Tim Plaehn

http://timplaehn.com
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155 Comments

    • Fri Sep 12th 08:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Rumors of Interest Rate Cuts Are Back on the Front Burner
      I want just one more rate cut before my ARM resets in December. Would put my rate at under 5%.

      The U.S. needs low rates to resart the housing industry. At this time I think all other considerations are off the table as far as rate increases until some recovery is seen in housing. 30 yr. fixed mortgages in the low 5's will help and the Fed knows that.
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    • Fri Sep 12th 08:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Fertilizer Starting to Stink?
      During the recent pull down of financial stocks even those with zero exposure to the subprime or any other possible write downs were taken to prices that were 4 to 5 times earnings. That could happen if the fertilizers stay out of favor.

      A month or so ago I stated here that I thought POT could go to $120. That was when it was just under $200. Seems well on its way!
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    • Mon Sep 8th 08:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are Bank Failures on the Rise?
      Yes, going from 3 to 7 is almost a 250% increase, it is also only 4 more so far this quarter and 0.0008 of all of the FDIC insured banks.

      Compare these numbers to the 120+ banks taken over per year during the S&L crisis.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 7th 18:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie: 80% Dilution
      I have no position in FRE or FNM. Never have. I do own a few shares of TMA. I am more interested if this move by the Fed will lead to lower mortgage rates and an improving housing market. Strong housing is a much better positive for the country than anything that can happen to Fannie or Freddie.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 7th 12:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A First Look Inside the Fannie / Freddie Bailout Plan
      According to the news, the total amount of preferred issued is $36 billion. Not a huge sum in relation to the $13 trillion of banking assets. Investors holding these things should know better.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 7th 11:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A First Look Inside the Fannie / Freddie Bailout Plan
      Nice job getting this up quick. I expect to see some analysis as the day goes along but I believe this will be very positive for the mortgage market. Not so positive for common and preferred shareholders.

      An immediate cut in mortgage rates would get the housing market and economy rolling pretty quickly. Let us hope.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
      Concerning TNH. Terra Industries owns 75% of the shares and at current levels take 50% of the distributable cash on the shares they do not own. If you like TNH, TRA is the better option, IMO. Check out my articles here or on my blog concerning TRA and TNH.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 08:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pulte, Gafisa: Hot Theories and Housing Stocks
      I too have my eye on Gafisa, but since the emerging market sector is out of favor, no company can buck the performance chasing U.S. stock markets.

      Great post on trends I have been thinking about a lot lately.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 3rd 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lack of Integrity: 10th Bank Failure of 2008 on Poor Risk Management
      10 bank failures this year vs. over 120 per year during the S&L crisis. Not quite crisis level yet.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 31st 11:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Prime Foreclosures Now Greater Than Subprime
      Since the pool of prime mortgages is much larger than the subprime the "number" does not mean much. Take a look at the chart above:
      2.1% of prime loans 60+ days behind up less than 1% from July 2007 while 13.8% of subprime loans are delinquent compared to 10% one year ago. Does not look like a "crisis" in prime loans to me.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 29th 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ethanol: Our Answer to Reducing U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
      Mr. Eye. When you put gas in your car do you figure the energy equivalent basis or just gallons and price? People mostly just care how much it costs to fill up and if they are filling with U.S. produced fuel at a lower price they feel pretty good about it.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ethanol: Our Answer to Reducing U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
      My bad, although it took 30 comments before someone pointed it out. Annual gas consumption should be 140 Billion gallons. I have also read 180 billion gallons, but I took the number from the last source I was using.

      For all of you sugar fans, did you read U.S. Sugar gave all of their Florida sugar land back to the U.S. government to stop the destruction of the Everglades.

      Using E-blends greater than 10% voids a new car warranty. After the warranty period it does not make a difference. How many diesel pickup owners run biodiesel in their trucks (against warranty)? Google it sometime.

      Mr Eye: At current total production of 9 billion gallons per year every gallon is being bought immediately and ethanol imports from Brazil are growing rapidly and will exceed 700 million gallons for 2008. And 10% is 10%. No equivalent anything. 10 gallons of ethanol + 90 gallons of gasoline. Coming to every gas station near you!
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 15:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!
      Real headline: "Home sales in state soar as prices plunge"

      Patrick version: "California median price dropped 40.3% in year"

      Very one-sided site leading the pessimists.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!
      Headline fixed by SA. Thanks.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 15:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!
      Unfortunately SA changed my headline (which I should have repeated in the post) that existing home sales in California were 43% higher in July than a year earlier. I will see if they can add it in.
      View article »
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