Wyeth (WYE)

All Comments on WYE

  • commenter
    kkin365
    Aug 01 09:23 AM
    My Website
    PowerShares FTSE RAFI Healthcare: Big Bets on Dow Dogs [view article]
    Thanks for giving us the 10 top holdings. Reply
  • commenter
    singh
    Jul 31 07:15 PM
    My Website
    Is Elan in Double Trouble? [view article]
    greattttttttttttttttt Reply
  • commenter
    BlueDog
    Jul 31 06:45 PM
    My Website
    Elan, Wyeth's Alzheimer Drug News Doesn't Please Investors [view article]
    Ben, how about $11.90? Reply
  • commenter
    wjl
    Jul 31 11:26 AM
    Elan, Wyeth's Alzheimer Drug News Doesn't Please Investors [view article]
    Alzheimer.s is presently an ill defined syndrome, a precarious situation when seeking effective treatment. It reminds me of the Attention Defucit Syndrome (ADS) which science was wrastling with to find an effective treatment 20 years ago. Much basic science work remains to be done before an effective search can be pursred. Reply
  • commenter
    bozak
    Jul 31 09:22 AM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Biotech bull, if all Bapineuzumab needs to do is "not kill anyone" to get approved for an unmet need, why didn't DNDN's drug get approved? They had a huge unmet need, a great safety profile and better efficacy than Bapineuzumab (primary goal met), yet they didn't get approved. Reply
  • commenter
    Ben Around
    Jul 31 09:17 AM
    Elan, Wyeth's Alzheimer Drug News Doesn't Please Investors [view article]
    The market reacted like elan is done. The MS drug continues to grow. The crohn disease treatment is not approved or disproved yet.

    I think at 19 this is a buy again.

    Reply
  • commenter
    Eben Tessari
    Jul 31 07:20 AM
    My Website
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Biotechbull,
    I don't totally disagree with your statement about evaluating programs based on NPV but you made one crucial error... why do you assume that all programs have a 67% success rate in phase III?

    Just because that is the industry average doesn't mean that it is the
    best number to use for bapineuzumab. You have to take other things into account: novel therapeutic target, missing phase II endpoints etc...

    Using 67% is mathematically lazy.

    Furthermore, your assumption that "all this drug has to do is not kill anyone" is completely off base. The FDA has been tighting like crazy, this is not the agency of four years ago when your comment would have made sense.

    Finally, given that:
    1.) the drug failed multiple endpoints (and no drug targeting any tau related protein has ever worked in the clinic)
    2.) has a pretty nasty dose-dependent AE of vasogenic edema
    3.) at best works in 30% of AD patients

    I'm all about disagreement but to hand wave using "average" statistics and make wildly off base judgment calls about the FDA approving anything that doesn't kill AD patients is not an argument that impresses me. Especially in the face of the three critical issues laid out above.

    Tesa,
    I'd totally agree that combination therapy holds the greatest promise.


    FrankieCooper
    For the record... I have never had a position in Wyeth or Elan. Though I now wish I had pulled the trigger on those shorts.

    Also, i fucked up the link in my blog... it's been fixed there and the link here:
    www.pharmababble.com/b.../



     Reply
  • commenter
    BiotechBull
    Jul 30 10:32 PM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    I am not impressed that you "called" the negatively perceived data based on top-line resutls that essetially gave you a good picture of yesterday's data 2 weeks ago.

    What is striking is that you lack a fundamental understanding of drug development--all pipeline programs are evaluated by drug companies based on their NPV. That said, bapineuzumab addresses a market with an enormously high unmet need and prevalence--and inherently has an attractive NPV--so would you "gamble" $100-$200mm on a phase 3 with the potential (>67% probability of success based on industry standards) of generating revenue >=$1B?

    All this drug has to do is show that it won't kill anybody (deaths in study were not treatment related) and demonstrate some efficacy in ApoE4 non-carriers and it will sail through FDA approval and see rapid uptake in the AD market as either a monotherapy or combination with current drugs (that produce minimal benefits for patients).

    The bottom line--is that the data didn't impress the investment community (and yourself)--because so many forecasts out there were >$10B.

    Bapineuzumab still has a much better than average chance of becoming a blockbuster drug and Wye/Eln will be laughing in a few years when this thing is launched.................     Reply
  • commenter
    frankie
    cooper
    Jul 30 10:03 PM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    i must admit that i am mighty impressed that you called the failure of the alzheimers drug trials (u must have made a BUNDLE on your short!!!), but i am confused. what EXACTLY about the trials was a failure and if it was worth the stock dropping 40%, why would ELN proceed to phase III?
    i tried reading your previous post about it, but the link is broken. i went to your blog, but i get the 404 msg....     Reply
  • commenter
    Tesa
    Jul 30 05:28 PM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Alzheimer is obviously not a single disease given that only one variation can be detected genetically while others have yet to be. Unfortunately during the drug trials of various compounds together can not be combined. Perhaps the combination of two drugs or multiple drugs will work as they did with Aids. But for that to happen, there is a need for multiple approved drugs so a cocktails can be brewed. So even if a fraction of Alzheimer population responds to a single compound, such a drug needs approval.

    I pretty much doubt that a single compound can target both amyloids and tau..
    Reply
  • commenter
    ajspark
    Jul 30 04:09 PM
    Time for Biotech? - Fast Money Recap (07/29/08) [view article]
    NNVC.OB, what is the name of the company and do u know what they r working on at present, thanks Reply
  • commenter
    ajspark
    Jul 30 04:07 PM
    Time for Biotech? - Fast Money Recap (07/29/08) [view article]
    NNVC.OB, what company is this, what r they working on that could be so big, thanks Reply
  • commenter
    ceekay
    Jul 30 02:45 PM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Thanks for your call. I wonder if you are too negative on the treatment for a complex disease. Is not identifying a sub-population that can benefit from a treatment for a horrible disease the promise from genetic medicine that we have been awaiting. Reply
  • commenter
    bozak
    Jul 30 01:31 PM
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Eben, thanks for the info about the connection (or lack of) and the links. Reply
  • commenter
    Eben Tessari
    Jul 30 01:03 PM
    My Website
    Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials [view article]
    Bozak,
    Thanks for reading. There is absolutely no connection between any adverse events seen with Tysabri vs Bapineuzumab. Two completely different mechanisms.

    Tysabri got in trouble because it does it's job too well. It suppresses the immune system by inhibiting a molecule (a4B1 integrin) used by immune cells to get into the brain. Exactly what you want if you have MS. Unfortunately, it did this job so well that an opportunistic virus, PML for short, showed up in a few patients (though none since the initial scare).

    So far, the most important adverse event for bapineuzumab has been vasogenic edema, or fluid buildup in the brain. This is really really not good, especially because the amount of fluid was dose dependently related to the amount of drug given.

    Anyway, two completely different problems. Hope that helps. I added some links if you want to know more.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
     Reply
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