SPDR Homebuilders (XHB)

All Comments on XHB

  • commenter
    The hand
    Sep 08 02:20 AM
    My Website
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    i am thinking that tom's statistics suck but they are real data points on housing. orange county is not an average american county, and i would not project the orange county situation to the rest of the usa. in fact, each area seems to have a different dynamic.

    i have a few houses i would like to unload and i would like this analysis to be correct. i just cannot shake the feeling things are going to get worse.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Sep 07 11:02 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    "Declension; I invest, you speculate, he gambles."

    Just keep in mind that the root word is 'decline', as in, 'Decline the verb to invest.'

    The happy solution to the oil problem would be an unpredictable breakthrough like fusion power.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Sep 07 08:14 PM
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    Your chart says unit sales are up 14% or so Y/Y. That's a meaningful data point. So who is buying these houses? It's not a good environment for home buyers, especially first-timers.

    While inventory may only be "slightly" higher than two years ago, it is more than double three years ago. And there are a lot of houses being held off the market "until prices improve".

    It would be nice to believe the housing market is coming back, but this article leaves me unconvinced. I have a feeling there is more to the story than meets the eye here.     Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Sep 07 01:43 PM
    Housing Nowhere Near Bottom [view article]
    But....But... You must be wrong! All the articles I read these days tell me we're reaching a bottom in home prices!

    The fact that we are encroaching on higher and higher unemployment numbers, that our output is decreasing and small news-articles like "10% increase in Mall vacancy factor" seems to escape their notice and fascinates me. How are we approaching a bottom if business is slumping and more and more people are losing their jobs?

    Cheerleading is one thing, stupidity is another.

    Thanks for a simple clear article.

    jegan ;-)     Reply
  • commenter
    Tom Lindmark
    Sep 07 01:24 PM
    My Website
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    Thanks for a different view. I agree that it's not a pretty picture but it's not as bad as most seem to want it to be. We've been beaten up pretty well in Phoenix yet the inventory and months of supply has not gone through the roof and is actually trending down slightly. It's going to be a slow climb out but it will happen. In the meantime, a lot of home buyers and investors are getting unbelievable values. There are always winners as well as losers in these cycles. Reply
  • commenter
    notsosmart
    Sep 07 11:53 AM
    My Website
    Housing Nowhere Near Bottom [view article]
    the longer the properties stay empty the more they dederiorate.this will be a tough comeback.the only bottom i know for sure is the one im sitting on.dont believe anybody. Reply
  • commenter
    notsosmart
    Sep 07 11:30 AM
    My Website
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    who knows what this guys agenda is? just think for yourself.the experts have no idea. if they did this mess would not exist. Reply
  • commenter
    Jon Smirl
    Sep 07 10:34 AM
    My Website
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    Another group that got hurt badly were people doing involuntary moves that put down a large down payment. Aren't about 7% of transactions involuntary due to relocation, divorce, etc? This group wasn't speculating and lost their down payments.

    It's insane that the government is helping the nothing down crowd who were effectively renting. I know a builder who cleared $4M by renting out his spec homes, keeping the rent and not paying the mortgage, who ultimately lost them to foreclosure. Of course he knew he was going to lose them all along and fought in court for as long as he could.     Reply
  • commenter
    kevincei
    Sep 07 09:00 AM
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    The reality is beyond these numbers. Tom Brown actually had been bullish on the financials and housign a tad too early. Some of the facts known to common man but beyond the grasp of rich traders and hedge fund managers are going to keep housing market down for years to come. Many people are now waiting to put their houses on the market and waiting for higher prices. If prices were to go up for any reason (probably wont happen for two yrs) many people will put their houses on sale.
    Today many californians are able to stay in a house for upto two yrs with the help of certain legal help without paying a cent in rent. These are owned by banks and banks are not getting a cent on their mortgage holding. The treand is increasing. Due to the nature of securitization of the mortgage paper there is a legal loop hole now becoming more and more prevalent thoroughout california and the rest of the country. This augments the losses to the banks exponentially and is well known to common people. I have about ten friends (close and persoanal) who are currently doing that. IF you doubt it just do a google search and find out.
    With government stepping in housing will be fully regulated. No more hanky panky loans. Remaining banks owning common and preferred shares of FRE and FNM are going to get a big hair cut on those ownerships.
    They are also getting a big hair cut on their revenue streams. By keeping the false accounting in books these cash strapped banks will only worsen the country's credit crisis. FDIC can help the situation by closing down all these zombified banks and letting healthy banks take over deposits.
    Just like the japanese banking index dropped 90 percent of the bubble high this unwinding will continue. July fifteen low is not the real low. Real low will be about fifty percent below that according to my opinion and the opinons of many who were able to predict the exact downturn. Tom Brown was famous for coming against Whitney Meredith and calling her a liar. I really think Whitney Meredith spoke the truth and is still far more credible than Tom Brown     Reply
  • commenter
    Can'tSpotABu
    bble?
    Sep 07 08:37 AM
    Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly [view article]
    If your market is similar to mine then I believe the statistics do not tell the complete story regarding inventory. In my area there are many REO properties that are NOT on the market. The bank is sitting on them. This is probably due to the fact that once they sell, they will be required to reflect the loss on their balance sheet. The statistics also do not reflect pent up seller demand. Many people would like to sell but are not putting their house on the market in hopes the market will improve later. Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Sep 07 01:58 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    "A body in free-fall will only reach a maximum descent based on either the 32 feet p/second rule or wind resistance."

    Didn't do too well in physics, did you?

    32 ft/sec/sec. Wind resistance,120 mph flat, 180 vertical.

    What was your point?     Reply
  • commenter
    vreporter
    Sep 06 04:57 PM
    My Website
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    To add to all the valid comments above:
    Most buyers looked at the bottom line on an after tax basis. The deduction on mortgage interest and other incidentals was the final kicker for greed.     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Sep 06 03:58 PM
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    How can no one mention our population explosion? Remember that whole supply-demand concept?

    And what about dual income families? The newest generation of homebuyers is the first in which most women work and are often professionals earning comparable salaries. Once you have enough such dual income couples, the market has to adjust.

    I hope Credit Suisse is correct, because I am renting and am waiting and watching.     Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Sep 06 02:50 PM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    A body in free-fall will only reach a maximum descent based on either the 32 feet p/second rule or wind resistance. In this case, I feel a mighty wind! jegan ;-) Reply
  • commenter
    X-15
    Sep 06 11:56 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    Rents are starting to go up---but then unemployment is also. Home ownership has been priced out by the US FED policy. The FED policy was really a grab for increase in taxes due to massive Real Estate price expansion. The policy backfired and is now responsible for a Real Estate decline that is wiping out Trillions of dollars. Taxpayers are going to pay bigtime-thank you Greenspan & Bush.. the parade of incompetence goes on. I used to think Jimmy Carter was the most incompetent (21% inflation) President of my time..Whoa Bush has just nosed him out. Reply
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