Tim Plaehn

http://timplaehn.com
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155 Comments

    • Mon Aug 4th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?
      Has anyone figured how much more energy farmers are using to harvest the same amount of corn that they harvested before ethanol became a major user of corn. I would guess that energy usage in the farm belt has not changed since the ethanol boom. The corn raised is just going for a different purpose. The same number of corn acreage is still being planted.

      Since this is a stock market blog: buy VeraSun Energy, VSE, enjoy the boom.

      Final note, at the present time Brazil has enough excess ethanol capacity to provide less than 10% of the U.S. demand and are already shipping most of their excess capacity to the U.S. It would take them several years to tear up enough rain forest to plant enough sugar and build enough plants to make a major dent in the U.S. usage.
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    • Sat Aug 2nd 11:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in Tankers: Ship, Ship, Hooray?
      Be careful quoting yields on these stocks as dividend fluctuate greatly. NAT has indicated they will pay in excess of $1.50 for the 2nd quarter. BTW, NAT is all Suezmax tankers, a slightly different market than the VLCCs.

      SFL is a great choice if you think tanker rates will drop. They lease FRO about 1/2 their fleet and have first call on revenues plus profit participation. Dividend is steady here and growing, yield just under 8%.

      I own both SFL and NAT to participate in both hot and cooler tanker markets. Dividends are reinvested in the most attractive at the time.
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    • Fri Aug 1st 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in Infrastructure
      Infrastructure etfs: IGF and GII. My favorite infrastructure stock: KHD. $1 billion market cap, market: asia and russia, growing 40% per year.
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    • Thu Jul 31st 09:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Terra Industries: Powerful Growth in the Strong Agri-Chemical Sector
      Although I like TRA a lot and feel there still is some room for increased earnings, this is a classic cyclical which is the reason for the PE range. Remember from your investment basics, cyclicals have peaked when the PE reaches its low and is ready to run up when the PE is highest.

      My hope is that TRA management uses the current excessive cash flow to buy back shares and pay some dividends to enhance shareholder value. The earnings growth is almost 100% price driven, no new capacity is being added, and at some time prices will level of not fall. Nature of the fertilizer business.
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    • Thu Jul 31st 08:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ETF Update: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs, Short ETFs, Microcaps
      Leveraged and inverse ETFs appear to be as close to gambling as you can get outside of Las Vegas. They are OK as an overall portfolio hedge, but many will be hurt by making a large, wrong bet.
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    • Wed Jul 30th 12:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Can Go Right for the Financials? Quite a Bit, Actually
      Tom, your well reasoned articles have no effect on the ostriches, but the market seems to agree we have seen the bottom. So far this year only 7 banks have gone under and most are still profitable. Here at SA, just go back to the last article touting the financial double inverse ETF, SKF on July 16 by Jimmy Lathrop. Note the date.

      Over the next few months if house prices bottom (I think they will) it will all turn upward very rapidly. Bubble leading real estate markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Sacramento are showing rapidly increasing home sales. Those on the sidelines waiting for the price bottom will jump in at the first indication of price stability.

      Final note to commenters, please learn the difference between brokerages and banks. I know many blur the line, but companies like Merrill live by entirely different rules than Bank of America.
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    • Wed Jul 30th 11:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bad News for Housing Stocks, Good News for Homeowners?
      This article shows the value of covered bond mortgage origination. The bank will keep the mortgage on its books and monitor the status. Adjustments and workouts with problem borrowers will be in the bank's interest to maintain their ability to make the bond payments.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 12:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seven Cities Show Slight Housing Price Gains in May
      One month of across the country price gains and the gold rush will be on. Many, many on the side lines who do not want to miss the bottom.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 09:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Beyond Petrobras: Value and Growth in the 'Other' South American Oil Companies
      Great info! Time to do my own research. Thanks for the heads up.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 09:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy Recovery Devices Offers Unique Product in Solid Global Growth Sector
      Nice article, adding this one to my watch list.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bulls Grazing in the Corn Field
      Nice article, good facts, no ax grinding. Ethanol is here to stay as a industry and will change and evolve. Odds are, our next President will be from a corn state and support continued growth in the industry.

      I currently like a combination of ethanol producer, VSE plus a fertilizer company, TRA to generate profits through the cycle.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 28th 12:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Terra Industries: An Interesting Fertilizer Play
      fireball, At this point, TRA gets about 85% of the income generated by TNH. I do not see the benefit of holding TNH over TRA unless your basis in TNH is very low. I believe TRA will build share holder value faster than TNH. Just my opinion.

      Be careful on the assumption that food prices will continue to rise. Crop yields from many parts of the world could increase exponentially with U.S. style technology and methods. China, India, Brazil and Argentina come to mind.

      Argentinian farmers can grow 2 crops of soy beans a year and would supply the world of the government there did not want to tax away 95% of the profits. I am currently in Uruguay where soy acreage (hectareage?) of soy has increased 10 fold in 5 years.

      I had a neighbor in Sacramento who was a seed scientist and was constantly traveling to China, Mexico, Chile etc. to help them grow the latest in food crops designer made for their soils and climates.

      My point is the current food shortage is probably not real, and will definitely (IMO) disappear soon. The good point is modern farm methods require fertilizer, so these companies will do well, just do not expect the recent price increases to continue.
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    • Mon Jul 28th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Terra Industries: An Interesting Fertilizer Play
      If you look at the net income for TNH the dividend would have been about $6 under the old schedule. Instead TRA took $56 million off the top reducing the dividend to $3.63. TNH had their income increase by 50% and the dividend went down, sounds like a good investment to me!
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 13:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bottom May Be Forming in Home Sales
      New home sales are adjusted for seasonality, so the season does not matter. Homebuilders are building/selling just enough to stay alive. A bad market does not mean zero sales, just low sales.

      Existing home sales have been on the rise for 3 straight months in California. (see my blog for some details) 50%-60% of the purchases are REO and slowly whittling down the inventory of bank owned homes.

      Foreclosure rates are a trailing indicator, since the average mortgage goes 5-6 months without payment before it is taken by the bank. Current foreclosures are from early this year. We will not see a change until well after it happens.

      Finally, check out the tax incentives for the new housing bill. Many will be looking to buy!
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 25th 12:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More Bad News for the Anti-Ethanol Crowd
      Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois are all pretty much Democrat territory and most farmers have been Democrats since the New Deal. Obama and Hillary both spent a lot of time in Iowa pumping up ethanol production from corn. American farmers have millions invested in land and equipment to grow corn. That is $millions$ for each farm! How much tax payer money do you think it would cost to try to switch to switch grass?

      The current ethanol producers will be the ones who get more ethanol from corn stalks and cobs as soon at it becomes economically feasible.

      For the question above: Ethanol is currently about 7% of the "gasoline" used in the U.S. It will not replace petroleum gas, but very likely be 15-20% of motor fuel by 2015. Blends of up to E30 have been shown to run fine in modern cars with no noticeable change in fuel economy, even improvement in some models.
      View article »
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