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SPDR Homebuilders ETF

5/20/2013, 1:56 AM ET

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Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
Wednesday, May 15, 10:09 AM NAHB Housing Market Index: +3 to 44, vs. consensus of 43; 41 in April. "Builders are noting an increased sense of urgency among potential buyers as a result of thinning inventories of homes for sale." Builders' main concerns have little to do with demand, and remain centered on rising costs and lot shortages. The XHB is flat. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 4:22 PM The week's ETF movers - Gainers: REMX +10.8%. URA +6.6%. TAN +6.4%. VNM +5.4%. XHB +3.4%.
ETF Losers: GAZ -4.5%. UNG -3.6%. FXA -3.0%. EWY -2.7%. EWA -2.7%. Comment! [On the Move]
Wednesday, May 8, 3:16 PM The bull story on the homebuilders (XHB) still has years to play out, says Steve Eisman, speaking at Ira Sohn under the topic, "Housing: U.S. vs. Canada." He's especially bullish on the land-rich homebuilders - LEN, PHM, SPF - as there's not enough inventory to support demand and land prices will be heading higher, but the purest land play might be Forestar Group (FOR +5.5%), worth $30/share in his opinion. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 3, 8:20 AM "Long Japan, Short Rwanda," is the title of a report from BAML suggesting the emerging market debt sector (EMB) is getting a bit frothy. Rwanda last week sold $400M of 10-year notes priced to yield 6.87%. The amount represents 5.5% of the country's GDP and the deal was 10x oversubscribed. Better bets, says the report, are Japanese equities (EWJ, DXJ) and U.S. housing (XHB). Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, April 30, 11:27 AM Home starts are up by huge amounts in a number of the country's hardest-hit (property-wise) areas, according to an advance look from number-crunchers Metrostudy. More interestingly, builders - without replacement projects to "roll into" - are trying to deliberately slow sales by raising prices. The recent drop in builder confidence, suggests Metrostudy, is more about lot costs and labor shortages than low traffic and sales. XHB -1.1%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, April 26, 4:24 PM The week's ETF movers - Gainers: TAN +14.6%. XHB +6.2%. OIL +5.5%. USO +5.5%. PHYS +4.4%.
ETF Losers: VXX -5.8%. GAZ -5.3%. UNG -4.5%. DBA -1.0%. EPI -0.4%. Comment! [On the Move]
Thursday, April 25, 3:24 PM The Homebuilder ETF (XHB +1.2%) gains after PulteGroup (PHM +5.5%) reported Q1 closings up 23%, with the average selling price up 10%. Meritage Homes (MTH +1.1%) yesterday reported a 17% increase in prices, while Ryland Group (RYL +6.7%) last night said its average price rose 8.2%. "Housing demand is greater than the supply of homes available for sale in many of the areas where we operate," says Meritage CEO Steven Hilton. Comment! [On the Move]
Wednesday, April 24, 12:19 PM Meritage Homes (MTH +5.2%) moves higher today on a solid Q1 earnings beat this morning. The number of closed homes for the quarter jumped 17% as closing surged 39% and orders jumped 35%. What's really driving the stock right now is its forecast for FY13. The homebuilder's EPS forecast, based on a 40% increase in closings revenue the rest of the year, puts the midpoint of its profit estimate more than 15% above consensus views - which were already double that from 2012. It now expects to earn between $2.20 - 2.45, versus Street estimates of $2.04. Comment! [Earnings, On the Move]
Tuesday, April 23, 11:24 AM Most notable in the New Home Sales report, says Deutsche, is the convergence of sales with starts. For the last few months starts had raced ahead of sales, but the gap closed in March. Maybe not so great for the builders (XHB +2.4%), it appears as if starts have "caught down" to sales as opposed to the other way around. Investors may still be pricing in too high a rate of sales growth. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 22, 12:11 PM Homebuilders slip today on weaker than anticipated earnings out of NVR and a miss on Existing Home Sales numbers for March: [(XHB -0.6%, [HOV]] -1.6%, MTH -0.6%, RYL -1.3%, TOL -1.4%, TPH -0.4%, DHI -0.2%, KBH -0.2%, LEN -1.2%, SPF -1%. Home improvement superstore operators also feel the pinch: (HD -0.4% and (LOW -1.2%. 2 Comments [On the Move, U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 17, 2:17 PM More from Beige Book: The homebuilders (XHB) might like to know most districts reported strong homebuyer demand with sales being restrained by low inventories. New Jersey noted a "marked reduction" in distressed properties. Home construction is picking up in most districts though tight supplies of building materials are stalling things. The NAHB reported a similar issue. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 16, 11:29 AM Homebuilder stocks aren't taking much encouragement off the bigger number in Housing Starts today, as the underlying data doesn't appear to be strong enough to offset yesterday's drubbing: BZH -0.7%, TMHC -0.2%, HOV -0.2%, DHI +0.9%, KBH +0.5%, PHM +1.6%, LEN +0.9%, TOL +1%. Building materials suppliers on the other hand don't care what kind of homes are being built, and are having a much better day on the news: LII +2.3%, WSO +2%, SHW +3.3%, LPX +3.6%). Comment!
Tuesday, April 16, 8:39 AM More on Housing Starts: Offsetting the big headline print a bit are building permits, which fell 3.9% vs. forecasts of a 0.3% gain. The gain in housing starts came from multi-family as single-family starts of 619K were off 4.8% from February. S&P 500 futures are just off session highs, +0.9%. Homebuilders ETF: XHB +1.5% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 15, 11:44 AM Homebuilders are taking a hit today on the back of weaker-than-expected housing data: XHB -2.7%, KBH -4.7%, TOL -4.5%, DHI -4.3%, PHM -4.1%, HOV -3.7%, LEN -3.2%, BZH -3.3%. Comment! [On the Move]
Monday, April 15, 10:11 AM More on NAHB: Demand isn't the issue. The slide in confidence instead reflects concerns over rising costs for building materials and "frustration over being unable to respond to the rising demand for new homes" - what your grandfather might have called "high-class worries." The XHB -2.5%, +39% Y/Y. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]

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