From other sites
at CNBC.com (Fri, 6:00PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 10:14AM)
at Zacks.com (Fri, 9:30AM)
at Nasdaq.com (Fri, 9:00AM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 9:00AM)
at Benzinga.com (Wed, 12:45PM)
at Zacks.com (Wed, 9:10AM)
at CNBC.com (Tue, 4:31PM)
at Benzinga.com (Tue, 3:01PM)
at Benzinga.com (Tue, 2:57PM)
Yahoo: Three Major Growth Catalysts Going Into FY 2015
- Yahoo's equity interest in Alibaba will increase in value in FY 2015, and by estimates will be worth $56 billion.
- The core search business has better growth prospects, as a result of closing a deal with Firefox.
- Search revenue may increase to $4.32 billion, assuming users keep Yahoo as the default search engine.
- Native ads should drive financial performance, as they tend to perform better on a cost-per-impression basis.
- Yahoo Search may become Safari's default search engine.
- This puts Google in a tough position as it continues to battle anti-trust issues in Europe.
- Microsoft will also benefit as it shares 12% of Yahoo's search revenue.
- Following the Firefox deal, and assuming Yahoo can also get Safari, Yahoo may become the best play on Search going forward.
- Yahoo's assets and cash are a good hedge against downside risk.
- Yahoo's position in Alibaba has given it a lot of breathing room. It should carefully let its strategy unfold in 2015.
- Yahoo may still appreciate further if it continues to land big deals such as the new partnership with Mozilla Firefox.
Can Mayer Successfully Transition Yahoo: An Analysis Of Her Mobile-Centric Strategy And An Algorithmic Forecast
- Yahoo stock has more than tripled due to the company’s investment in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.
- Yahoo has acquired new startups to enter new growth markets in online advertising.
- Yahoo is trying to find a tax-free way to return remaining investment in Alibaba to shareholders.
- I Know First algorithm correctly predicted stock price increase in June 30th article and forecasts a future bullish signal for Yahoo stock.
- Firefox will make Yahoo its default search engine.
- Yahoo's search business may undergo a significant period of growth, assuming factors such as pricing and the total number of ads sold increase significantly.
- When conservatively estimating the impact of Firefox, paired with growth in pricing, the search business may grow from $1.8 billion to more than $4 billion in revenue over the next three years.
Yahoo-Mozilla Deal Likely Worth Billions For Yahoo
- Yahoo's search engine will soon be the default search for Firefox, which currently controls 14-19% of the browser market share.
- I estimate that this deal will add $2-2.7 billion of revenue to Yahoo per year, and $2.3-3.1 billion if Yahoo terminates its search engine deal with Microsoft next year.
- Yahoo may be able to capitalize further on this tremendous opportunity by increasing Firefox usage through promotion on its web page.
- YHOO is suitable for Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
- According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.
- The market is implying an 11.28% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, within a margin of safety relative to the rate the company has seen in recent years.
Yahoo's Acquisition Of BrightRoll Highly Accretive Over The Next 5 Years
- Yahoo acquired BrightRoll, a programmatic ad buying platform, which is distinct from a real-time bidding exchange.
- Programmatic ad buying is expected to grow at a fairly high rate as advertisers re-appropriate marketing budgets for targeted ad-buying across publishers.
- The $640 million acquisition offers meaningful upside prospects, as video advertising is expected to take off along with programmatic ad-buying.
Update: Yahoo's Acquisition Of BrightRoll Is A Significant Step In The Right Direction
- Yahoo has been looking to double down on video advertising, and has confirmed it is buying BrightRoll.
- This acquisition supports my original thesis that Yahoo would need to acquire video ad technology to succeed.
- This acquisition means that Yahoo will likely not acquire AOL.
Yahoo Eyes Video Ad Dollars With BrightRoll Acquisition
- This acquisition can catapult Yahoo to a No. 1 position in terms of the number of ads served in the US.
- BrightRoll leads the video ad tech industry, and continues to dominate over some of the top ad tech platforms such as LiveRail and Adapt.tv.
- Video online ad spending is expected to exceed $12.71 billion by 2018.
- Yahoo has moved considerably higher as a result of Alibaba.
- However, core business developments and the prospects of future capital returns make the investment opportunity extremely promising.
- On purely a tangible basis, Yahoo is worth $42.28 billion.
- However, after running an updated sum-of-the-parts analysis, the business should be worth $56 billion (conservatively).
- Various newer divisions of Yahoo are becoming profitable, presenting opportunities for future growth.
- The Display segment continues to struggle.
- Many of the new revenue drivers will demand attention in upcoming quarters.
- Recent events surrounding Yahoo have led it to be a very compelling investment for a variety of reasons.
- Sum of the parts analysis shows YHOO could be undervalued by as much as 40% with plenty of downside protection.
- Starboard reveals an interesting strategy that seems to coincide with Mayer's view from Q3 Earnings.
- Yahoo reported a phenomenal quarter and disclosed qualitative information that helps to quantify Yahoo's recovering search, display and native ad business.
- Earnings growth will come from mobile (native ads), share buybacks and strategic acquisitions.
- I believe that a combination of these three factors along with further upside in its Alibaba stake will drive the valuation premium significantly higher by the end of the year.
- Yahoo reported their quarterly earnings which was embraced by Wall Street.
- The shares have failed to trade above the BABA IPO high of $44 per share.
- I suspect the company's efforts to negate the tax effect will be futile.
Yahoo Earnings: Mobile, Windfall Profits From Alibaba Sale Boost Results
- The sale of Yahoo's 140 million shares in Alibaba boosted its cash position by $7 billion to $12 billion.
- While Yahoo's core search ad revenues (excluding TAC) improved by 6% year-over-year, its display ad revenues declined by 6%.
- The primary reason for growth in search ads revenue was the growth in the price per click.
Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad
- Yahoo reported Q314 numbers that generally beat estimates based on non-repeating items.
- Operations continue to show negative trends.
- A big jump in earnings from equity interests provided all of the upside that will drop going forward with the reduced investment in Alibaba.
Fri, Sep. 5, 11:57 AM
- CNBC reports Alibaba (Pending:BABA) will price its IPO on Thursday, Sep. 18, and begin trading the next day. That fits with recent reports from the WSJ and NYT.
- The NYT reports today Alibaba's roadshow will start in NYC on Monday. No word yet on the price/valuation range sought by the Chinese e-commerce giant - plenty of analysts have assigned valuations above $150B.
- Yahoo (YHOO +1%) has ticked higher following the report.
- Related tickers: OTCPK:SFTBF, OTCPK:SFTBY
Wed, Aug. 27, 1:12 PM
- With its Q2 results disclosed, Alibaba (Pending:BABA) is expected to provide an IPO price range "as soon as Tuesday," the NYT reports.
- After setting a price range, Alibaba will reportedly kick off a 2-week roadshow (covering both Asia and the U.S.) ahead of an IPO the company hopes will take place during the week of Sep. 15.
- Sources caution the Chinese e-commerce giant's plans could still change. The NYT previously reported Alibaba was planning an IPO "sometime after Labor Day." At one point, the company was rumored to be eying an early-August IPO.
- Yahoo (YHOO +0.7%) continues to trade modestly higher.
Wed, Aug. 27, 9:52 AM
- In a revised F-1, Alibaba (Pending:BABA) discloses it had calendar Q2 revenue of $2.54B (+46% Y/Y), and net income of $1.99B (boosted by $1.1B in interest/investment income). Op. income was $1.1B (+27% Y/Y). Revenue growth accelerated from Q1's 39% clip, a figure that had disappointed some investors.
- Q2 free cash flow was $1.71B. Sales/marketing spend +70% Y/Y to $195M; R&D +68% to $315M.
- GMV was RMB501B ($81.6B), +17% Q/Q and +45% Y/Y (46% growth was seen in Q1). Mobile accounted for 32.8% of GMV (up from Q1's 27.4%), and mobile revenue more than doubled Q/Q to $400M.
- Annual orders +14% Q/Q to 14.5B; annual active buyers +9% to 279M; annual active sellers +11% to 8.5M; mobile monthly active users (MAUs) +15% to 188M.
- Alibaba's Taobao marketplace (focused on smaller merchants) had a Q2 GMV of RMB342B, +33% Y/Y. The Tmall marketplace (focused on larger merchants) had a GMV of RMB159B, +81%.
- Yahoo (YHOO +0.3%) is up slightly following Alibaba's release, which might be the company's last earnings update before its IPO.
- Related tickers: OTCPK:SFTBF, OTCPK:SFTBY
Tue, Aug. 12, 5:15 PM
- In a new F-1, Alibaba (Pending:BABA) discloses it has restructured its agreement with Chinese online payments giant Alipay and its parent, Small and Micro Financial Services.
- Most notably, Alibaba will receive a 37.5% stake in Small and Micro/Alipay in the event of an IPO featuring a $25B+ valuation and $2B+ in gross proceeds. The deal is contingent on Alibaba's stake in Small and Micro not having reached 33% at IPO time. Previously, Alibaba's Alipay IPO payout was capped at $6B.
- In the meantime, Alibaba will receive 37.5% of Small and Micro's pre-tax income in exchange for IP licensing and "software technology services." Its profit payout will be reduced in proportion to the equity stake it obtains in Small and Micro.
- Alibaba is also selling assets related to its loan business for small/mid-sized companies (SMEs) to to Small and Micro for $518M, and entering into "software system use and service agreements" related to the SME loan business in exchange for an annual fee. From 2015-2017, the fee will be 2.5% of the average daily book balance for micro loans.
- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) is up 0.8% AH.
- Related tickers: OTCPK:SFTBF, OTCPK:SFTBY
Sat, Aug. 9, 8:38 PM
- "Many [online] advertisers now care more about who sees their ads than where they appear," writes the Columbia Journalism Review's Steven Waldman in a column about the threat posed to Web publishers by programmatic (automated) ad buying.
- Whereas a drug developer might have previously bought ads on popular health sites to reach potential customers, it can now use programmatic campaigns to reach them across the Web, aided by cookies that track when a user has shown an interest in particular drugs (or something related to them).
- The upshot? Advertisers are less likely to pay a big premium for inventory on high-profile sites. Waldman: "A marketer can now reach 'New York Times readers' without ever actually advertising in The New York Times, and for less money."
- Publishers are responding in part by embracing native ad formats such as sponsored content. But as Waldman observes, a site's image can get hurt when users conflate sponsored and organic material. "Publishers have ended up trading the one thing they had left—their credibility with readers—for a few scraps of CPM."
- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), increasingly using native ads to complement traditional display ads, saw a 24% Y/Y drop in display ad prices in Q2 to go with a 24% increase in ads sold. AOL, both a publisher and a programmatic ad tech provider, fared a little better in Q2.
- eMarketer expects U.S. real-time bidding ad spend (a key part of the programmatic market) to rise to $9B in 2017 from $3.4B in 2013. At the same time, it observes many advertisers are treading cautiously for now.
- Other Web publishers: IACI, DMD, TTGT, GKNT, WBMD
- Ad tech firms with programmatic exposure: CRTO, FUEL, RUBI, MRIN, TRMR, YUME, TUBE
Wed, Jul. 23, 9:40 PM
- After talking with an unnamed "large Yahoo shareholder that is preparing a presentation" featuring a similar thesis, fund manager Eric Jackson thinks there's a good chance Alibaba (Pending:BABA) or SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) will acquire Yahoo (YHOO +3.3%).
- His reasoning: Whereas the value of Yahoo's stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan (OTCPK:YAHOF) are currently discounted for future tax payments, the pre-tax valuations are what matter to Alibaba and SoftBank. The former would be buying back a 22.5% pre-IPO stake in itself, and the latter would be adding to its respective 34.3% and 43% stakes in Alibaba and YJ.
- Jackson estimates Yahoo's assets are worth $56/share to either acquirer - he values the post-IPO Alibaba stake at $33, the YJ stake at $9, and Yahoo's core business at $5, and adds $9 for cash (inc. IPO share sales).
- He speculates Alibaba (were it the buyer) could trade the YJ stake to SoftBank for part of its Alibaba stake (adding to the scope of its buyback), and notes new SoftBank Internet/media chief Nikesh Arora reportedly wanted to buy Yahoo while at Google.
- One caveat: Acquiring Yahoo would give SoftBank a 56.8% stake in Alibaba before factoring IPO dilution. The Chinese government likely wouldn't be pleased with that. Jackson suggests SoftBank could trade part of its Alibaba stake post-acquisition for "something of similar value," but doesn't say what.
- Previous: Alibaba reportedly planning September IPO
Mon, Jul. 21, 5:01 PM
- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) has confirmed its purchase of mobile analytics platform/ad network owner Flurry, but hasn't disclosed a price. Flurry has also issued a statement.
- Yahoo: "Our combined scale will accelerate revenue growth for thousands of developers and publishers across the mobile ecosystem. Our combined offerings will enable more effective mobile advertising solutions for brands seeking to reach their audiences and gain unique insights across desktop and mobile."
- The company also promises Flurry's offerings (i.e. its data and analytics tools) will help "make Yahoo mobile experiences better through products that are more personalized and more inspiring."
- TechCrunch (citing sources) states the deal's price "could be anywhere between $300 million and $1 billion." One source suggests Flurry was looking for $700M-$800M. Re/code has only reported the price is in the "hundreds of millions."
- 170K developers use Flurry Analytics, but for now, only 8K publishers "monetize" using Flurry's ad solutions, which face competition from Google, Twitter (MoPub), Millennial Media , and many others. The addition of Yahoo's own apps to Flurry's ad network would significantly increase its scale.
- Millennial rallied (MM +2.7%) after reports of the deal broke, as investors hope it, too, will become an M&A target.
- Earlier: Yahoo reportedly buying Flurry
- Update: A source tells the WSJ Yahoo is paying more than $200M.
Mon, Jul. 21, 3:19 PM
- Re/code reports Yahoo (YHOO -0.3%) is acquiring Flurry, a top provider of analytics and ad services for mobile advertisers and publishers. The purchase price is said to be in the "hundreds of millions."
- Flurry claims access to data from 540K apps and 5.5B daily app sessions. Publishers use its analytics services to track user activity and app performance, and to create audience profiles that can improve user acquisition.
- In addition, Flurry has launched a mobile ad network that (with the help of its user data and audience profiles) allows brands/agencies to buy ad inventory provided by developer partners.
- The company was on a $100M net revenue run-rate as of last September. CEO Simon Khalaf suggested an IPO was only a matter of time.
- Acquiring Flurry would provide Yahoo with mountains of mobile app/user data, and bolster its efforts to offset weak PC display ad sales with mobile growth. Marissa Mayer stated last week Yahoo's mobile search and display ad sales both more than doubled in Q2, but didn't give specific numbers.
- Last year, Facebook bought Onavo, another prominent mobile analytics startup.
- Update: Yahoo has confirmed the acquisition, but hasn't given a price.
Thu, Jul. 17, 11:40 AM
- The NYT reports Alibaba (Pending:BABA) now plans to price its IPO "sometime after Labor Day."
- Though past reports stated Alibaba is aiming for an early-August offering, the company needs more time to take care of several issues, including wrapping up an SEC review, deciding on its IPO valuation range, and finalizing roadshow presentation plans.
- Yahoo (YHOO -1.4%) is adding to yesterday's post-earnings losses amid a broader tech selloff. The company is 2 days removed from disclosing it has lowered the number of Alibaba shares it's required to sell at IPO time by 33%, and plans to return at least half the proceeds to shareholders.
- Per Alibaba's latest F-1, Yahoo owns 22.5% of the Chinese e-commerce giant, and SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) 34.3%.
Wed, Jul. 16, 6:40 PM
- "It's remarkable how bad" Yahoo's (YHOO -5.1%) Q2 ad sales figures were, says Pivotal Research's Brian Wieser. "Such are the problems when there is no head of ad sales." Marissa Mayer effectively took over the job after COO Henrique de Castro was fired (following a tumultuous stint) in January.
- The 24% Y/Y drop in Yahoo's display ad prices (much worse than Q1's 5%) is getting a lot of attention. Soft demand for banner ads relative to other formats (search, video, native ads) is seen as a culprit, as are delays in rolling out Yahoo's Ad Manager Plus ad-buying platform.
- Marissa Mayer mentioned on the CC (transcript) Yahoo "took extra time to ensure [Ad Manager Plus] was delivering for our advertisers," during which time activity on the older Genome platform slowed. She added Yahoo saw a "lower-than-expected contribution from premium advertising, resulting in an unfavorable mix shift."
- On the bright side, Mayer stated both mobile search and display ad sales more than doubled Y/Y. Yahoo's new Gemini platform (integrated mobile search and native ad purchases) now accounts for half of its U.S. mobile display revenue.
- Sell-side bulls argue Yahoo's business challenges are priced in, and that investors should keep their focus on Alibaba. MKM estimates Yahoo's Alibaba stake is worth $29/share, and expects Alibaba's IPO roadshow to boost investor enthusiasm.
- CFO Ken Goldman says Yahoo expects its Alibaba IPO share sale (now just 140M shares) to be "fully taxed," but is still exploring "tax-efficient structures" for the rest of its stake.
Tue, Jul. 15, 6:32 PM
- After growing 2% Y/Y in Q1 (its first quarter of positive growth in some time), Yahoo's display ad revenue (ex-TAC) fell 7% in Q2 to $394M. A 24% drop in ad prices (hurt by mobile?) more than offset a 24% increase in ads sold.
- The display weakness comes as eMarketer forecasts Yahoo's share of global digital ad spend will fall to 2.52% in 2014 from 2.86% in 2013 and 3.36% in 2012.
- Search revenue (ex-TAC) was healthier: It rose 6% to $428M after growing 9% in Q1. Search click revenue (excludes Microsoft payments) rose 19%, with ad clicks growing 3% and ad prices 15%.
- Americas revenue (75% of total) -2%, EMEA +2%, Asia-Pac -8%. Opex +7% Y/Y to $1.002B, thanks in large part to rising R&D spend.
- Ahead of the Alibaba windfall, Yahoo ended Q2 with $4.3B in cash/marketable securities.
- YHOO now -2.1% AH. Prior coverage.
Tue, Jul. 15, 4:33 PM
- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) has further amended its IPO share sale agreement with Alibaba (Pending:BABA): The company is now only required to sell 140M Alibaba shares at IPO time, down from a prior 208M.
- Yahoo also promises to return "at least half of the after-tax [Alibaba] IPO proceeds to shareholders." That could translate into several billion worth of buybacks and/or a big special dividend.
- The company guides in its Q2 earnings slides (.pdf) for Q3 revenue (ex-TAC) of $1.02B-$1.06B, below a $1.1B consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall to $220M-$260M from $331M a year earlier, and op. income is expected to total $70M-$110M.
- Alibaba had Q1 revenue of $1.97B (+42% Y/Y), gross profit of $1.4B (+37%), and net income of $906M (+36%). The company already provided many Q1 details in a June F-1 filing. Yahoo Japan (OTCMKTS:YAHOF) had Q1 revenue of $1.06B (-6%), and net income of $311M (-10%).
- $719M was spent on buybacks in Q2, up from $450M in Q1.
- YHOO +1% AH. Q1 results, PR.
Tue, Jul. 15, 4:06 PM
Mon, Jul. 14, 5:35 PM
Mon, Jul. 14, 4:25 PM
- Tim Armstrong would "dearly love" to merge AOL (AOL +2.1%) with Yahoo (YHOO +0.8%), and has (in "sideways ways") brought it up to Marissa Mayer and others, sources tell Kara Swisher.
- However, while many at both companies see value in a deal, given content, video, and ad synergies, Mayer reportedly considers it "small, unexciting, uninspiring and backward-looking."
- Mayer would, however, like to buy the Huffington Post. But Armstrong is said to be uninterested in selling the site by itself.
- The report follows a Sun Valley talk between Mayer and Armstrong that fueled speculation the CEOs were talking about a deal.
- Yahoo's Q2 report arrives tomorrow. The Street is hoping some clarity will be given on Yahoo's plans for its Alibaba IPO windfall.
Fri, Jul. 11, 4:29 PM
- "Yahoo (YHOO) is focused on growing video users and monthly streams ... This deal demonstrates our dedication to accelerating our video strategy and boosting our underlying technology infrastructure in the space," says Yahoo exec P.P.S. Narayan, explaining the RayV purchase.
- No acquisition price is given. Most of RayV's team will join Yahoo's Tel Aviv R&D center.
- The WSJ reported in May Yahoo is looking to buy RayV, which offers a cloud-based platform for encoding, streaming, and monetizing video. The startup asserts its solution is differentiated by congestion-management tech that can adapt to network conditions.
- The purchase follows reports plans to launch a YouTube rival (focused on premium content providers) as part of its efforts to grow video ad inventory, and has bid for leading YouTube network Fullscreen.
YHOO vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR