Seeking Alpha

Workinhard

Workinhard
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Workinhard's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • An Undiscovered Canadian Gem That Pays 6% [View article]
    Brad - are you saying that the shares listed on the Canadian exchange are listed in US$?
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Just Bought A High-Quality REIT With A Sound Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Community shopping centers are much different than the traditional shopping mall. So I would agree that the big "Mall of America" type centers will be very unlikely to ever be built anymore, and that only the strong, well located , giant malls will survive (like Simon Properties). The community shopping centers where I live are all mostly fully leased, and even during the 2008-2009 period, were always 90%+ leased. So to the point of Brad's article, the well located community centers will survive, adapt and do well.

    I haven't stepped into the big regional mall near me in years (although my wife and daughter are always there) but I visit the community shopping centers 3-4 x a week. Last week it was 1) Traders Joe's picking up some groceries, 2) Wegman's - groceries and beer 3) Supercuts for a haircut 4) drycleaners to have a suit cleaned 5) Five Guys Burgers - lunch with a friend 6) Staples - couple of office supplies needed that day 7) Liquor store for weekend BYOB dinner, 8) Dinner out with friends 9) UPS store to mail some returns back for my wife's online shopping (retailer pay the shipping back!). These stores are all located near my house and are east to get to. Based on the amount of cars in the lots of these centers, I'm not the only one shopping there.
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Just Bought A High-Quality REIT With A Sound Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Regarding the comments about "shopping centers worries, bricks & mortar dying, the internet is taking over everything", etc. I think Brad nailed it - there are plenty of crappy, overbuilt shopping centers that are destined to die off, be redeveloped or torn down. But there are PLENTY of highly desirable, high value retail properties in high income, high growth areas of the country , and the task is to own the REIT's that own these . It looks like BRX is one of those. The internet will not take over everything, and many bricks and mortar companies are competing with internet only retailers and in many cases are competing successfully.

    Regarding the low dividend yield. Yes it is low, but that is because the payout ratio is so low. What that indicates to me is that BRX has the ability to raise their dividend at a faster rate that some of their competitors who may not be able to raise theirs , or may have to cut in some cases. BRX is also trading at one of the lower FFO/Price valuations, so I am not so sure that it will trade off much in the future and may actually trade up toward their peers.
    Mar 16, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    A rise in rates will hit both the reit common and pfd shares, and the dividends rec'd on both are also not qualified (although the equities may have some ROC element).

    I think there is a place for pfds in any investors portfolio, esp as they approach or are in retirement - and (big and) they are only withdrawing part of the income their portfolio generates each year. The pfds provide a steady income stream, allowing an investor to maintain traditional equity holdings (both reit and non-reit) that will grow their dividends over time.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Lie: The Dead Money REITs [View article]
    I would like to see Brad interview David Gladstone and get his impressions . He certainly doesn't have a good reputation in the REIT world.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Risky Choice With Major Upside Potential [View article]
    I think you are being too optimistic using a 80-90% payout ratio, i think something in the 70% allows the new mgmt team to raise the dividend over time and retain much needed cash. But i do agree that ARCP will be trading at the low end of Price/FFO ration that will provide downside support.
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    A deal combo that makes sense to me is for ARCP to merge with GPT, with GPT's mgmr taking over mgmt of the combined entity. Gordon Dugan is well respected in the REIT industry and has experience running a large operation.
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Prospect Capital's NAV, Investment Portfolio, Dividend, And Valuation To Several BDC Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    PSEC mgmt cannot be trusted to do the right things for shareholders, they will do what benefits mgmt and their asset management firm. When we have the inevitable economicc slowdown , PSEC will be hurting. If I don't trust mgmt, I don't buy the stock - simple.
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Fresh Start [View article]
    The sell down was a combination of accounting fraud and then top mgmt apparently being forced out later - selling was not so much panic as shareholders not knowing what the true facts were. If you bought at sub $8 , well good call , but don't think you were a genius because it turned out ok so far. ARCP had grown extremely quickly through numerous acquisitions and it was not out of the question that a mgmt team raised in the non-traded reit area would have done a bunch of shady and/or fraudulent transactions all the while trying to enrich themselves at shareholder's expense. I certainly could have been a lot uglier.

    As far as ARCP going forward, they will have a squeaky clean set of financials going forward but the unknown right now is how many charges they are going to try to load into Q4/Q1'15 to put the expenses of the past debacle into the past and not be saddled with these going forward.

    As far as the dividend, I expect a payout lower than 80-90% as they will want to give the new CEO the ability to raise the dividend and payout ratio over time so I am thinking somewhere around 70% will be the number.

    I am estimating AFFO run rate for 2015 to be closer to the .90 range because of the extra legal, accounting and settlement related expenses so paying out 70% of that is $0.63, around a 6.20% yield based on a $10.11 price. That yield would put them higher than O, NNN & WPC but in line with CSG & LXP.

    I think the upside now is a little higher than the downside at this point , and over the next 2-3 years should produce a positive return , even with higher interest rates.
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Absolutely, Positively, Retire Early... Maybe [View article]
    thanks, I haven't ventured into the healthcare.gov exchange yet but will look into it in a few years when I may need it if I want to retire before 65.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Absolutely, Positively, Retire Early... Maybe [View article]
    Biggest impediment to retiring early (before 65) that is see is health insurance access and premiums. Would be interested in those that have retired early manage this. This could be a topic by itself.
    Feb 28, 2015. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    I own some JNJ but it is looking a little technically weak here , its price and 50 day MA now under its 200 Day MA . That ties in with my expectation for the market to undergo a bit of a correction from here. So for my overall portfolio, I am letting excess dividends build up for now , looking for a better entrance point for JNJ and a few other DGI stocks in own.
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bluerock Residential Pays 8.5%, Should I Buy It? [View article]
    this is typical of a privately held reit , that $10 price was probably unchanged for years and was not a true reflection of the underlying value of the shares you were privately buying. I have a suspicion that if you looked at the financials over the years you would see a good portion of fees paid to the adviser.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Attractively Priced 'Build-To-Suit' REIT That Yields 6.1% [View article]
    While there are definitely concerns with LXP, I own it because it trades at a low valuation and high dividend yield with a low payout ratio. Yes, build to suit is risky , mainly on the construction funding side, but they do have leases signed before they begin. As far as build to suit being special purpose, they are not so specialized that they couldn't be re-leased in 15-20 years when the leases expire. Their FFO growth is a concern, but they do have 5 of their build to suit projects coming online in 2015 and they do have some higher prices debt that they should be able to refinance this year at a lower rate. So I would expect some add'l FFO growth this year.

    I would not be surprised if they were bought out one day by one of their higher valued competitors. If O, NNN or WPC bought them, it would likely be an accretive deal if it was paid for in the acquirers stock.
    Feb 9, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management - BDC Manager With Permanent AUM Offers 74% Upside [View article]
    I don't see any dividends paid on this stock?

    FSAM mgmt doesn't have the best reputation, at least as far as its publically traded BDC's are concerned.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
228 Comments
597 Likes