Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
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- All Comments on XLF
- General Discussion on XLF
- Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off [view article]
- October 9, 2008: Remember the Date - This is Huge [view article]
- Friday Options Update: MS, XLF, WFC, GS, ZION, XRAY, FDRY, HA, GM [view article]
- Amity Shlaes: Paulson Plan Bring On Accounting Deja Vu [view article]
- Market Strategy: Sector vs. Style [view article]
- The Credit Bubble: Deregulation Gone Wild [view article]
- Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction [view article]
- Financial Short Interest and the SEC [view article]
- Options Trader: Thursday Outlook - How Much More Disappointment Can We Stand? [view article]
- The Dummy's Guide to the U.S. Financial Crisis [view article]
- Now is the Time for Inverse Sector ETFs [view article]
Recent XLF Articles
- Credit Default Swaps: A Blind Date Gone Wild
- The Bottomless Money Pit
- Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases
- Deposit Insurance: Variation Across Countries
- Friday Options Update: MS, XLF, WFC, GS, ZION, XRAY, FDRY, HA, GM
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off
- Financial Short Interest and the SEC
- Amity Shlaes: Paulson Plan Bring On Accounting Deja Vu
- Friday Outlook: Who Let the Dogs Out?
- The Wonderful World of Self-Insurance
- Full List of Articles »
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Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
Where to start?Fire Sec Chairman Cox-Over saw the leverage increase that the banks and brokerage houses from 12 to 1 and moved it to 40 to 1. This was supposed to be over seen by Cox-Never Happened. Dropped the Up Tick Rule on shorts. Never enforced regulations like Naked Shorting. No leadership, just a token head who has been in hiding so he can keep is job. Cox is not the man for this job.
Paulson
Was head of group when he was a goldman sacs which got the leverage ratio moved from 12 to 1 up to 40 to 1. He was on the inside and had lots of insight to the CDS problem which now loom so large. For an insider he has not been pro active and slow in general to grasp the leader ship that is need. He does not appear to have as much
savvy as one would have expected with his wall street back ground. Lehman should not have been allowed to fail, they had to much counter party risk like the CDS problems which we are now seeing.
Fed Chairman Bernanke
Lacks leadership. Smart guy, just acts like he is still teaching not leading. Remember he said back in 2007, No Sub Prime Problem, it is contained. When you watch him speak he just plain looks nervous and his voice cracking, makes you want to head for the hills. He is also a reacts to problems and does not get out in front of problems and when he has a good thought he takes way to long and the problem has already grown larger. Run out of space. Above guy 1 o 4 is spot on. Reply
Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
Wait a minute, the overall problem is "solvency" not "liquidity" but the solution proposed is more liquidity? I generally agree that solvency is the bottom line issue but all the liquidity in the world won't resolve that key issue. Sellers must find buyers. Finding buyers in a deleveraging process is easy - but only at a price. And thus we find ourselves back at the solvency issue.For a company to deleverage in the midst of a group deleverage is vastly more difficult than otherwise. If there is a group of companies trying to deleverage simultaneously and most have similar assets then prices for those assets must drop well below what any individual company wants to accept or would have to accept if it was the only company involved. Hence solvency is the issue not liquidity - or buyers.
Frankly, I believe that the price for the assets that will clear the markets is a value that leads to insolvency for many financial instituitions and not a few industrial cum financial (think GE and GMAC) companies. And the government cannot fund all the companies seeking to deleverage (and now states as well) but it doesn't want the political hit from having dozens of firms going belly up scant weeks before a major election. So we have bailouts that won't work, rescues of favored firms, bankruptcy for the few and a depressing sense of capitalism being sold out for a selectively socialized economy.
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Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
A reasonably hopeful case presented here to be sure. Some questions that popped into my head very quickly: Where has all that intellectual capital been utilized? Warfare and weapons of War comes to mind. Dubious and disastrous financial creations. Biotech products, while good, that few can afford. A truly highly creative and exploitive Lobbying creation. Marketing that has perfected the art of offering less for more money. Would that our children and grandchildren be better off than we, but I remain unconvinced by your nonetheless fine article,and one that I am better informed by reading. Thank You! ReplyWhere We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
And then?... What do we buy, What do we sell? Hello??! ReplyWhere We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
"We have the tools, all we need is leadership."And we lack leadership to an incredible degree...
Therefore what should we expect? Reply
Friday Options Update: MS, XLF, WFC, GS, ZION, XRAY, FDRY, HA, GM [view article]
How to Fix GM – Advice from someone who worked there.1) Cut down from five regional offices to two. One in Atlanta (east
of Lake)and one in LA (west of Lake). That means Chicago, New York,
and Dallas are closed. With about 250 people working in each location
(750 total) at an average of $100,000 each, that is a yearly savings
of $75 million. Operation cost (rent, equipment, etc.) at the three
locations will save another $1.8 million. Benefits for the 750
employees will save another (at $20,000 each) another $15 million.
2) Next, there is an average of three offices per state (local
offices in cities across the country), if we close them, that is
another $3 million in office space.
3) Next, the District Managers work out of their house and the Zone
Managers (or whatever term is given to them), could be let go. They
make around $150,000 a year and there are about 75 of them. Again, a
savings of $11.25 million. With benefits, a total of $12.75 million
in savings.
4) Next, cut around 150 jobs at the Detroit GM Headquarters. A
savings of around $18 million with benefits.
5) Next, cut Buick down to two cars (Enclave and Lucerne), cut
Pontiac to one (G6), cut GMC to two (Yukon and Sierra), cut Saturn to
one (Vue) – and put all cars to a new umbrella called “United
GM”. This will save GM billions
6) Next, cut advertising in November, December, January, February,
March, April, and May (with the exception of auto show advertising
for a three week period during the show and its incentives). This
will save GM around $1.4 billion.
Total Savings for GM = $123.75 million in salaries for # 1-4, $1.4
million in savings for #6, and for #5, I do not know the exact number
but it should be a savings of around $25 billion.
Reply
Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases [view article]
To date, it's been measured steps. Worsening it has been the draconian decisions of who survives and who dies. The uncertainty left in the wake has left the market on a witch hunt for the next one to implode. This is not good when it comes to restoring confidence.Two steps to solving the problem. First, capital injections and preferred stock ownership in banks. Second, guarantee inter-bank lending. Once you've done the first, you might as well do the second. Once you jump in with ownership, you better make sure you can swim. That will restore confidence. Then you have time to sort out the wreckage, sell assets, even do the blame game. Reply
re
October 9, 2008: Remember the Date - This is Huge [view article]
Doom Approaches.I Wish More People Had Debated Ron Paul Rather Than Dismissed Him.
Debate Is The Distillation OF Reality.
When you can create money out of thin air you can buy governments. Reply
McDonough
The Credit Bubble: Deregulation Gone Wild [view article]
Pigs is pigs. The trough had half of the population bellied up to it, of course, and the history from Reagan to Clinton and Bush just reinforces the holy temple of "the market" and laissez faire capitalism. Clueless Bush and his minnow Paulson seem unable to get out of their own way to take any action...like forcng the banks who are taking our dough to lend it! We are all suffering as a result. ReplyAmity Shlaes: Paulson Plan Bring On Accounting Deja Vu [view article]
1. My understanding of mark-to-market is that it requires the asset (in this case, the real estate) to be devalued- simply because comparable properties sold for less- even though the loan may not be delinquent.2. What really set off the S&L crisis, in my opinion, was the Tax Reform Act of 86, which eliminated the mortgage interest deduction for all except primary residences, causing the values of second homes and investment properties to drop drastically- to the point that owners couldn't afford to keep them (keep in mind that mortgage rates at the time were still in double digits)
Reply
ing
Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction [view article]
Gary star shines in all the dark matter of a the financial casino universe. Japan is the house, and the house never loose. ReplyFinancial Short Interest and the SEC [view article]
Even without legal shorts - there are still bearish ETF's and ultrashort ETF that utilize dark pool equitiesIt's a market equalizer gone wrong without regulation - now it's so massively complicated there won't eb enough time to get to the bottom of it - let DOW hit 7,000 and have massive panic in the streets, then we'll really be worried
mining101.blogspot.com
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Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction [view article]
Indeed, long but good. ReplyStop the Week, We Want to Get Off [view article]
GM retiree here. Also UAW member. Peppio, your education has been sadly neglected. The union ( workers & retirees has loaned GM more than 1 B. Replying
Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off [view article]
276885, I was a member, Montecarlo can be less risky,but analysis on comex and the big picture are
great, he reads Elaine religiously, and at the end
of the day is a very positive contribution to all of us. Reply