Mobile now makes up 15% of Web traffic, up from 10% a year ago, notes Mary Meeker in her latest Internet Trends Report. Also mentioned: China (BIDU, SINA, SOHU, YOKU) has 564M Web users (42% penetration), with 75% accessing the Web from their phones (71% use PCs); India's Web penetration is only at 11% (137M users); mobile now makes up 12% of U.S. media viewing time (it's 22% in China) and 3% of ad spend, up from 10% and 1% before; YouTube's (GOOG) per-minute video uploads are up 5x since '09; 60% of Facebook (FB) users log in daily, and the site receives 350M daily photo uploads; global smartphone penetration is still only at 21%. (Meeker in 2012)
After barely moving yesterday in response to nearly in-line Q1 results and strong Q2 revenue guidance, Youku (YOKU -9.6%) is falling hard today. The decline comes even though Youku has received two upgrades since the report (from HSBC and Maxim), as well as a bullish coverage launch from BofA. Concerns about mobile monetization could be a factor. On its earnings call, Youku stated mobile daily video views rose 50%+ Q/Q and are now above 170M, that mobile monthly users have topped 100M (PC users are around 400M), and that mobile now makes up ~30% of traffic. However, the company added "mobile monetization this year is relatively modest."
Youku Tudou (YOKU) Q1 EPS of -$0.23 in-line. Revenue of $83.1M (+21% Y/Y) beats by $800K. Expects Q2 revenue of RMB720M-RMB770M ($117M-$125M), above a consensus of $108.3M. Shares -1.5% AH. CC at 8PM ET (webcast). (PR)
A recent Chinese government proposal to allow local investors to buy stocks traded elsewhere could give a lift to "companies familiar to them," argues Stifel. The firm mentions Baidu (BIDU +3.3%), Qihoo (QIHU +2.1%), Youku (YOKU +1.2%), and Tencent (TCEHY.PK - trades in HK) as beneficiaries. All 3 U.S.-traded names are rallying, as are YY (YY +8.9%), Sohu (SOHU +5.1%), Perfect World (PWRD +1.6%), and Changyou (CYOU +3.1%). Youku fell yesterday after Baidu confirmed it's buying video site PPS, and will integrate it with its iQiyi site. Baidu claims PPS/iQiyi will create China's largest Web video platform in terms of mobile users and viewing time.
Chinese Internet stocks rally following news Alibaba is buying an 18% stake in Sina as it tries to head off competition from Tencent. Youku (YOKU +7%) is the biggest winner, but Baidu (BIDU +2.2%), NetQin (NQ +3.8%), NetEase (NTES +2%), and YY (YY +3.7% - a rival to Tencent's QQ platform) are also having good days. Youku filed its 2012 20-F on Friday.
Sohu (SOHU) and Samsung have reached a deal to have Sohu Video's apps installed on all Samsung phones sold in China over the next 3 years, Shanghai Daily reports. As the paper notes, the deal could give Sohu a boost in its efforts to compete against market leader Youku Tudou (YOKU), which has seen its mobile viewing surge. Strategy Analytics estimates Samsung shipped over 30M smartphones in China last year.
Solid earnings from Tencent (TCEHY.PK) and a rally in Shanghai help Chinese Internet stocks trade higher. YOKU +3.8%. SINA +2.8%. QIHU +2.5%. SOHU +1.8%. YY +1.8%. NTES +1.5%. PWRD +1.7%. Tencent, which rose 1.5% in Hong Kong, reported a 53% Y/Y increase in Q4 sales to $1.96B, and a 37% increase in net income to $557M. Ad sales were better than expected, and value-added service sales (includes online games) rose 32%. Registered accounts for Tencent's WeChat mobile IM platform, which competes with Sina's Weibo, have topped 300M.
Youku (YOKU +1.4%) strikes an exclusive 2-year deal with major Hong Kong broadcaster TVB. 2500 hours of "hot dramas and old classics" will be provided by TVB each year for viewing on Youku's sites and mobile apps. Youku notes it already had a content deal with TVB, and recently struck a deal with AMC Networks (AMCX) to be "the exclusive source for AMC content in China."
Initially crushed due to the light guidance provided with its solid Q4 results, Youku (YOKU -4.5%) is now off more modestly. On the earnings call, management stated ad spending growth from international consumer goods clients could weaken due to macro issues. Youku hopes 2013 growth will be stoked by the full integration of Tudou's ad ops; new ad formats such as product placements and sponsorships; and the arrival of mobile ads. Youku's mobile traffic rose 800% in 2012, with daily video views topping 100M by year's end.
Tech guidance roundup: 1) OmniVision (OVTI - earnings) expects FQ4 revenue of $300M-$330M and EPS of $0.14-$0.29, below a consensus of $371.4M and $0.32. 2) Youku (YOKU - earnings) expects Q1 revenue of RMB480M-RMB520M ($77.2M-$83.6M), below a consensus of RMB551.3M ($88.6M). 3) Splunk (SPLK - earnings) expects FQ1 revenue of $52M-$54M, largely above a $52M consensus. FY14 (ends Jan. '14) guidance is for revenue of $260M-$270M vs. a $263.2M consensus. OVTI -9.2% AH. YOKU -16.1%. SPLK +4.8%.
Youku Tudou Inc is an Internet television company in china. Its internet television platform enables consumers to search, view and share high-quality video content quickly and easily across multiple devices.