Tim Plaehn

http://timplaehn.com

147 Comments

    • More Clues Housing Bottom May Be Near in Sacramento [view article]
      I take my data from broadly published reports that collect their data from the entire market. I understand someone can make different assumptions from walking around their block, but that is a pretty limited sample.

      There was a huge amount of fraud concerning the mortgages of those who bought or refinanced during the market peak of 2005 and 2006. I would assume that most of those homes have been walked away from by now and in the hands of banks. The 4000 buyers a month now in Sacramento are getting homes at attractive prices and with decent mortgages. Those buyers will be fine as will those who purchased before 2004 and did not refinance at higher values to withdraw cash.

       Sep 29 10:32 AM
    • Analysts See Value In CPST [view article]
      This is one of those stocks that has great prospects but has yet to generate a profit. I have found that the jump to profitability is the step many small caps fail to make and end up breaking the shareholders. I try to wait until a company show it can generate ongoing profits and if the growth potential is there, buying opportunities will provide excellent returns for investors. Sep 29 08:38 AM
    • Taking a Risk - With 20% Yields [view article]
      Belief in a global recession may be very misplaced. The wheels of industry continue to turn in many parts of the globe. Ships ordered years in advance can be canceled and will be as speculators in the business are unable to obtain financing in the current environment. Financially strong players will have the opportunity to pick up vessels as their business demands them. Sep 27 09:14 AM
    • Taking a Risk - With 20% Yields [view article]
      That is why I did not look at it a year ago! Sep 26 06:47 PM
    • Airlines Becoming Luxury Goods [view article]
      Will US Air management be even happier with empty seats so the planes stay even cleaner and nicer? I have a sister-in-law who flies to various parts of the world on a weekly basis and US Air is her last choice of airlines. Crappy service and charges for the extras do not make loyal customers. Sep 26 11:02 AM
    • Housing Sales Continue Their Decline [view article]
      Do you notice sales in the West had a 5% YoY increase? California will lead the way out of the real estate slump. Sep 26 09:23 AM
    • Las Vegas & Sacramento Housing Show Big Gains: Is Real Estate About to Surge? [view article]
      I believe there are plenty of qualified buyers sitting on the sideline. FHA and VA loans are readily available to good credit buyers with less than 5% down payment. The 10% of buyers who needed subprime credit are out of luck, but the majority of those are already renters or soon will be. Prospective buyers have been sitting on the sidelines for 2 years now and will act when they perceive a bottom in prices IMO. Sep 17 10:41 AM
    • Rumors of Interest Rate Cuts Are Back on the Front Burner [view article]
      I want just one more rate cut before my ARM resets in December. Would put my rate at under 5%.

      The U.S. needs low rates to resart the housing industry. At this time I think all other considerations are off the table as far as rate increases until some recovery is seen in housing. 30 yr. fixed mortgages in the low 5's will help and the Fed knows that.       Sep 12 08:39 AM
    • Is Fertilizer Starting to Stink? [view article]
      During the recent pull down of financial stocks even those with zero exposure to the subprime or any other possible write downs were taken to prices that were 4 to 5 times earnings. That could happen if the fertilizers stay out of favor.

      A month or so ago I stated here that I thought POT could go to $120. That was when it was just under $200. Seems well on its way!       Sep 12 08:34 AM
    • Are Bank Failures on the Rise? [view article]
      Yes, going from 3 to 7 is almost a 250% increase, it is also only 4 more so far this quarter and 0.0008 of all of the FDIC insured banks.

      Compare these numbers to the 120+ banks taken over per year during the S&L crisis.       Sep 08 08:25 AM
    • Fannie and Freddie: 80% Dilution [view article]
      I have no position in FRE or FNM. Never have. I do own a few shares of TMA. I am more interested if this move by the Fed will lead to lower mortgage rates and an improving housing market. Strong housing is a much better positive for the country than anything that can happen to Fannie or Freddie. Sep 07 06:38 PM
    • A First Look Inside the Fannie / Freddie Bailout Plan [view article]
      According to the news, the total amount of preferred issued is $36 billion. Not a huge sum in relation to the $13 trillion of banking assets. Investors holding these things should know better. Sep 07 12:33 PM
    • A First Look Inside the Fannie / Freddie Bailout Plan [view article]
      Nice job getting this up quick. I expect to see some analysis as the day goes along but I believe this will be very positive for the mortgage market. Not so positive for common and preferred shareholders.

      An immediate cut in mortgage rates would get the housing market and economy rolling pretty quickly. Let us hope.       Sep 07 11:57 AM
    • Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy? [view article]
      Concerning TNH. Terra Industries owns 75% of the shares and at current levels take 50% of the distributable cash on the shares they do not own. If you like TNH, TRA is the better option, IMO. Check out my articles here or on my blog concerning TRA and TNH. Sep 05 08:58 AM
    • Pulte, Gafisa: Hot Theories and Housing Stocks [view article]
      I too have my eye on Gafisa, but since the emerging market sector is out of favor, no company can buck the performance chasing U.S. stock markets.

      Great post on trends I have been thinking about a lot lately.       Sep 05 08:42 AM
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