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WEAT vs. ETF Alternatives
"The Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT) provides investors unleveraged direct exposure to wheat without the need for a futures account. The Teucrium Wheat Fund was also designed to reduce the effects of backwardation and contango. The investment objective of the Fund is to have the daily changes in percentage terms of the Shares’ NAV reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of a weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts for wheat (“Wheat Futures Contracts”) that are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (“CBOT”), specifically: (1) the second-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, weighted 35%, (2) the third-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, weighted 30%, and (3) the CBOT Wheat Futures Contract expiring in the December following the expiration month of the third-to-expire contract, weighted 35%."
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Friday, Jan 1012:25 PM
Friday, Jan 1012:25 PM| 2 Comments
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Friday, Jan 105:08 AM
Friday, Jan 105:08 AM| 1 Comment
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to lift its estimate today for the 2013 corn harvest (CORN) to 14.05B bushels from a prediction in December of 13.99B bushels.
- That would make last year's output the largest in U.S. history, surpassing the crop of 13.1B bushels in 2009.
- If confirmed, the estimates are likely to add pressure to corn prices, which hit a 3 1/2 year low of $4.08 a bushel yesterday before closing at $4.12. That was still down 1.2%, with the decline also due to falling exports. Corn has dropped 2.4% this year after plummeting 40% in 2013.
- Wheat prices suffered as well yesterday from poor overseas sales, hitting a two-year low of $5.785 a bushel before recovering a bit to close -0.8% at $5.8425.
- ETFs: DBA, RJA, WEAT, DAG, JJA, AGA, RGRA, AGF, FUD, USAG, DIRT, UAG, WEET, TAGS, ADZ
Tuesday, Dec 102013, 1:31 PM
Tuesday, Dec 102013, 1:31 PM| Comment!
- Wheat prices could fall as world reserves are forecast to exceed previous expectations.
- Global inventories before the start of the 2014 harvests in the Northern Hemisphere will be 2.4% higher than a year ago.
- Wheat futures for delivery next spring touched their lowest level since June 2012 earlier today.
- Related stocks: General Mills (GIS), PepsiCo (PEP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Post Holdings (POST), ConAgra (CAG), Ralcorp (RAH), Flower Foods (FLO), and J.M. Smucker (SJM) could see a minor impact from sustained lower wheat prices. The pricing of the commodity also spills over to affect the costs for companies farther removed from the food industry - including Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD).
- Related ETF: WEAT
Saturday, Oct 52013, 8:25 AM
Saturday, Oct 52013, 8:25 AM| 9 Comments
- The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
- Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
- Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Monday, Sep 302013, 3:49 PM
Monday, Sep 302013, 3:49 PM| 2 Comments
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Thursday, Sep 122013, 1:07 PM
Thursday, Sep 122013, 1:07 PM| Comment!
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Monday, Aug 262013, 8:05 AM
Monday, Aug 262013, 8:05 AM| 1 Comment
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Monday, Aug 122013, 12:26 PM
Monday, Aug 122013, 12:26 PM| 4 Comments
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Wednesday, May 152013, 11:38 AMAgricultural commodity prices (DBA) could fall a big 13% over the next year, says Goldman, predicting bumper crops across the globe. With weak demand and a record South American harvest (CORN, SOYB, WEAT) already in the books, it would require a major weather shock in the U.S. to keep prices near current levels. Earlier: Deere tumbles as poor weather slows U.S. planting progress. |Wednesday, May 152013, 11:38 AM| Comment!
Friday, Feb 82013, 3:40 PMBeans (SOYB -2.6%) tumble as stronger Brazilian production has the USDA upping its forecast for ending stockpiles by a greater-than-expected 1.1% to 60.1M tons. Estimated corn (CORN -0.5%) inventories are raised 5% to a 632M bushels, but it's not enough to send prices lower as the level remains the lowest in the U.S. since 1995. |Friday, Feb 82013, 3:40 PM| Comment!
Friday, Jan 112013, 12:13 PMThe inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. |Friday, Jan 112013, 12:13 PM| Comment!
Thursday, Jan 32013, 9:19 AMThe grains continue a tough post-U.S. harvest run with news today of China cancelling another order - this one 11.6M bushels of American beans. In the meantime, better weather is improving prospects for South America's crops. Beans -1.1%, Corn -0.7%, Wheat -0.2%. |Thursday, Jan 32013, 9:19 AM| Comment!
Monday, Nov 122012, 12:47 PMThe grains get a downgrade from Goldman following Friday's USDA report raising harvest estimates. Acknowledging continued tight supplies of corn and wheat, Goldman says "risks of critically tight soybean inventories continue to fade quickly." The grains are off sharply today: CORN -3.1%, SOYB -2.8%, WEAT -1.6%. |Monday, Nov 122012, 12:47 PM| Comment!
Friday, Oct 192012, 7:27 AM
Thursday, Oct 112012, 9:16 AMGrains soar as the USDA lowers its estimate of corn ending stocks to 619M bushels from 733M in September. The cut comes even as it raises its forecast of harvested acres to 360K. What happens, asks Arlan Suderman, if the USDA is forced to cut harvested acres in its next report? Yikes. Corn +4%, Beans +2.1%, Wheat +1.5%. |Thursday, Oct 112012, 9:16 AM| 2 Comments
Friday, Sep 282012, 8:56 AMCorn soars 3% as the USDA announces stocks at just 988M bushels, the low end of the expected range. Prior to the report, corn had tumbled about $1/bushel over the past month. Wheat stocks also came in low, suggesting greater-than-expected feed use for both grains. Bean stocks beat expectations after the USDA "finds" another 38M bushels from last year's crop. Wheat +2%, Beans flat. |Friday, Sep 282012, 8:56 AM| 1 Comment