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SA News • Fri, Nov. 14
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Wells Fargo Is An Attractive Income Investment In The Financial Industry
- Wells Fargo has performed well over the last several years, even during the financial crisis.
- Wells Fargo has industry-leading fundamentals.
- Wells Fargo offers a high initial yield, high dividend growth and a low payout ratio.
- Wells Fargo has the lowest EV/EBITDA ratio among its peers and trades at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value.
Why Investors Should Choose Royal Bank Over Wells Fargo
- Royal Bank and Wells Fargo have comparable business, although the American bank is nearly three times larger than Canada's biggest bank by market capitalization.
- Wells Fargo has a slightly more flexible balance sheet than Royal, but trades at a higher forward earnings multiple.
- Royal Bank did not cut its dividend during the financial crisis and its current quarterly payout is 50% higher than it was in 2007-2008.
- Based on a similar earnings growth outlook for both of these companies, Royal Bank appears to be the better opportunity due to its lower valuation and higher dividend yield.
- WFC is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor following the ModernGraham approach.
- According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is significantly undervalued at the present time.
- The market is implying 3.19% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the rate the company has seen in recent years.
Shrinking Interest Margins Weigh On Wells Fargo's Q3 Results
- Q3 saw a drop in interest rate margin of 9 basis points. However financial results continued to be impressive despite falling interest rate margins.
- Interest income increased, largely through effective dilution.
- Wells Fargo passed the Reserve Bank’s stress test and demonstrated its ability to wither future economic storms.
- It presented opportunity for dividend investors through strong capital position and effective risk management approach.
- Capital gain seeking investors may also reap rewards through share repurchases.
Wells Fargo - Solid Results, But What Can Drive Appeal Further?
- Wells Fargo posts results which are in line with expectations.
- The report shows continued weakness in the housing market and potentially emerging issues in the automotive market.
- I remain cautious despite the fair valuation and the appealing dividend yield, seeing a lack of further triggers.
Does The Wells Fargo Whisper Number Indicate Investor Confidence?
- The whisper number is $1.02, in-line with the analysts' estimate.
- Wells Fargo has a 40% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 16 of the 40 earnings reports for which we have data).
- The overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
- Wells Fargo & Company is scheduled to report 3Q 2014 earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday, October 14th.
- Earnings Per Share: The current Street estimate is $1.02 (range $0.95 to $1.05).
- Revenues: Analysts expect an increase of 3.0% y/y to $21.08 billion (range $20.74 billion to $21.53 billion).
Why Wells Fargo Is Going Higher: 5-Year Forward Price Target Of $85
- With great prospects for future growth given Wells Fargo's strong position in the commercial banking sector, I believe the stock is a buy even at the current price.
- Having met, and in most cases beaten earnings estimates for the past 11 quarters running, I believe Wells Fargo can achieve 20% annual EPS growth for the next five years.
- I forecast a price target of $85 based on a 7% discount rate, and 20% growth in earnings and dividends per share.
- Wells Fargo bank has best share price gain over the past ten years among other leading US banks.
- It is the country's market leader in mortgage origination and provides banking services to one-third of US households.
- Several key metrics for profitability and efficiency show Wells Fargo is a leading bank among its peers.
Wells Fargo: Should You Still Buy Wells Fargo Close To Its 52-Week High?
- Wells Fargo is one of the best run Wall Street banks with strong earnings momentum and dividend growth.
- Wells Fargo also managed so far to stay out of trouble with the Department of Justice, which kept caused some troubles for Citigroup and Bank of America shareholders.
- At 1.72x book value and close to its 52-week high, is Wells Fargo a Buy, Hold or Sell?
- First, we'll go over the terms of the warrants, including strike price, expiration date, and adjustment terms.
- Next we'll try to find a reasonable forward valuation for Wells Fargo common stock through 2018.
- Lastly, we'll compare the returns of the warrants to the returns of the common stock.
How Will The Housing Market Impact Wells Fargo Going Forward?
- Based on economic growth rates, restricted supply, and steadily rising house prices, I am optimistic about Wells Fargo's exposure to the sector.
- Wells Fargo is in a good position to weather any potential downturns in the housing market, with almost half of its revenues originating from non-interest income.
- The bank's performance across its Community Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement functions places Wells Fargo as one of the leading consumer banks in the United States.
- WFC's stock is an excellent combination of value and dividend growth stock.
- WFC's stock still has plenty of room to move up.
- WFC's stock is ranked third among all S&P 500 stocks yielding more than 2%, according to Portfolio123’s "All-Stars: Graham" powerful ranking system.
Wells Fargo Offers An Attractive Combination Of Dividends And Capital Gains.
- Wells Fargo continues to perform well as evidenced by its stellar Return on Assets.
- WFC consistently trades a premium to book value due to its high returns.
- I expect WFC book value and dividend rate to consistently grow over the next couple of years.
- Wells Fargo shares have doubled in the past two years.
- The company's decent dividend has room to expand through increased earnings and a higher payout ratio.
- What do total returns look like over the short and medium terms?
- We pitch two companies from the banking sector, Wells Fargo and BB&T, against one another in the latest instalment of our Head-To-Head series.
- The article focuses on the relative strengths and weaknesses of Wells Fargo and BB&T based on business performance and dividends/forecasts.
- It ends with discussion of the current valuations of the two companies, and details whether Wells Fargo represents good relative value at current price levels.
- We chose to compare Wells Fargo and BB&T because of their similar yields, but markedly different recent financial performance.
- Wells Fargo failed to beat its sequential performance for the first time in five years.
- Quantitative easing and poor performance of the mortgage segment are the biggest challenges for the bank.
- Medium-long term prospects of the sector look good, as the quantitative easing program is decreased, which will increase the net interest margins of the banks.
Wells Fargo: Returning More Capital To Share Holders
- Strong quarterly profits exceed $5.7 billion.
- Returning capital to shareholders through share buy backs and dividends.
- Analyst remain bullish on stock upside.
High-Yielding Wells Fargo Is The San Antonio Spurs Of The Investing World
- Wells is a true champion which is well orchestrated.
- When it loses talent it has people that can step in and keep the well oiled machine running.
- This company keeps chugging along with what I believe to be not so exciting earnings reports, but not so exciting wins all the time.
Fri, Nov. 14, 7:34 AM
- Ocwen Financial's (NYSE:OCN) agreement to buy the MSRs on $39B UPB of mortgages from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) was originally announced in January to the great excitement of Ocwen investors. Shortly after, however, Ben Lawsky held up the deal as his office examined the servicing practices at Ocwen, and its relationships with the Altisource companies.
- The two today announce a mutual decision to cancel the deal. For Wells, the cancellation won't be material to its financial results.
- Source: Press release
- Ocwen is down 6.7% premarket.
Tue, Oct. 14, 8:30 AM
- Q3 net income of $5.7B or $1.02 per share up 3% from a year ago.
- Net interest income of $10.9B up $150M from Q2, as strong asset growth was offset by a nine basis point drop in net interest margin to 3.06% - consumer deposits are rushing in, but bank is having trouble finding someplace to invest the cash.
- Noninterest income of $10.3B is flat from Q2, with mortgage banking income of $1.6B off $90M. Residential mortgage originations of $48B were $1B higher on the quarter.
- Noninterest expense of $12.2B increased $54M from Q2. The efficiency ratio improves to 57.7% from 57.9%.
- Total loans of $838.9B up $9.9B from Q2.
- Conference call at 10 ET
- WFC -0.9% premarket
- Previously: Wells Fargo EPS in-line, beats on revenue
Thu, Sep. 25, 3:09 PM
- Today's resignation of Attorney General Eric Holder could mark the beginning of the end of the Justice Department’s push to hold big banks accountable for their conduct leading up to the financial crisis.
- Several big banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS -2.1%) and Wells Fargo (WFC -1.1%), are still under investigations by the Justice Department for their sale of flawed mortgage securities before 2008, but settlements in those cases are expected to be much smaller than the big sums extracted from Bank of America (BAC -1.8%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM -2%) and Citigroup (C -2.2%).
- Another sign that the big bank cases may be winding down: Tony West, who was Holder’s point man in the bank settlement talks, recently left the Justice Department to join PepsiCo as its general counsel.
Thu, Sep. 18, 12:53 PM
- Banks, insurers, brokerages and anything else starved for yield continue to gain following yesterday's FOMC news. Among the gainers are Bank of America (BAC +1.9%) - which breaks above $17 for the first time since April - Citigroup (C +2.7%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.1%), PNC (PNC +1.1%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.7%), SunTrust (STI +1.2%), Schwab (SCHW +2.3%), Prudential (PRU +2.5%), and Lincoln National (LNC +2.4%).
- The XLF +1.2%, KBE +1.5%, and KRE +2%.
- Financial sector ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, KBWB, FNCL, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, FINZ
- Lit up bright red is the utility sector (XLU -1%), led by Southern Company (SO -1.1%), Dominion Resources (D -1.2%), Duke Energy (DUK -1.4%), and Pinnacle West (PNW -1.9%).
- Utility ETFs: XLU, IDU, VPU, UPW, RYU, FUTY, PUI, FXU, SDP, PSCU
Tue, Sep. 9, 12:24 PM
- The Fed intends to impose a capital surcharge on banks tougher than the international standard, according to Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo's prepared remarks for the Senate Banking Committee. Those banks with heavier reliance on short-term funding like overnight loans - i.e. Goldman Sachs (GS -1%) and Morgan Stanley (MS -1.8%) - will likely face even more rigorous requirements.
- Officials haven't yet decided on a number, but reportedly are considering as much as 200 basis points more than the top range of 2.5% of risk-weighted assets agreed to by international regulators.
- What's not yet clear is who would need to raise capital to meet the new, tougher standard.
- Citigroup (C -1%), Bank of America (BAC -0.6%), JPMorgan (JPM -1.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC -0.4%), State Street (STT -1.1%), Bank of New York Mellon (BK -0.9%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, KCE, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ
Fri, Jun. 20, 2:33 PM
- A deal between Ocwen Financial (OCN +0.9%) and the New York Dept. of Financial Services is near, reports Inside Mortgage Finance, with a source saying the Wells Fargo (WFC) matter "will come to a head shortly. That source also questions whether Ben Lawsky will charge Ocwen with anything at all.
- To review: New York DFS chief Lawsky - amid an investigation into Ocwen's servicing practices - put a moratorium on Ocwen's purchasing any more packages of mortgage servicing rights, including a $2.7B deal with Wells Fargo.
- Ocwen was up nearly 3% right after the rumor hit the wires, but has given back much of the gain.
Mon, May. 5, 10:20 AM
- A check of the global banks finds the group pacing market declines in morning action after Friday night's warning on Q2 trading revenue from JPMorgan (JPM -2.2%).
- Nomura's Steven Chubak is first out with lower JPMorgan earnings estimates.
- Jim Cramer sums up sentiment: "This has been a house of pain. You can't own these right now. You just can't."
- Morgan Stanley (MS -1.9%), Goldman Sachs (GS -1.5%), Citigroup (C -1.2%), and Bank of America (BAC -1%), Deutsche Bank (DB -1.2%). Far less trading dependent than the other Too Big Too Fails is Wells Fargo (WFC -0.2%).
- The iShares DJ U.S. Broker-Dealer ETF (IAI -1.2%)
- XLF -0.7%, KBE -0.8%
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, PFI, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, KCE, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KBWC
Wed, Apr. 23, 2:45 PM
- BNY Mellon (BK +2.1%) has hired Goldman Sachs to find a buyer for the unit, reports Bloomberg, and is expected to begin receiving offers in about a month. The corporate trust arm assists companies with making payments on debt they issue as well as helping customers recover funds in event of default.
- The business services about $12T in outstanding debt, with 3.5K employees at 61 global offices, but has become less lucrative since the financial crisis made the packaging and selling of loans a more difficult business. Possible buyers could be large commercial banks looking to build out their own trust business such as Bank of America (BAC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), or PNC Financial, says Guggenheim's Marty Mosby.
- On a recent earnings call, BNY management said run-off in the unit would cut annual revenue by $50M-$75M annually, roughly 0.5% of total bank revenue.
Fri, Apr. 11, 10:52 AM
- Overall traffic to branches was strong in Q1 despite the brutal winter weather (JPM's CFO notably blamed the weather for having a role in its weak Q), says Wells Fargo (WFC +2%) CFO Tim Sloan on the earnings call (his last as CFO). The refinance boom now a bust, Sloan expects a strong purchase market to drive originations growth in Q2. Also commenting on housing/mortgages, CEO John Stumpf notes the number of those buying homes for cash is up.
- As for acquisitions, management says Wells is in a position to do a big one, but is going to be picky.
- Wells sits alone among the TBTF banks in the green in morning action. XLF -0.5%, KBE -0.35%
- Earnings call presentation
- Previous earnings coverage
Fri, Apr. 11, 8:19 AM
- Revenue of $20.6B fell from $21.3B a year ago. Net interest income of $10.6B fell $188M from Q4, with net interest margin of 3.2% off 7 bps. Noninterest income of $10B up $100M from Q4. Noninterest expense of $11.9B fell $137M Q/Q, $452M from a year ago. Efficiency ratio of 57.9% up 40 bps.
- Net income in Community Banking of $3.8B rose 31% Y/Y on revenue of $12.6B which fell 2% (lower mortgage action). Noninterest expense of $6.8B fell 8%, thanks, in part, to job cuts in mortgages.
- Wholesale Banking net income of $1.7B fell 15% from a year ago on revenue of $5.6B, off 8%.
- Wealth, Brokerage, and Retirement net income of $475M rose 41% from a year ago on revenue of $3.5B, up 8%.
- Common Equity Tier 1 ratio under Basel III of 11.36%.
- CC at 10 ET
- Press release, Q1 results
- WFC +0.5% premarket
Mon, Mar. 24, 2:54 PM
- Noting Bank of America's (BAC -0.9%) capital ratio in the Fed stress test was the lowest of any bank which passed, Atlantic Equities pulls its Overweight rating on the stock, and cuts the price target to $18.50 from $20. The stress test, says analyst Richard Staite, shows BofA with a $13B buffer over the minimum requirement, meaning maybe just $5B in buybacks and $2.5B dividends this year, "although we are somewhat nervous that it or another bank could be failed on a qualitative basis."
- Still, Staite expects a boost in the quarterly payout to $0.06 per share from a penny.
- Staite and team upgrade U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC -0.4%) to Neutral from Underweight, citing the large margins by which they passed the stress test.
- In other financial sector moves, Sterne Agee boosts First Interstate BancSystem (FIBK +6%) to a Buy, citing the benefits of its impending merger with Mountain West Financial. The team also lifts EverBank Financial (EVER +2.4%) to a Buy from Neutral.
Thu, Mar. 20, 10:54 AM
- Much of the financial sector is lit up bright green, continuing to outperform following yesterday's suggestion by the FOMC and Janet Yellen that rate hikes could come sooner than expected. XLF +1.1%, KBE +1.6%, KRE +1.6%.
- At new 52-week or even multi-year highs are JPMorgan (JPM +2.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.7%), Morgan Stanley (MS +1.4%), and Bank of America (BAC +1.6%).
- Regional lenders: U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%), Huntington (HBAN +1.5%), PNC (PNC +1.3%), BB&T (BBT +1.5%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.8%), First Niagara (FNFG +2.1%).
- Leading among the life insurers are Lincoln National (LNC +1.9%), Protective Life (PL +1.6%), Manulife (MFC +1.2%), and Sun Life (SLF +1.1%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, KIE, IAT, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, PFI, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FNCL, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, PSCF, KBWI, KBWP, KRS, FINZ
Wed, Mar. 5, 3:42 PM
- Buying the rumor? On a flattish day for the major averages, the Too Big To Fail banks are ignoring a continued slowdown in markets revenue this quarter, and instead partying ahead of what may be the imminent release of the Fed's stress test results (perhaps Friday). About one week later will be CCAR results at which the Fed gives the thumbs up or thumbs down on the banks' capital return plans.
- Word is the tests are tougher this year, but bank capital levels are also improved.
- Leading today is Bank of America (BAC +3%) - now within about one percent of a 4-year high. Others: Morgan Stanley (MS +2.8%), Goldman Sachs (GS +1.8%), Ciitgroup (C +1%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.5%), and Wells Fargo (WFC +0.6%).
- Also subject to the stress tests are a number of regional lenders, not to mention credit card players - they're mixed in today's action.
- Related ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAI, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, PFI, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FNCL, FINU, KCE, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, PSCF, KRS, FINZ, KBWC
Thu, Feb. 6, 12:17 PM
- Ocwen Financial (OCN -9.5%) sinks after WSJ reports New York financial services superintendent Ben Lawsky has halted indefinitely the $2.7B deal to purchase mortgage servicing rights from Wells Fargo (WFC +0.2%) due to concerns over Ocwen's ability to handle more loans.
- The deal, announced last month, would have given OCN the right to service ~$39B worth of loans.
- Other mortgages servicers are dropping too: NSM -3.9%, WAC -3.6%.
Wed, Jan. 22, 9:19 AM
- Ocwen Financial (OCN) lands residential mortgage servicing rights from Wells Fargo (WFC) on about 184K loans with a total principal balance of $39B. The sale will be finalized as servicing is transferred, which is all expected to occur this year.
- For Wells, the sale amounts to about 2% of the bank's total residential servicing portfolio and won't be material to results.
- Ocwen +2.2% premarket
- Press release
Nov. 8, 2013, 10:41 AM
- Up sharply as interest rates fly higher (the 10-year is up 15 basis points to 2.75%) are the life insurers - all of whom have had their investment returns more than a little constrained by puny yields. IAK +2.4%
- MetLife (MET +5.9%), Prudential (PRU +4.5%), Lincoln National (LNC +6.8%), Hartford (HIG +3.1%).
- Also set to benefit from a steeper yield curve (if we're to believe their models) are the banks, and they're leading the S&P 500 higher. The TBTFs: Bank of America (BAC +3.3%), JPMorgan (JPM +3.1%), CItigroup (C +3.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.6%). The regionals (KRE +3.4%): Huntington (HBAN +2.6%), Regions (RF +4.2%), PNC (PNC +2.8%), FIfth Third (FITB +3.4%), First Niagara (FNFG +2%), Keycorp (KEY +3.5%), Zions (ZION +4.1%), Comerica (CMA +3.1%).
- The XLF +1.9%.
- FInancial sector ETFs: FAS, XLF, FAZ, UYG, KRE, KBE, VFH, IYF, KIE, SEF, IAT, IAI, IYG, IAK, FXO, PFI, KBWB, RKH, QABA, RWW, FINU, RYF, KRU, KBWR, PSCF, KBWP, KBWI, KRS, FINZ, FNCL
WFC vs. ETF Alternatives
Wells Fargo & Co is a diversified financial services company. It provides retail, corporate and commercial banking services through banking stores and offices, the internet and other distribution channels to individuals, businesses and institutions.
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