alphaMS

Is Raser Technologies a Bargain, Or Just Cheap?

Nice call out? What does that mean? With all my comments being negative--was there some doubt as to my position on the company.
Was there anything specific that I wrote you want to comment on--or did you just want to take a pot shot at me personally, and drive on?


On Jul 24 02:51 PM Jason Hamlin wrote:

> Nice call out of Alpha, Tom. All negative comments and all about
> the same company seems a bit odd. The person is obviously trying
> to create negative sentiment towards Raser.
>
> How do you think Nevada Geothermal (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> compares to Raser? Do you like one better than the other and why?
>
>
> Thanks,
> Jason

Is Raser Technologies a Bargain, Or Just Cheap?

Tom
I have the benefit of responding after your second post. I am not sure why you are questioning “what my deal is” or throwing out the “ulterior motive” stigma.

Prior to your article, my responses were to 2-3 other writers who posted inaccurate information. I should not have to defend my position why I correct inaccurate information. My posts are negative because I have been negative on the company.
I have questioned their ability to do what they say, I have questioned their ethics, and I have questioned their overzealous ridiculous projections.
I have been correct when challenging the accuracy of prior articles and I have been right about the company. It would not make sense for me to throw out a positive comment when I think the company is full of hooey.
I became aware of this company shortly after their reverse merger. I read the filings. This thing was boxed up with only 2 million shares free trading, with something like 42 million issued and outstanding at the time. We all know what that means. While I have taken short positions in the company, I certainly knew better than to stand in front of that train at that time. The stock ran from apx $1.25 to $40 and back down.
When you spot a stock that is being manipulated it is good to keep an eye on it. When a stock is boxed up, at some point in time it collapses.

As you say this is all in the past. In my mind it paints a negative picture on the company. Especially when it is combined with grandiose projections, fluffy PRs, and ridiculous claims of being a leader in geothermal production.

This stock may run a point or two. If it does I’ll be ready to whack it—just as you will be ready to sell and take profits. Just as the company has missed their projections every year since their inception, they will miss in 2010. In my opinion. For what it is worth—at $2.00/share I would be taking a position on the long side if I had to take a position. That said, I still have a few calls I have sold—but I am very comfortable holding them.


On Jul 24 12:40 PM Tom Konrad wrote:

> Alpha,
> The question is not how badly RZ has performed in the past... that's
> why it's so cheap today... the question is, will they manage to exceed
> investors currently very low expectations.
>
> BTW, what's your deal? I see you've left 18 comments on Seeking
> Alpha, all on articles about Raser, and all negative. If you're
> a short, congrats on your large profits... I'd take them ASAP.<br/>

Is Raser Technologies a Bargain, Or Just Cheap?

While you say utilities seem to believe raser can deliver on their promises--I doubt that is the case. Their goal was to have 3 plants running in 2008 and 109 MW in place for 2009. They have fallen woefully short of their promises. They have not been delivering power to Anaheim, as you say, since 2008. It was sometime in the second quarter of 2009 and they are at best delivering 5MW on a 10MW contract. They are not delivering per the terms of the Anaheim PPA.
The costs associated with the first plant are double or triple their estimated costs. It remains to be seen if they can even deliver a plant that can produce to spec. I am extremely skeptical about this company. Early in the year, their press releases claimed they were a leader in geothermal power production--that was hardly the case then and it is not the case now

Five Reasons to Buy Raser Technologies

I thought I would drop back in. My guess is that Abraham is long gone.
I gently called BS on his numbers when he wrote this article, .e.g drilling costs. Was Abraham associated with rz or one of their PR firms? We will probably never know. What we do know is that he wrote a lot of stuff that was just not true.

Raser Technologies: The Ugly Duckling of Alternative Energy

H. J. you say this,

"If Raser’s technologies are a scam, they’ve done a magnificent job fooling Pacific Gas & Electric, Merrill Lynch, Prudential Capital, United Technologies (UTX), the City of Anaheim, U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, just to name a few. "

With the exception of PG & E, none of the others you named are looking at raser's technology. Symetron is raser technology. The technology behind the success of the geothermal comes from UTC Power.

You focus on "net monetization", which of course is how raser is selling itself.

It is rare, if ever, that I see any type of fundamental analysis done using "net Monetization".

The insider buying is small and clearly token buys. The amount of purchased shares pales in comparison the amount Higginson disposed of about a year ago-- the method he used to mask the transaction also raises eyebrows.

When you say, “….a company that now seems all but certain to recognize significant revenues from its geothermal operating unit soon.”

I ‘m not certain what you mean by significant or soon, but 1% of the revenue from a fully operational 10MW plant, is not significant when they are racking up losses of about $6-$7 million per quarter.

Five Reasons to Buy Raser Technologies

Abraham,
Well, (pun intended) you started out using well field as the numerator and you have know switched to MW produced. You defined well field as a five –hole field.

<<<However, you have the numerator (costs), but not the denominator (number of wellfields this represents).>>&g...

<<<What we do know however, from general work in the geothermal industry, is that a 5-hole wellfield costs "approximately&qu.... $5 million.>>>


The switch, <<<$5 million is a general round number figure used per 10 mhw resource. If they were to look at doing 20mhw for example, they'd incur $10 million and if memory serves, they are going to produce 22mhw of power there>>>

There is over $20 million in expenses so far. I am not sure how many 5-hole well fields they have developed. Using your number they have developed (4 ) five-hole fields and have drilled enough holes for 40MW.
This is not the case.

Five Reasons to Buy Raser Technologies

Your write,

<<<Also, the non-reimbursed development costs you highlight are a very good point. However, you have the numerator (costs), but not the denominator (number of wellfields this represents). This could be Truckee, Thermo (multiple sites there), and some driling at other locations - we just don't know. What we do know however, from general work in the geothermal industry, is that a 5-hole wellfield costs "approximately&qu.... $5 million.>>>

I ask, how you came up with your $5 million number?

<<<In the conference call raser pointed out well development cost of $20 Million that would not be reimbursed. How do you come up with your $5 million number. Seems way off.>>>

You are suggesting that of the $20 million, only $5 million is for the Thermo property. That is beyond far fetched and reaches into ridiculous.
To further support you number you say, "

<<<What we do know however, from general work in the geothermal industry, is that a 5-hole wellfield costs "approximately&qu.... $5 million.>>>

We don't know that--support your work. That aside raser has shown their numbers. I don't think any one will buy into the argument that 75% of the line item $20 million is for projects other than thermo. Should we call raser and ask them?

The $20 million is just one example, if you listen to the CC, they point out other costs that will not be reimbursed.

Five Reasons to Buy Raser Technologies

Abraham, back to posting under this user name eh? Why not Alexandra Minsky?

Ok, comments, you section #1 you wrote

<<<...if an investor really examines what happened, this stock sale exhausts RZ's recent shelf filing. Translation: there should be no more "overhang" of the company selling stock in the immediate-term.>>...

What is there to stop them from filing another shelf offering?

#2 It is only raser that has said they have the hottest geo discovery in 25 years, They also said they would have a hand full of automotive contracts by year end--2005. They also said they expected ML funding by last February. --There are more of these.

Is there any support that the land value alone supports the current market cap? Did you just make that up? Please show your work.

#5) you say.

<<<The math, to those willing to do it, is very compelling. In a nutshell, Raser spends $5 million to drill holes on its property, and then receives $25 million in net present value dollars (it receives much more in actual dollars, but it's spread out over 10-20 years). >>>

In the conference call raser pointed out well development cost of $20 Million that would not be reimbursed. How do you come up with your $5 million number. Seems way off.
Further more there is no evidence as to what revenue and income they may receive.

Raser Technologies: A Short Squeeze in the Making

UTCP comes through with a hugely successful geothermal facility (Chena) and for 2 years no one went to the effort to look at the technology?
Possible, but do you really think that is the case. I guess you could call UTC power and ask them if no look at their technology. I doubt you will do that though

Raser Technologies: A Short Squeeze in the Making

Abraham Gaines how are you doing? Why did you change usernames and start posting under Alexandra Minskey. In your next post could you please use spell check?

One more question; you claim to be a skeptic--you then you go on to say the skeptics story is old and clearly shows lack of research.

So from this can we derive your story is old and shows lack of research?

Raser Technologies: The Long Case

My previous post showed:

<<<There is now way you can reconstruct the cash flow statement and come up with cash burn of $24 million/quarter.>&g...

It should have read $14 million/quarter.

I am sure no one believes Abe's bogus claim of $14 million cash burn per quarter. If you have any doubt about it call Raser and they will confirm without a doubt that past cash burn is nowhere near that

Raser Technologies: The Long Case

Abe buddy, you are digging a hole.

There is now way you can reconstruct the cash flow statement and come up with cash burn of $24 million/quarter. I really don't know who you are trying to sham on that. Despite your claim to be a professional, your not. It is apparent to all that you are not. That was a nice ploy though to use the condescending tone and say it is apparent to the informed investor. Bottom line--you are wrong.
But hey, walk me through it, line item by line item. There isn't that much there, it can easily be done.

I checked Bloomberg there volume coincides with the two sources I quoted.

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...

www.marketwatch.com/qu...

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Bloomberg doesn't show avg volume, however you can check volume for any day via the chart feature and it will match the other two sources.

Don't even try to go down that road that you have the "true institutional volume" that argument will not fly.

My beef with you is you post things that are just flat out not true.

Why?

Raser Technologies: The Long Case

response to Abraham:

Ok, one more for us to discuss, you said:

<<<Short argument: The company has no hot water – how will they make electricity?>>&g...

i don't think anyone has said raser has no hot water. It is pretty evident that there is a ample hot water in Nevada, Utah and other KGRA's. I'm not sure why you would even throw that out as a short argument--other than to try and paint the short arguments as baseless.
If their is a related short argument it would be that raser has not given quantifiable results such, as temp, flow, and pressure. and time. Nor has raser addressed the issue of cold water, as another contributer point out, cold water is also needed.

Hot water isn't enough. If it was, you would see UTCP Purecycle geothermal units being implemented in a number of locations

Raser Technologies: The Long Case

Response to razormd;

Actually raser was familiar with geothermal going back to 2004 when they begin their bid for Amp resources. They would have been aware of geothermal since at least the time BC came on board, as he as a past employee of Amp.

The cold water temp for the Chena geothermal plant is 39 degrees, it comes from glacier run off. Water temp that cold will be tough to find in Nevada.

Raser Technologies: The Long Case

For Abraham: You wrote
<<<1) average daily trading volume - this was an approximation and meant to signal a rough range. Further as you well know, one can look at this over various time-periods. For example, from the period 1/3/06 until the present time, the average trading volume is actually 139,000. If you look at 1/3/07 until the present, the figure is 213k. I wasn't trying to misrepresent the actual trading volume - rather, for an institutional investor - one who tends to purchase in denominations of 50-100k shares, this was meant to represent a range. As institutions, we look at the trading volume and say to ourselves, "I want to make this position x% of my fund - how many days of volume will I represent." By stating "approximately 120k", that would give an investor a rough sense.>>>

I would argue an informed investor would not look back to 2006 to calculate avg volume. Volume in 2006 has little if any significance to todays trading. That said, avg volume according you since Jan 3 07 is 213 K

Yahoo shows avg for 3 months at 304K
Marketwatch shows avg volume at 308K


Where do you get your data to support 213K