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Davy Crockett

Davy Crockett
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  • Reuters: Arch Coal could file for Chapter 11 as soon as next month [View news story]
    I've seen this sort of stock price behavior with other impending Chapter 11 situations. One that comes Immediately to mind was Orchard Supply Hardware (OSH) which declared Chapter 11 in July of 2013. As I recall, the price stayed above $1 until very near the bitter end. Most of the stores remained open, now operated by Lowe's, but the common stock ultimately became worthless. The price of OSH was simply the supply and demand game being played out, and not a rational consideration of the company's value. Part of the demand was fed by short positions covering (even though there's no need to cover if the stock becomes worthless), and there was a certain amount of last fool standing going on with end game traders. ACI has over 30% short interest so apparently a similar thing is going on. In addition, there are still a fair number of ACI investors who cling to the hope that a last minute miracle will occur, and that perception/refusal to liquidate boosts the stock price a little bit. I doubt that the current price of ACI is an indication of anything going on behind the scenes.
    Nov 10, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why $116-$120 Will Soon Be History [View article]
    Cover today. A bird in the hand... Why should you have any degree of confidence that tomorrow's earnings report will be a downer? Count your blessings and move on.
    Oct 26, 2015. 12:15 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Goes To War With China's Pirates [View article]
    The Chinese websites that distribute supposedly "free" video and music content are loaded with adware, malware, and spyware, so it isn't free. Part of Apple's task will be in convincing Chinese consumers of the advantages of having an uncompromised fully functional computer, tablet or phone by paying an affordable price for legal content.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Pixar iPhone [View article]
    Apple = Ma Bell? I don't think so.
    Sep 23, 2015. 12:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Upgrade Program To Depress Short-Term Revenues, Introduce Long-Term Risks [View article]
    All good points, Aquilla. Thinking more long term, there are additional revenue enhancers that Apple could benefit from if they end up with millions of additional one year old iPhones for resale. It has been Apple's practice to keep three lines of iPhone in production at any one time. In the future, some portion of the demand for the two older models could be satisfied via refurbished returns, allowing Apple's (Foxconn's) production to shift more towards the newest model, at little or no additional cost. Besides allowing Apple to better keep up with demand during the Christmas rush, they may also persuade buyers who are vacillating on an iPhone purchase because of the current long wait time vs Samsung's no wait to move into the Apple camp, where they are likely to be repeat customers in years to come. It seems like a very safe bet that Apple can easily recoup costs and then some on reselling one year returns; unlike Ebay phones, Apple can sell these phones with a full two years of AppleCare+, which should allow them to fetch top dollar.
    Sep 14, 2015. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Component Of Apple's Long-Term Return [View article]
    @Vincent1966: You are partially right, but mostly wrong, especially where Apple is concerned. Manufacturing home computers is definitely not a low margin business for Apple, because they have concentrated on maintaining exclusivity in that market. One of the first crucial steps that Steve Jobs took upon resuming his leadership in 1997 was to end the practice of licensing out the OS to other manufacturers. Apple sells about 10% of the world's PCs but reaps over 50% of the profits. Apple is also better at maintaining repeat customers compared to any other consumer tech companies, partially because of the exclusive/unique character of their products, but a major factor is their customer service focused approach towards doing business, second to none in personal tech. Not coincidentally, Apple stores have higher sales per square foot than any retailer with multiple outlets on this planet. There is no indication at all by revenue figures and units sold that the iPhone phenomenon is largely over - it appears stronger than ever. Yes, that day will come - all good things eventually end, but I'm confident that Apple management is busy preparing for that eventuality.
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bonds: Heavy Trading Volume Is A Concern But Default Risk Remains Low [View article]
    If an Apple default / bankruptcy were to occur, it would probably coincide with or be initiated by horrendous world events, which would be far more troubling than the idea of losing one's Apple investment.
    Sep 3, 2015. 09:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsinghua chairman visits U.S. to discuss Micron bid [View news story]
    The deal will not go through because Tsinghua Unigroup is substantially Chinese government controlled and owned, and Micron is a defense contractor.
    Aug 28, 2015. 03:50 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    Ultracapacitors may be the way to go for recovering braking and downhill kinetic energy and supplemental performance in tandem with fuel cells. Honda seems to think so. They have the advantage of essentially unlimited lifespan and no limitation on charging speed; disadvantage of much lower charge density than lithium batteries.
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe's CHMP backs Keryx Pharma's ferric citrate for elevated phosphorus in CKD patients [View news story]
    Lowest price in two years. Difficult to fathom, given the gradually improving news. I accept abdullah999's advice and will stay the course. Should we expect the shorts to start covering, given the magnitude of the dip and the likelihood that we are probably close to the bottom?
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    The market cap of Netflix is extremely crazy, since each subscriber is now worth an average of about $650, or almost eight years of revenue. Each recent subscriber (past two quarters) is worth thousands of dollars. Is Netflix the new illogical teflon stock, similar to Amazon?
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone: Why Slightly Bigger Means Much Better [View article]
    More like self-fulfilling prophecies. Their degree of validity stems from the herd behavior of those who believe in them and act upon them.
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Clobbers Samsung In China [View article]
    Don't forget kitchen ranges. I'm a former chef, and I highly recommend Samsung gas ranges to anyone who would like performance comparable to high end ranges at a much more affordable price point.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beats 1 Is The New iPod And Apple's Latest Bet [View article]
    Sirius will continue to struggle, with or without Howard Stern. He represents less than 5% of the Sirius audience, he is extremely well paid on a per listener basis, so his departure will be relatively inconsequential for them. I have Sirius in my car, and I've never listened to him. I rarely use Sirius for music; I use it mostly for news and sports. Satellite isn't obsolete; it offers coverage in areas where 3g and 4g is unavailable - most of the globe.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Is Making Luxury Watchmakers Uncomfortable [View article]
    It appears to me that Warren Buffett is living exactly as he wants to live, and it isn't a middle class existence. Individuals of modest means don't give away billions of dollars. I find it entirely inappropriate for you to compare Buffett to wealthy individuals who end up homeless because of serious mental health issues. By contrast, Buffett's asset allocation decisions appear to be entirely sane because he has not endangered himself, his family, or anyone else.
    Jun 5, 2015. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment