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Friday, May 17, 8:13 AM Thomas Lee lifts his year-end S&P 500 (SPY) forecast to 1,715 from 1,580 as the bull has already outrun his expectations. His team sees clues economic performance is picking up, including the outperformance of semiconductors (XSD) vs. transports (IYT), and the steepening of the 10 year/30 year Treasury curve. Risk/reward is particularly appealing in tech (XLK), healthcare (XLV), and financials (XLF). Comment!
Monday, May 6, 2:05 PM Global chip sales rose 0.9% Y/Y in March, the SIA estimates. That's down slightly from Feb.'s 1.4% Y/Y growth, as PC and (to a lesser extent) IT hardware weakness offset smartphone/tablet strength. Sales were also up 0.9% Y/Y for the whole of Q1. Comment! [Tech]
Thursday, April 25, 8:28 PM Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.PK) says its Q1 profit rose 42% to a record high on strong smartphone sales. Net profit rose to a record KRW7.15T ($6.4B), up from KRW5.05T a year earlier. Operating profit rose 54% to KRW8.8T from KRW5.7T. Sales rose 16.8% to KRW52.9T from KRW45.3T, coming in in line with the company's guidance of KRW51T to KRW53T. The results stand in stark contrast those of Apple (AAPL), which earlier this week reported its first profit drop in a decade and forecast margins to decline in the current quarter ending in June. 95 Comments [Tech, Earnings, Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 24, 12:28 PM Are wireless chip stocks decoupling from Apple? Even with Apple off slightly as bleak June quarter guidance outweighs fresh capital returns, iPhone/iPad combo chip supplier Broadcom (BRCM +6.6%) is surging thanks to a Q1 beat and strong Q2 guidance, and is helping out some peers - QCOM +1.4%, SWKS +2.6%, INVN +1.8%, SNDK +1%. During its earnings call, Broadcom, which also provides combo chips for many Samsung phones, stated mobile chip sales only fell 1.6% Q/Q in seasonally weak Q1, and forecast sequential growth for the business (Apple-dependent Cirrus Logic sure isn't doing the same). Qualcomm reports after the close. 4 Comments [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Wednesday, April 17, 12:26 PM Chip stocks have a rough day (SOXX -2.8%) following Cirrus Logic's warning, light guidance from Linear Technology (LLTC -4.6%) to go with a Q1 beat - Linear sees 1%-4% Q/Q revenue growth for calendar Q2, below a 4.7% consensus - and ho-hum Q1 results/Q2 guidance from Intel. Apple suppliers Broadcom (BRCM -4%), Avago (AVGO -5.5%), STMicroelectronics (STM -6.7%), NXP (NXPI -7%), RF Micro (RFMD -2.8%), and OmniVision (OVTI -3.3%) are among the casualties, but they're far from alone. ANAD -6.2%. STM -5.7%. FSL -5%. ADI -4.5%. TXN -4.4%. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, April 11, 5:48 PM "The move to digital audio/video and the rise of powerful smartphones/tablets is shrinking the overall [semiconductor addressable market]," writes Barclays' Blayne Curtis in a gloomy note about chip stocks influenced by ugly Q1 PC data. "The growth profile in semis is much slower than many expect (low single digits vs. the 7-8% 20yr trend line)." Curtis has cut Broadcom (BRCM) by two notches to Underweight on a belief its combo chip business could be hurt by integrated platforms (ed: Broadcom seems to have a tech edge for now), but has left his other ratings intact. Comment! [Tech]
Wednesday, April 3, 8:00 AM Something for the technicians to have a look at is this chart from ukarlewitz noting small-caps (IWM) have joined the industrials (XLI) and semiconductors (SMH) in slipping below their long-term uptrend line. Oversold in an uptrend tends to get bought, he says. It's a key time. 3 Comments
Monday, April 1, 11:42 AM Chip stocks underperform (SOXX -1.5%) after the SIA reports industry sales fell 8.9% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y in February. Bernstein points out the M/M drop is much worse than a 3.4% historical average. Microprocessor sales are estimated to have fallen 14% M/M, but the fact Intel (INTC -2%) and AMD (AMD -1.2%) no longer provide data to the SIA affects the reliability of that number. Memory sales (inc. DRAM and NAND) grew thanks to both higher bit shipments and prices. 1 Comment [Tech]
Thursday, March 28, 8:40 PM Just 3 chip manufacturers - Intel (INTC), Samsung (SSNLF.PK), and TSMC (TSM) - will account for 57% of 2013 chip industry capex, estimates IC insights. That figure, up from 2012's 54%, drives home the extent chip equipment maker fortunes now hinge on the spending plans of a handful of firms, and also the big lead the industry giants have opened up in economies of scale relative to smaller rivals. IC Insights expects total industry capex to grow 2% this year to $59.8B, after falling 11% last year. 1 Comment [Tech]
Friday, February 22, 2:03 PM Chip stocks are outperforming (SOXX +2%) in the wake of Marvell's FQ4 beat and solid guidance, and Texas Instruments' dividend/buyback hike. Also norteworthy: 1) SEMI estimates the book-to-bill for North American chip equipment makers rose to 1.14 in January; that's up from 0.92 in December, and the first reading above 1 since May '12. 2) Taiwanese analog chipmakers posted strong January sales thanks to demand from LED and smartphone clients; the results could be a positive leading indicator. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, February 1, 1:34 PM Telecom chipmakers Cavium (CAVM +7.5%) and PMC-Sierra (PMCS +13.7%) soar after delivering Q4 beats (I, II), and contribute to a decent rally in chip stocks (SOXX +1.9%). Cavium guided on its Q4 call for Q1 revenue of $68.5M-$70.5M and EPS of $0.17-$0.19 vs. a consensus of $69.1M and $0.17. PMC guided on its call for Q1 revenue of $123M-$132M, largely above a $124.7M consensus. The numbers come amidst growing optimism (I, II) about 2013 telecom capex. Peers Broadcom (BRCM +2%), Marvell (MRVL +3.1%), and LSI (LSI +4.7%) are all doing well. Comment! [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Thursday, January 17, 1:19 PM TSMC (TSM +2.5%) has hit levels last seen during the Dot.com bubble after delivering an in-line Q4 report (revenue was already known thanks to monthly reports) and guiding for a smaller Q/Q sales drop for seasonally weak Q1 than was expected. The world's top chip foundry claims 22% of Q4 wafer sales involved its cutting-edge 28nm process - TSMC struggled with 28nm yield issues earlier in 2012. Chip stocks are getting a lift from the report (SOXX +1.4%), and from ASML's guidance. Comment! [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Wednesday, January 16, 2:19 PM Chip stocks are outperforming (SOXX +1.1%) in spite of receiving soft top-line numbers from Linear Tech (LLTC +1.4%): the chipmaker missed FQ2 revenue estimates and guided for FQ3 Q/Q revenue growth of 1%-4%, below a 5% consensus. S&P 500 chip companies are already expected to post a 28.7% Y/Y earnings drop for calendar Q4 (per Thomson Reuters), thus expectations are quite low. Intel (INTC +0.9%) reports tomorrow: the consensus revenue forecast of $13.51B is below the midpoint of the chip giant's $13.1B-$14.1B guidance range. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, January 11, 2:17 PM A day after TSMC (TSM -0.1%) reported healthy December sales, occasionally-accurate Digitimes writes "industry watchers" expect TSMC to report a 7%-11% Q/Q sales drop for seasonally weak Q1, a range largely below estimates. Top clients such as QCOM, BRCM, TXN, and NXPI have reportedly "started to slow down orders" due to inventory adjustments," and wafer starts for MediaTek and Spreadtrum (SPRD) are seen falling 10%-20%. It's worth noting the article follows multiple reports of iPhone chip order cuts - several TSMC clients are iPhone suppliers. Comment! [Tech]
Friday, January 4, 4:03 PM In what could be a sign chip stocks have more than priced in their fill of bad news, Freescale (FSL +0.5%), a pretty diversified chipmaker, has closed higher in spite of being hit with a downgrade to Neutral from JPMorgan. The firm notes Freescale has rallied 55% from its Nov. bottom (shares are still well below their 52-week high), and thinks "persistent weakness" in automotive, networking, and industrial chip sales will lead to just 3% revenue growth in 2013. CEO Gregg Lowe provided a cautious outlook on chip demand last month. Comment! [Tech, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, January 2, 11:00 AM Chip stocks are outperforming (SOXX +3.4%) after the SIA reports global chip sales rose 8.5% Y/Y in November, albeit while falling 1.3% M/M. Though year-ago figures were depressed by an inventory correction and some were expecting a M/M increase, the sector has already priced in quite a bit of bad news. Equipment maker Lam Research (LRCX +5.5%) is one of the standouts after D.A. Davidson starts coverage with a Buy and $56 PT. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]

XSD SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF

XSD

SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF