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Deeply Concerned
2 Comments
Warren Buffett's Stock Holdings Hanging Tough During the Selloff
What To Do When the Market Goes Down
I'm sorry but I can't resist responding to the "dips are a good buying opportunity" comments -- mainly because I'm extremely concerned about the market right now. I would welcome other comments and perspectives.
As shown in the long-term chart of the S&P 500, there were several sharp declines (1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1980) but no significant cumulative increase in the S&P 500 from 1966 until 1981 -- basically a period of 15 years in a trading range. If you were invested in 1966 (and stayed invested until 1981), you lost a substantial chunk of your capital (in real terms) because those 15 years experienced substantial inflation.
The great bull market that started in 1949 had a major top in 1966 and a second major top in 1974 (based on extremely narrow breadth from the "Nifty Fifty"). In 1975, about 95% of small investors had cashed out their greatly-reduced investment accounts, and most of those persons who got burned badly never returned to the stock market.
Rather than being a good "buying opportunity" over the next few months, I have major concerns that 2007 and 2008 will resemble 1974 and 1975. No disrespect intended, but in good times after a 25-year bull market, it's easy to say that you're a "buy-and-hold investor" and "buying the dips is always a good approach" and "it's not timing the market but time in the market that matters."
Those who believe that markets always go up, except for brief short-term corrections, are naive and don't understand all the risks of investing in stocks. History has demonstrated many times that long-term bull markets end badly. After the majority of small investors lose 50% of their investment funds, there is usually a period of 10-20 years where stocks are avoided like the plague by small investors. Average profits continue to increase over time, and the average P/E ratio drops to mid-single digits, reflecting how out of favor stocks have become. This provides the basis for the next great bull market.
The great baby boom bull market started in 1982. It made a huge, speculative top in January 2000, but I do not believe it ended in early 2000 and a new bull market started in March 2003 (the valuations were still much too high). My major fear is that it made a second major top on July 16, 2007 which will be viewed with hindsight as the official end of this great bull market. If so, we're all in for a world of hurt over the next 12-18 months.