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flux8

flux8
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  • Momentum stocks have their worst day yet [View news story]
    Let's be fair, there have been warning signs for weeks now. I finally had enough and got out on Monday. I'm staying away until at least early June.
    Apr 10 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • KGI: Apple launching bigger iPhones, iWatch, 12" MacBook Air in 2014 [View news story]
    1. It could have a been a strategic move. They know how fiercely loyal most of their customers are. So the plan may have been essentially to give Samsung lots of leeway to screw themselves over without anything truly innovative. The larger screens gave them some marketshare but didn't really steal very many iPhone users.

    2. It could have been technical. They may have been unable to make a large screen with thin bezel that would enable them to keep the phone under a certain size. Samsung makes a large screen yes. But along with that, the phone itself is huge and not what I would want to carry around with me in my pockets.
    Apr 10 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: iOS/Mac OS updates, baseband chips, search hiring [View news story]
    What exactly is screwed up about iOS 7? Last I checked, my iPhone and iPad work just fine and just as easily as iOS 6.

    You don't understand the "obsession" maps? Location is an essential part of mobile computing. You seriously don't understand why?
    Apr 9 12:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    @Alex
    Um, of course it was opinionated. It was an opinion - a prediction of what will happen in the future. I never said otherwise. I'm a little surprised that you took offense since I don't believe I was rude about it.

    All of this is a moot point anyhow. Apple will never buy Comcast or do any of things you mentioned above. And if you know Apple as well as you claim to, you should know this.
    Apr 8 01:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    The people using Comcast pipes for cable TV are already using it for cable internet. If they cut cable TV, they're only left with cable internet. That's a LOT less revenue for Comcast unless they plan on making your monthly bill $120 a month just for internet. If they do, watch the revolt.
    Apr 7 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Investors Took A Bath Friday; This May Be Just The Beginning [View article]
    You won't know if they were really good deals for some time.
    Apr 7 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    I've been thinking about this for awhile too. Ultimately I don't think it's ever going to happen, and probably shouldn't. On the surface it sounds appealing but transitioning all those cable customers over to Apple TV while maintaining Comcast's revenue streams would be tricky at best.

    Meanwhile, why force a transition that's already happening on its own? Cable cutting is picking up momentum and customers are gradually moving onto internet based TV. The cable model is dying - people are becoming fed up with it. The only thing keeping cable alive is live sports. And maybe Game of Thrones. But even that isn't enough as costs continue to go up and more and more people feel like they're being fleeced. Letting the customers transition themselves away from cable doesn't cost Apple a dime.

    Furthermore, we see evidence that an increasing amount of content will be made by internet based companies such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Yahoo, and now, Microsoft. The power is shifting away from cable. It's just a matter of waiting them out and offering disgruntled content providers and alternative. Note how AMC makes their current offerings available via iTunes. I suspect we'll see more and more of this.
    Apr 7 02:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Investors Took A Bath Friday; This May Be Just The Beginning [View article]
    I agree that short-term risks for momentum stocks are high and the overall market appears to be in a precarious position. As of this morning, I've moved half of my positions in equities into cash and plan on staying there at least until June. I think April and May are going to be a bumpy ride downwards.

    The only position I'm staying in is Apple, but I've initiated covered calls at $565 (expiration Apr 25) and will keep doing so on a monthly basis for the next couple of months. I expect a dividend raise to put a floor at approximately $500, and Apple TV/iPhone 6 should be a catalyst to raise the price back to $550-600 range.
    Apr 7 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Everyone in Norway is rich?? Damn socialists.

    /s
    Apr 3 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dividend At $20 In 5 Years? Not Gonna Happen [View article]
    @alcaraz
    Don't step in a boxing ring if you don't want to get hit.
    Mar 31 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No To iWatch This Year [View article]
    ANY prediction about the iWatch and its potential sales by anyone other than a high level insider at Apple, is 100% useless. That includes this author, Kane, and all the other "analysts" on Wall Street.

    You can't analyze what you can't see and what hasn't been done before.
    Mar 31 02:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No To iWatch This Year [View article]
    So...you haven't seen the product, you don't know the specs, you don't know what it will do, you don't know how far along in development it is, and you don't know the price. But you're going to advise Apple to not release it this year anyhow?

    24k gold plated watch with diamonds? Camera and pico projector? IOW, you don't know much about Apple's design philosophy either.
    Mar 31 01:09 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Will Short Pandora Furiously Until The Letter 'P' Key Falls Off My Keyboard [View article]
    "Sorry @flux, I don't see any of these risks as significant or plausible."

    That's very unfortunate.
    Mar 27 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Will Short Pandora Furiously Until The Letter 'P' Key Falls Off My Keyboard [View article]
    I think it's highly risky to hold on to a stock in the hopes of a buyout. Especially when the valuation is as high as P.

    The problem with P as a buyout is that they don't have much of a moat. Whatsapp at least had an arguable moat. But Pandora's business is highly assailable since it depends on:
    1) Advertisers who can easily shift their business elsewhere once they see the listeners shift.
    2) Royalty costs - which can easily be raised or even taken away if music labels feel like they can get more from Google, Microsoft, Apple, and others.
    3) Loyalty - there really isn't much listener loyalty. People may use Pandora because they've been there awhile and that's what they've heard of. But with the iPhone 6 coming out this year, if Apple installs the next version of iTunes Radio as a separate app (as rumored), there will be little incentive to install more radio apps and clutter up the phone.

    These are significant and plausible risks that make Pandora's future look rather bleak. And I haven't even discussed Pandora's exclusion from CarPlay. Without a moat, why would anyone spend money to buy them, when they can just as easily grown their own radio solution?
    Mar 24 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Will Short Pandora Furiously Until The Letter 'P' Key Falls Off My Keyboard [View article]
    @dgulick
    I'm not a daytrader, so my guess is as good as the next person when it comes to timing the stock price. If you time it right, you can be either long or short and be correct on ANY stock.

    But my call of P as a dead stock walking is a long term call and it remains. Within 5 years time, P will either be out of business, a shadow of its current self (with regards to stock price), or bought out. The last option is really the only one I consider seriously as a risk to my short position b/c I honestly don't know how other big companies would value them, considering FB bought Whatsapp for $16 billion. But a long term long position in P, IMHO, is a bad idea.

    Feel free to hang onto your shares though. One of us will be right. And it will be a learning experience for all of us. I don't have that much money invested in my short position anyhow, so it won't be an expensive lesson for me even if I'm wrong. Good luck.
    Mar 24 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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