDA estimate for this season's corn yield of 174.2 bushels per acre is up from 171.7 bushels one month ago, and compares to trade estimates of 174.7. Production of 14.475B bushels compares to trade estimates of 14.506B bushels. Ending stocks of 2.081B bushels vs. estimate of 2.13B.
- Soybean yields of 47.1 bushels is up from 46.6 last month, and vs. estimates of 47.6. The crop size of 3.927B bushels stands against estimates of 3.976B, and last month's estimate of 3.913B. Ending stocks of 450M bushels vs. estimate of 472M.
- Wheat ending stocks of 654M bushels drops from 698M last month and compares to estimates of 704M.
- Bottom line: Already big corn and bean crops got bigger.
- Corn and beans are off a few cents, while the price of wheat jumps nearly a dime per bushel on the low stocks estimate.
- ETFs: CORN, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, GRU, WEET
Wed, Oct. 1, 11:20 AM
- Contrarian antennae may be perking up as Goldman - following brutal multi-month runs lower in all of the grains - cuts its price forecast for soybeans, corn, and wheat.
- First up is beans (SOYB -0.2%), which Goldman says are overpriced relative to corn. Given the forecast for ending stocks, a 2.6:1 ratio for beans to corn, or $8 per bushel, is appropriate. Goldman's previous forecast called for beans at $10.50.
- Corn (CORN -0.1%) is cut to $3 per bushel from $4 amid strong U.S. crop yields and a lower export forecast. Wheat (WEAT -0.9%), says Goldman, deserves a 50% premium to corn given the current inventory situation, and this works out to $4.50 per bushel (from $5.60 previous).
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Tue, Sep. 30, 12:07 PM
- The early decline in WTI crude oil has accelerated sharply over the past few minutes, and it's now off 3.5% to $91.25 per barrel, about inline with the lowest pricing seen this year. USO -2.9%
- Moving alongside is heating oil (UHN -1.1%) and gasoline (UGA -3.1%).
- Broad energy ETFs: DBE, RJN, JJE, ONG, RGRE, UBN
- Checking other commodities: Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) is down 3.4%, Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is lower by 1.3%, and Wheat (NYSEARCA:WEAT) is off 1.8%.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSC, GSP, RGRC, DJCI, LSC, FTGC, DEE, UCI, DYY, CMD, BCM, DDP, UCD, CMDT, SBV, DPU, CSCB, CSCR
Mon, Sep. 22, 2:58 PM
- Commodity prices as measured by the Total Return Bloomberg Commodities Index reaches new five-year lows, hit by a strengthening dollar, the prospect of a record grain harvest in the U.S. and concerns over weakening economic growth in China.
- The index has dropped more than 12% since the end of June amid falling prices for commodities such as crude oil, soybeans and gold.
- Even industrial metals, one of this year’s best performers in commodities, have started to come under pressure; nickel has dropped 10% since the end of June, copper prices are at three-month lows, and iron ore trades below $80/ton for the first time since 2009.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, DBA, CORN, USLV, UCO, ZSL, UGL, SCO, DGP, GLL, JJC, RJA, JJG, UGLD, BNO, WEAT, DZZ, DTO, SOYB, DBO, DSLV, DGL, CRUD, DBS, DAG, DGZ, JJA, DGLD, USL, GRU, DBE, UWTI, JJN, DNO, DWTI, RJN, USV, RGRA, AGA, UBG, AGF, CPER, SZO, BAR, FUD, USAG, OLO, UAG, WEET, DIRT, JJE, BARS, TAGS, NINI, CUPM, ONG, RGRE, ADZ, OLEM, UBN
Fri, Sep. 19, 11:12 AM
- It's new contract lows across the board in the grains with Dec. corn -1% to $3.34 per bushel, Dec. wheat -2.2% to $4.77, and Nov. beans -1% to $9.61.
- Related ETFs: CORN -1.2%, WEAT -2.1%, SOYB -1.5%, JJG -1.5%.
- For wheat it's a 4-year low following last week's USDA report estimating a record worldwide harvest of 720M metric tons. The USDA also said wheat exports of 314.5 tons in the week ended Sept. 11 were less than half the previous week.
- The same supply report also predicted record U.S. harvests for both corn and beans.
Fri, May. 9, 2:45 PM
- The corn harvest will hit a record 13.935B bushels this year, says the USDA in its latest report, bringing U.S. stockpiles to 1.726B bushels, higher than analyst forecasts. Global stockpiles will jump 8% to 181.7M metric tons thanks in part to big crops in Ukraine and Brazil.
- Analysts were taken by surprise by the big U.S. supply figure given farmer intentions of planting 4M fewer acres than last year, but the USDA is banking on normal weather, seeing the harvest at 165.3 bushels/acre, up 6.5 bushels from a year ago. "These are big, bearish numbers," says a futures broker, but "we still have to go out and produce the crop."
- July corn is off 7 cents to $5.09 per bushel. CORN -2%
- July wheat is off 7.25 cents to $7.28 per bushel after the USDA pegs global inventories at 187.4M metric tons, up from 186.5M for the current season. WEAT -0.8%
- July soybeans are higher by 17.5 cents to $14.87 per bushel after the USDA cuts its stockpile estimate to 130M bushels from 135M. The agency sees production this crop year at 3.635B bushels from 3.289B a year ago. SOYB +0.5%
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Tue, Apr. 29, 7:15 PM
- U.S. government forecasters predict a more than 65% chance for an El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of the year, a development that threatens to drive up prices for food and other staples.
- El Niño has a reputation for triggering sharp run-ups for prices in markets as diverse as nickel, coffee and soybeans, and commodities investors, traders and analysts are bracing for impact at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
- Global food prices - which at the start of 2014 were expected to be largely flat this year - could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Niño occurs, says World Bank economist James Baffes.
- But Société Générale analysts say it is miners, not farmers, who have the most to worry about; since 1991, nickel prices rose the most (13.9%) during El Niño years among commodities the bank tracks.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, DBC, JO, JJC, RJA, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, DJP, SGG, DBB, COW, NIB, GSG, RJI, CAFE, BAL, GCC, DAG, USCI, JJA, GRU, CHOC, CANE, JJN, RGRA, AGA, JJT, RGRC, CPER, AGF, GSP, BOM, RJZ, JJU, GSC, LSC, FUD, DJCI, USAG, BOS, SGAR, JJM, DEE, BDD, UCI, LD, WEET, UAG, DYY, DIRT, BCM, CMD, DDP, NINI, JJS, CTNN, TAGS, UBC, CUPM, FOIL, UCD, ADZ, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, CMDT, BDG, SBV, USMI, DPU, LSTK, CSCB, GRWN, HEVY, CSCR
Mon, Mar. 10, 12:12 PM
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Fri, Jan. 10, 12:25 PM
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Fri, Jan. 10, 5:08 AM
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to lift its estimate today for the 2013 corn harvest (CORN) to 14.05B bushels from a prediction in December of 13.99B bushels.
- That would make last year's output the largest in U.S. history, surpassing the crop of 13.1B bushels in 2009.
- If confirmed, the estimates are likely to add pressure to corn prices, which hit a 3 1/2 year low of $4.08 a bushel yesterday before closing at $4.12. That was still down 1.2%, with the decline also due to falling exports. Corn has dropped 2.4% this year after plummeting 40% in 2013.
- Wheat prices suffered as well yesterday from poor overseas sales, hitting a two-year low of $5.785 a bushel before recovering a bit to close -0.8% at $5.8425.
- ETFs: DBA, RJA, WEAT, DAG, JJA, AGA, RGRA, AGF, FUD, USAG, DIRT, UAG, WEET, TAGS, ADZ
Dec. 10, 2013, 1:31 PM
- Wheat prices could fall as world reserves are forecast to exceed previous expectations.
- Global inventories before the start of the 2014 harvests in the Northern Hemisphere will be 2.4% higher than a year ago.
- Wheat futures for delivery next spring touched their lowest level since June 2012 earlier today.
- Related stocks: General Mills (GIS), PepsiCo (PEP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Post Holdings (POST), ConAgra (CAG), Ralcorp (RAH), Flower Foods (FLO), and J.M. Smucker (SJM) could see a minor impact from sustained lower wheat prices. The pricing of the commodity also spills over to affect the costs for companies farther removed from the food industry - including Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD).
- Related ETF: WEAT
Oct. 5, 2013, 8:25 AM
- The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
- Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
- Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:05 AM
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
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WEAT vs. ETF Alternatives
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