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XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF

6/19/2013, 6:52 PM ET

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Tuesday, June 18, 3:04 PM Rising interest rates should be good for bank (XLF) income statements, but maybe bad for bank balance sheets, opines Fitch. Higher long rates mean wider margins which is good for earnings, but securities backing bank capital levels have large unrealized gains attached - gains which could disappear and turn into losses as rates rise. Basel III rules, of course, have yet to be finalized so the ultimate impact is not yet clear. Comment! [Financials]
Monday, June 17, 8:26 AM "Higher rates without meaningful economic growth are bad for banks (XLF), says FBR's Paul Miller, making a counterpoint to last week's line of bank executives welcoming the recent increase in interest rates. KBW's Chris Mutascio is also skeptical, noting short-term rates driving loan pricing could stay flat while assets pegged to long-term yields lose value. Comment! [Financials]
Saturday, June 8, 4:38 PM The percentage of the stock market now owned by hedge funds (5%) is the highest since Q2 2008, BofA Merrill Lynch finds in its Hedge Fund Quarterly Report. Hedge funds reduced cash holdings to the Q2 2007 trough of 4.3%, and raised net equity exposure to the Q2 2007 peak of 59%. Their largest exposure is to consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) followed by IT (XLK) and financials (XLF). 23 Comments
Wednesday, June 5, 11:16 AM Stocks broadly tumble in late-morning trade, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.8%), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.8%), and the Dow (DIA, DOG) off triple-digits. The financial sector (XLF -1.3%) leads the way, headed by a 2.1% decline in Citigroup. Higher interest rates may be the worry, but the stock market's fall pretty much means they're not coming. The 10-year Treasury yield slips 3 bps to 2.10%. TLT +1%, TBT -1.8%. 14 Comments
Friday, May 31, 3:26 PM Higher interest rates - but not too high - should give a boost to regional banks and to the regional bank ETF (KRE) which has lagged the TBTF-tilted XLF and VFH this year. One analyst says about 100 basis points would be right - high enough to boost spread income without taking too big a chunk out of book value. Since when have Treasury yields been so cooperative? Comment! [Financials]
Friday, May 31, 3:21 PM Large-cap banks are poised for multiple expansion, says Sterne Agee, as discussions with managements along with data points from recent investor presentations suggest business in Q2 is doing better than expectations. The team is recommending a basket of C, JPM, MS, and GS. In a similar vein, they like a basket of "discounted regionals" - PNC, MTB, RF, USB, and STI. Comment! [Financials]
Thursday, May 30, 11:36 AM "The smartest people in banking want to be bankers again," says Cramer, pointing to the recent IPO of Customers Bancorp (CUBI), led by CEO Jay Sidhu. Sidhu previously built Sovereign Bank into one of the country's largest before flipping it to Santander. He says financials (XLF +1%) are the market's most undervalued group and set to "make fortunes" as long rates head up. Deep-value investor Richard Pzena agrees. Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, May 28, 11:06 AM Can't make this stuff up. Moody's upgrades its outlook on the U.S. banking system (XLF) to Stable from Negative, citing "continued improvement in the operating environment and reduced downside risks to the banks from a faltering economy." The outlook had been Negative since 2008. 3 Comments [Financials]
Thursday, May 23, 1:13 PM The "Too Big To Fail" subsidy is a myth, according to Goldman research which shows the banking industry (XLF) is about the only one in the U.S. where the larger firms pay higher funding costs than the smaller ones. It may be so now, but the TBTFs had a large funding advantage amid the financial crisis and have paid an average of 31 basis points less than their smaller brethren over the last decade. 1 Comment [Financials]
Tuesday, May 21, 8:49 AM Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. 4 Comments
Friday, May 17, 4:49 PM The week's ETF movers - Gainers: TAN +9.6%. XLF +3.7%. UNG +3.4%. GAZ +3.2%. EWJ +3.0%.
ETF Losers: GDXJ -14.2%. GDX -11.5%. PSLV -7.3%. SLV -6.9%. SIVR -6.7%. 1 Comment [On the Move]
Friday, May 17, 8:13 AM Thomas Lee lifts his year-end S&P 500 (SPY) forecast to 1,715 from 1,580 as the bull has already outrun his expectations. His team sees clues economic performance is picking up, including the outperformance of semiconductors (XSD) vs. transports (IYT), and the steepening of the 10 year/30 year Treasury curve. Risk/reward is particularly appealing in tech (XLK), healthcare (XLV), and financials (XLF). Comment!
Friday, May 17, 5:56 AM UBS upgrades global financials to Overweight from Underweight on a healing global economy, rebuilt capital, and the sector's shift "from being a net issuer to a net distributor of cash." Furthermore, the U.S. banking sector (XLF) is taken to Overweight as balance sheet strength and attractive valuations play well with the housing market recovery to create compelling opportunities. European banks (EUFN) are lifted to Neutral "with a preference towards Nordic and U.K. banks." Financials respond in London with LLoyds Banking Group (LYG) +2.3%, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) +3.3%, and Barclays (BCS) up 0.5%. 6 Comments [Financials, Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 15, 12:18 PM Stocks resolve a meandering early part of the session to turn decidedly green midday, the Dow +0.5%, the S&P +0.6%, the Nasdaq (weighed by a 3% decline in Apple) +0.3%. Also notably lower are H-P -2.7%, Deere -4.9%, and Energy (XLE -0.2%). Leading higher are the financials (XLF +1%), with Citigroup +2.5% and notching a new 52-week high. Comment!
Wednesday, May 15, 7:54 AM "You're getting cost cuts as a means of sustaining performance and that's not a great sign," says analyst Simon Maughan. "What HSBC (HBC) is showing you (job cuts earlier) is that there is very little growth in the banking industry (XLF) for years to come." CEO Stuart Gulliver notes HSBC has met its savings target, but hasn't met a goal to reduce costs as a percentage of revenue because revenue hasn't grown. 1 Comment [Financials]
Wednesday, May 8, 12:05 PM Stocks begin to move higher midday with tech (QQQ +0.5%) leading the way as Apple resumes its post-earnings, post-debt offering move upwards. Also notably green are the financials (XLF +0.9%), led by Bank of America and Citigroup, both up more than 2% and both at 52-week highs. The Dow (DIA +0.2%) underperforms as Disney slides 1.3% post-earnings. Comment!

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