Tim Plaehn

http://timplaehn.com
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155 Comments

    • Wed Aug 27th 08:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      OFHEO: Home Prices Increased in 30 Out of 50 States Over Past Year
      I saw the same report. The media is really skewing this story.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 10:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Two Ethanol Plays: Pros and Cons
      Can't use either corn or NG as vehicle fuel. Ethanol is currently 7% of the auto fuel used in the country and rising.
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    • Sun Aug 24th 09:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase
      Quote: "What I particularly like about this 216% number is that it reminds me a lot of another number, 201%, which is the 2007 stock price increase."

      It appears the market anticipated the 2008 growth in 2007. Now the market may be anticipating some slowing for 2009. 200% growth "as far as the eye can see" is a pretty strong assumption.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 24th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Real Estate Bubble Is Only in 4 States: CA, FL, NV, AZ
      Truly an interesting analysis. Of course CA & FL comprise something like 18% of the U.S. population so the 4 hard hit states comprise a fifth of the country's housing. Also, I believe those 4 states have much more of a trade up mentality vs. long term home ownership prevalent in other parts of the country.

      California is starting to show signs of a market bottom. Year over year sales increases in both So Cal and the SF Bay area for the first time in 3 years and Sacramento has shown 4 months of YoY increases. Neighboring LV has 7 months of YoY increases. Still waiting for price stability as the majority of sales in these areas come from bank owned real estate, but the signs of a bottom are there.

      Let us see what the Case Shiller report shows tomorrow.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 15:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive
      John, I do not think Thornburg will get too far away from their previous business model. They just need to find some more stable financing options. They did not write Alt-A business or use computer scored credit apps. Their underwriting standards were significantly tougher than "conforming" standards because they planned to hold the mortgages they originated rather than packaging them up and selling to an unsuspecting investors.

      Sorry, I just read the Bloomberg article and Larry Goldstone outlined 4 possible options of which you only mentioned two:

      "Goldstone outlined four options: obtaining secured financing from banks; selling its portfolio of assets as a security; gaining government protection by starting or buying a bank; or adjusting its reverse-repurchase model."

      The main reason I write my blog and do stock analysis is that the major financial news outlets often get the facts wrong about many companies especially outside the megacap mega-interest stocks.
      Kind of like your comment above.

      I currently own some stock in TMA's DRIP program. Fortunately I sold the bulk of my account last year at around $25. I still like the company, people and how they do business. I hope they thrive and prosper. The recent successful tender of preferred shares allows them to stay in business and try to rebuild from here.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 13:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive
      When I wrote this article TMA was 25 cents a share. Seems the market gets it.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 13:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed
      REEconomist, I like the numbers. Throw in some overhead, salaries, commission and you have a breakeven of $250k and probably selling for $280k. 1600 sq. ft is just above entry level in Sacramento, so you can see why the $200k repos are so popular.

      My analysis above was not meant to be rigorous, I just read the quote and thought it would make an interesting discussion. Today Gov. Terminator just added Sacramento to the list of areas where 1st time buyers can qualify for low rate financing on repo property. The state has $200 million in the pool and it will go fast to suck up another 1000 bank owned homes.

      For those who haven't visited my blog (shame on you) the Sacramento market has had YoY sales increases for 4 straight months and repos are being sold 3 times faster than new foreclosures. I believe the market will be in pretty good shape in another 6-12 months and those buying now will be happy they did.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 15:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      For Those Infrastructure Plays, Everything You Ever Needed To Know About Cement
      I too am a fan of KHD. I believe they are more on the concrete plant side vs. cement.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 15:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      For Those Infrastructure Plays, Everything You Ever Needed To Know About Cement
      Take a look at Headwaters (HW), small cap company with one line of business selling fly ash as an environmentally friendly cement replacement.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 08:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi
      Quote: ""The market has failed to recognize that demand for grains rarely cycle..."

      However, grain prices have a very strong cyclical trend and fertilizer prices tend to follow grain prices. A few bumper worldwide crop yields could push prices to levels of just a few years ago and a third of current prices.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 18th 09:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Battery Technology: A Different Set of Rules
      Thought provoking article. I know zip about this sector and it is good to see pros and cons.

      User 244880, I think you have valid points but your emotionalism tends to make you look more like a fanatic than a rational investor. More facts, less sensationalism and tell us what you own.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 10:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      KHD Humboldt Wedag: An Undervalued Winner
      By focusing on emerging economies it seems KHD can avoid the cyclical nature of the concrete business.

      On the acquisition front, it seems they are following the same conservative practices. It would not break my heart if they decided to do a share buy back or pay a one time dividend with some of the cash instead.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 08:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deere & Co: Thinking is Not Rewarded in This Market
      I am finding it very hazardous to fight the market's rotation in and out of sectors. If you find a good company that seems undervalued, it pay to be patient until the market gets done killing the sector. Then more patience until it rotates back into the sector again. Ag seems to be out after climbing too high on the up trend.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 09:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      VeraSun Energy: A Growth Stock Reborn
      D-man, I agree, the company's revenue growth will plateau sometime late next year. In the mean time there is room for increasing production, expense reduction and better spreads. I think the stock will benefit over the next 5-6 quarters.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 11th 09:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hydropower: The Renewable Energy Elephant in the Room
      Informative article, Thanks.
      View article »
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