Davy Crockett

Davy Crockett
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  • Netflix on watch after hitting major roadblock in Indonesia  [View news story]
    JP24: How is this "an example of the many, many unknown risks that Netflix will continue to encounter as they expand internationally"? Do you actually believe that Netflix went into these 130 additional countries not knowing the number of broadband users available as potential customers for Netflix streaming?
    Jan 29, 2016. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix on watch after hitting major roadblock in Indonesia  [View news story]
    I won't put a positive spin on this story, but I will put it in perspective. The "major roadblock" referenced in the title is extremely inconsequential in terms of the existing potential world market for Netflix subscriptions. Although there are 85 million internet users in Indonesia, only a small percentage of the internet connections there can effectively stream Netflix content. There are only about 3-4 million fixed broadband connections, and the average cellular data download speed is about 300 kbps, meaning that 4g customers are still quite rare. Netflix will work things out with Telkom Indonesia in plenty of time to take advantage of an expanding potential customer base in that country. This story has no legs.
    Jan 29, 2016. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Netflix's Q4: Time To Take The Chips Off The Table?  [View article]
    Netflix already has tier pricing, based upon resolution of streaming and the number of simultaneous viewers (screens), and of course, there are still about 5 million mail subscribers with their own set of tiers based upon the number of discs that can be taken out at one time and whether or not they are Blu-ray. The vast majority of mail subscribers have plans that also include streaming. Discs are still an extremely profitable part of Netflix business, with a 49% margin (according to the NY Times) and compensate for all of the international streaming losses with a lot of change leftover. Content available exclusively on disc also represents about half or more of Netflix catalog of offerings. Obviously, the days for the disc part of the business are numbered, but I can't imagine that Reed Hastings would give up on half of the Netflix catalog; he's too much of a movie buff. Expanded streaming content will mean price increases and almost certainly price tiers based upon content inclusion.
    Jan 21, 2016. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Curb Your Enthusiasm  [View article]
    I noticed that a lot of naysayer pundits were out in force on Wednesday AM attempting to spin the Q4 results as negatively as possible. David Trainer of Forbes actually referred to Netflix as a failing business. For a while investors bought their line and the stock plunged 10% very quickly. Very Orwellian, obvious manipulation
    Jan 21, 2016. 03:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Netflix's Q4: Time To Take The Chips Off The Table?  [View article]
    "...Where does Netflix go from here now that the big international expansion is largely complete?"

    Say what? Netflix just entered 130 new markets. Which means that the big international expansion is not largely complete, it is just barely beginning; Netflix just got its foot in the door in most of the world's countries. Now the monumental task is to gain substantial market share in as many of these new sales territories as possible. That also implies that it will be a very long while before Netflix needs to be concerned about transitioning from a growth company to a maturing company, something that MCD is struggling with at present.
    Jan 21, 2016. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is My Top Short Pick For 2016  [View article]
    The 2015 Q4 earnings report is of course anybody's guess, but it is worth noting that NFLX has surprised to the upside on Q4 results for the past 7 years in a row, including 2008 Q4. The stock has traded higher the day after earnings by at least 15% in each of the previous 7 years. My bet is that the pattern will continue.
    Jan 19, 2016. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is My Top Short Pick For 2016  [View article]
    @Traderjflaw: I second your comment. Europe is about to embrace Netflix with enthusiasm - market penetration has been low but will soon change. The service was unavailable in most of Eastern Europe until now. Those who have opened short positions recently are about to feel some pain, because historically in the days following the release of fourth quarter results the share price has spiked by double digit percentiles almost every single year.
    Jan 14, 2016. 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is My Top Short Pick For 2016  [View article]
    Nobody is claiming that Netflix will sign up the same percentage of subscribers in poor countries as they do in more affluent places. Netflix competitors will face exactly the same challenges that Netflix will facing in such places, plus the additional challenge of overcoming the Netflix advantage of being first to market all over the world.
    Jan 13, 2016. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Several iPhone Risks In Review: Apple Is About To Show Declining iPhone Shipments  [View article]
    I agree with ramachan; the author has greatly overemphasized camera specs as a driver of sales. Much of what makes a camera superior is not reflected in the advertised specs. The accuracy of the auto-focus, white balance, color rendition and saturation, etc. can't be judged based upon specs that are available to the consumer. The factors that I have mentioned are all areas that iPhone cameras have consistently excelled at through the years compared to almost all competitors. Camera quality is certainly important, but it isn't the first consideration that the average consumer weighs when arriving at a buying decision. If camera quality and specs were of such crucial importance, then one might reasonably expect consumers to overlook the shortcomings of the Windows Mobile OS and turn Nokia smartphones into sales leaders, based upon their generally excellent cameras.
    Dec 1, 2015. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Arch Coal could file for Chapter 11 as soon as next month  [View news story]
    I've seen this sort of stock price behavior with other impending Chapter 11 situations. One that comes Immediately to mind was Orchard Supply Hardware (OSH) which declared Chapter 11 in July of 2013. As I recall, the price stayed above $1 until very near the bitter end. Most of the stores remained open, now operated by Lowe's, but the common stock ultimately became worthless. The price of OSH was simply the supply and demand game being played out, and not a rational consideration of the company's value. Part of the demand was fed by short positions covering (even though there's no need to cover if the stock becomes worthless), and there was a certain amount of last fool standing going on with end game traders. ACI has over 30% short interest so apparently a similar thing is going on. In addition, there are still a fair number of ACI investors who cling to the hope that a last minute miracle will occur, and that perception/refusal to liquidate boosts the stock price a little bit. I doubt that the current price of ACI is an indication of anything going on behind the scenes.
    Nov 10, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why $116-$120 Will Soon Be History  [View article]
    Cover today. A bird in the hand... Why should you have any degree of confidence that tomorrow's earnings report will be a downer? Count your blessings and move on.
    Oct 26, 2015. 12:15 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Goes To War With China's Pirates  [View article]
    The Chinese websites that distribute supposedly "free" video and music content are loaded with adware, malware, and spyware, so it isn't free. Part of Apple's task will be in convincing Chinese consumers of the advantages of having an uncompromised fully functional computer, tablet or phone by paying an affordable price for legal content.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Pixar iPhone  [View article]
    Apple = Ma Bell? I don't think so.
    Sep 23, 2015. 12:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Upgrade Program To Depress Short-Term Revenues, Introduce Long-Term Risks  [View article]
    All good points, Aquilla. Thinking more long term, there are additional revenue enhancers that Apple could benefit from if they end up with millions of additional one year old iPhones for resale. It has been Apple's practice to keep three lines of iPhone in production at any one time. In the future, some portion of the demand for the two older models could be satisfied via refurbished returns, allowing Apple's (Foxconn's) production to shift more towards the newest model, at little or no additional cost. Besides allowing Apple to better keep up with demand during the Christmas rush, they may also persuade buyers who are vacillating on an iPhone purchase because of the current long wait time vs Samsung's no wait to move into the Apple camp, where they are likely to be repeat customers in years to come. It seems like a very safe bet that Apple can easily recoup costs and then some on reselling one year returns; unlike Ebay phones, Apple can sell these phones with a full two years of AppleCare+, which should allow them to fetch top dollar.
    Sep 14, 2015. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Component Of Apple's Long-Term Return  [View article]
    @Vincent1966: You are partially right, but mostly wrong, especially where Apple is concerned. Manufacturing home computers is definitely not a low margin business for Apple, because they have concentrated on maintaining exclusivity in that market. One of the first crucial steps that Steve Jobs took upon resuming his leadership in 1997 was to end the practice of licensing out the OS to other manufacturers. Apple sells about 10% of the world's PCs but reaps over 50% of the profits. Apple is also better at maintaining repeat customers compared to any other consumer tech companies, partially because of the exclusive/unique character of their products, but a major factor is their customer service focused approach towards doing business, second to none in personal tech. Not coincidentally, Apple stores have higher sales per square foot than any retailer with multiple outlets on this planet. There is no indication at all by revenue figures and units sold that the iPhone phenomenon is largely over - it appears stronger than ever. Yes, that day will come - all good things eventually end, but I'm confident that Apple management is busy preparing for that eventuality.
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment