F

Guidance

Analysts are looking for EPS of 51c on revenue of $624.02M. The consensus range is 48c to 52c for EPS, and $618.8M to $627.64M for revenue, according to First Call.

While it was only this Summer that commodities were closing at 52-week highs nearly every day, this week the CRB commodity index closed at a 52-week low only 96 calendar days after closing at its last 52-week high!  This is the second shortest time span between a close at a 52-week high and a close at a 52-week low that the index has had (since 1956).  In addition, the current collapse in prices is the only time the index has declined by more than 30% over a 100 calendar day period.

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In a recent 13G filing made with the SEC, Bruce Kovner's Caxton Associates revealed their 5.2% ownership stake in Ferro (FOE). As of the date of the filing, they owned 2,276,526 shares. Previously, in their most recent 13F filing, they only owned 245,944 shares. So, as you can see, Caxton has significantly upped their stake in the company. You can view Caxton's most recent portfolio holdings here.

Caxton Associates is run by Bruce Kovner. Kovner's bio is as follows:

The problem with some analysts these days is that they have no clue of financials, accounting, financing decisions, investment decisions, dividend policies, buybacks.....they are simply analysts who call out a target based on what other analysts have concluded.

Being an accountant by profession, a banker by day and university finance professor by night, I can safely say that Andrew Snyder's liquidity analysis is completely out of line, although his ratios are correct.

ICE sugar futures dropped to their lowest trading levels since early June, with March09 dropping to the mid 11 cent range on Wednesday, before showing some strength and closing just above 12 cents. 

Wednesday’s dip should have been bought, and any future moves that put the nearby around 11.5 cents should be viewed as an entry point for March.  While our long term fair value range for Mar09 is 12.7 to 13 cents, and current levels are overvalued, other factors may put some more downside pressure on sugar in the short term, so there may be opportunities in the coming sessions to take advantage of lower levels. 

On Friday, I checked the portfolio realizing that some of my stocks had likely hit sale points. Indeed, I was starting to feel a bit 'banged-up' by this vicious correction.

First of all my LDK Solar (LDK) shares were acting less than sunny, and in fact were trading below my 8% loss limit. I sold my 280 shares of LDK at $20.43, having just purchased these shares on Thursday at $23.82 - OUCH - for a loss of $3.39 or 14.2% in about 24 hours!

By Tom Vulcan

Strangelove: Well let's see now ah, searches within his lapel cobalt thorium G. notices circular slide rule in his gloved hand aa... nn... Radioactive halflife of uh,.. hmm.. I would think that uh... possibly uh... one hundred years. On finishing his calculations, he pulls the slide rule roughly from his gloved hand, and returns it to within his jacket.

By Julian Murdoch

With everything that's been going on in the market lately, what's a little more bad news?

There are some great companies out there selling for unbelievably low prices. But before you buy, you need to do your homework. You will be surprised with what you find, especially in overly bullish stocks like Potash Corp. (POT).

The downturn in the stock market is impacting nearly everybody, but some companies are really taking it on the chin. Many businesses are getting hammered by valuation cuts of 60% or more.

Q1 2009 Earnings Call

OM Group (OMG) is the largest cobalt refiner in the world. It has a low price to book ratio (the value of which we've discussed here) and a low P/E, warranting a closer look.

The company has been very active in acquiring and divesting businesses, as it re-organizes itself to better take advantage of its core strengths. While this may indeed be in the best interest of the company, it adds some uncertainty from the point of view of investors: we can't rely on past operational data in trying to value this company. Therefore, while it may be a great investment, we prefer companies where we can be fairly confident with respect to its profits going forward.

General Electric

Guidance

Analysts are looking for EPS of 45c on revenue of $47.71B. There is a tight consensus range of 44c to 45c for EPS, and $45.5B to $48.9B for revenue, according to First Call. The company gave guidance when it reported its Q2 results in July expecting Q3 EPS 50c to 54c vs. consensus of 54c, and FY08 EPS $2.20 to $2.30 vs. consensus of $2.22. However, on September 25, due to the "unprecedented weakness" in the financial service markets the company lowered is Q3 and FY08 EPS guidance. General Electric now expects Q3 EPS of 43c to 48c, and FY08 EPS of $1.95 to $2.10.

Darling International (DAR) is the only nationwide supplier of rendering and grease trap services to restaurants, butchers, grocery stores, and other food service establishments in the United States. Basically, Darling collects waste materials and processes them into products that can be used as inputs to other industries. Finished products include: Meat and bone meal that is used to make pet and animal feed; Tallow and other oils used in the production of feed, soaps, chemicals, and bio-fuels; and hides used to make leather goods.

Darling has two main lines of business. Rendering, which accounted for 72% of 2007 sales, is the business of converting waste products into usable raw materials. Restaurant Services (28%) provides grease trap services (pickup and cleaning), as well as specialized equipment for making the job of cleaning frying equipment much easier. The company runs 39 facilities including 25 rendering plants, 6 grease plants, and a number of smaller specialized sites. Darling consolidated the rendering business in a big way by purchasing National By Products (NBP) in 2007, and has driven impressive operating synergies from the acquisition.

Linked here is a PDF copy of my detailed analysis of United Technologies Corp (UTX) (alt.1, alt.2). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: United Technologies Corp. is an aerospace-industrial conglomerate with a portfolio including Pratt & Whitney jet engines, Sikorsky helicopters, Otis elevators and Carrier air conditioners, among other products.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

F4Q08 Earnings Call

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

As expected, the analyst response to Alcoa Inc.'s (AA) third-quarter earnings miss is largely negative. But they continue to see some positive developments in the future.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Fraser Phillips cut his price target on Alcoa shares 35% to C$24.00 based on a lower realized price for aluminum in the current quarter (the company warned about price weakness in its Q3 report). He expects aluminum shares to remain depressed through this year, but thinks they could spike again next year.

Dave Nadig, assistant editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Nadig): 
Kevin Kerr is one of the most recognized traders in US commodities. He is the Editor of the Global Commodities Alert, available at www.kerralert.com, and he is a frequent television commentator on commodities trading. Kevin’s going to join us each week to take a quick survey of the commodity investing landscape from a trader’s perspective.
Welcome, Kevin.

Kevin Kerr, KerrAlert.com (Kerr): Well, good to be here, thank you.

Todd Sullivan attended this week's Value Investing Congress on behalf of Seeking Alpha.

Leon Cooperman presented on "The Investing Climate and All-Weather Stocks"

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Steelmakers Try to Deal With Weakening Demand