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WEAT vs. ETF Alternatives
"The Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT) provides investors unleveraged direct exposure to wheat without the need for a futures account. The Teucrium Wheat Fund was also designed to reduce the effects of backwardation and contango. The investment objective of the Fund is to have the daily changes in percentage terms of the Shares’ NAV reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of a weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts for wheat (“Wheat Futures Contracts”) that are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (“CBOT”), specifically: (1) the second-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, weighted 35%, (2) the third-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, weighted 30%, and (3) the CBOT Wheat Futures Contract expiring in the December following the expiration month of the third-to-expire contract, weighted 35%."
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Monday, Mar 1012:12 PM
Monday, Mar 1012:12 PM| Comment!
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Friday, Jan 1012:25 PM
Friday, Jan 1012:25 PM| 2 Comments
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Monday, Sep 302013, 3:49 PM
Monday, Sep 302013, 3:49 PM| 2 Comments
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Thursday, Sep 122013, 1:07 PM
Thursday, Sep 122013, 1:07 PM| Comment!
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Monday, Aug 262013, 8:05 AM
Monday, Aug 262013, 8:05 AM| 1 Comment
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Monday, Aug 122013, 12:26 PM
Monday, Aug 122013, 12:26 PM| 4 Comments
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Friday, Jan 112013, 12:13 PMThe inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. |Friday, Jan 112013, 12:13 PM| Comment!
Thursday, Oct 112012, 9:16 AMGrains soar as the USDA lowers its estimate of corn ending stocks to 619M bushels from 733M in September. The cut comes even as it raises its forecast of harvested acres to 360K. What happens, asks Arlan Suderman, if the USDA is forced to cut harvested acres in its next report? Yikes. Corn +4%, Beans +2.1%, Wheat +1.5%. |Thursday, Oct 112012, 9:16 AM| 2 Comments
Friday, Sep 282012, 8:56 AMCorn soars 3% as the USDA announces stocks at just 988M bushels, the low end of the expected range. Prior to the report, corn had tumbled about $1/bushel over the past month. Wheat stocks also came in low, suggesting greater-than-expected feed use for both grains. Bean stocks beat expectations after the USDA "finds" another 38M bushels from last year's crop. Wheat +2%, Beans flat. |Friday, Sep 282012, 8:56 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, Aug 212012, 3:18 PM"For the first time in this rally, there is a feel of commercial panic," says a broker after a 2nd day of the Pro Farmer crop tour adds to worries over the security of physical grain supplies (day 1 report here). "You cannot load soybean futures in a ship and send to China (or) feed to chickens and hogs ... panic is in the physical ownership." Price records are falling everywhere. JJG +2.2%. |Tuesday, Aug 212012, 3:18 PM| 8 Comments
Monday, Aug 132012, 4:32 PMChina plans to release corn and rice from state reserves to cool inflation and ease import needs. The amount isn't yet known, but is estimated to be around 2M tons (the country consumes 10-15M tons monthly). The grains were sharply lower today as traders mostly sell Friday's news of a short crop. Corn -2.2%, Beans -3.1%, Wheat -3.2%. |Monday, Aug 132012, 4:32 PM| 1 Comment
Monday, Jul 302012, 8:18 AMGrain futures rally sharply following their first week of decline since early summer as a little bit of rain fails to stem reports of crop damage. While soybeans could still be saved by decent rainfall, a good portion of the U.S. corn crop is past the pollination stage and beyond repair. Sept. Corn +2.7% to $819/bushel, Sept. Beans +2.3%, Sept. Wheat +2%. |Monday, Jul 302012, 8:18 AM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jul 122012, 12:23 PMIn response to the USDA's reduced corn crop forecast, Barclays is raising its price forecasts for corn, soy, wheat, and other soft commodities. That's helping some agriculture ETFs rally on a down day. CORN +2.8%. WEAT +2.1%. SOYB +0.8%. JJG +2%. GRU +2.1%. JJA +1%. |Thursday, Jul 122012, 12:23 PM| Comment!
Wednesday, Jul 112012, 12:01 PMReport buyers get burned as corn moves 1.3% lower on the day, a full $0.40 off the level hit in the minutes after the USDA confirmed what everyone has known for weeks - the harsh weather is hurting the crop. Beans and wheat remain higher, but also sharply off post-report levels. |Wednesday, Jul 112012, 12:01 PM| 12 Comments
Thursday, Jan 122012, 3:22 PMThere's carnage in the grain pits after today's final USDA report on the 2011 harvest shows greater-than-expected production and ending stocks, surprising traders who had been leaning the other way. Corn was locked limit down all day, -6.1% at $6.11/bushel. Wheat -6.2% at $6.01. Beans -1.6% at $11.83. (ag stocks) |Thursday, Jan 122012, 3:22 PM| 6 Comments
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x oil -field:: ..''and to breathe.'' The cold war[s] are over.
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Energysystems:: My next project is to build a pizza oven, Man Lab(James May of Top Gear) recently had an episode building one. Stone+cornmeal is the way.
1980XLS:: Corn meal acts like marbles between the paddle and the dough.