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Reven

Reven
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  • Netflix: Red Is The New Black? [View article]
    Good article, I am short Amazon from 307.1 going into earnings, as the short term upside appears limited, and a positive surprise on earnings appears unlikely. The technicals also favor the shorts right now.
    Jul 22 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Not really, considering virtually no one is short. There was less than 2% short interest outstanding when last I looked.
    Jul 21 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Excellent analysis, you should write a full article.
    Jul 20 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    May I ask the author where your stop is at? I am also short, starting today, however I have placed a tight stop loss just above 310. After hours we are down, so I'm pleased. I am looking for a pullback somewhere between 270-290.

    From a technical standpoint, this stock has been in a very wide up-channel for about a year. Each time it touches the channel it regresses to the opposite side. If this happens yet again, I expect a drop to approximately 270. But I may exit the short at 290.

    Although I am primarily a technical trader, I always enjoy reading fundamental analysis, however stocks like this typically end bull rallies according to sentiment shifts, which only technicals can help identify.
    Jul 17 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Federal Reserve Tapering Is Out Of The Question [View article]
    I would be absolutely amazed if the 10-year rate went over 3%, even if the Fed tapered tomorrow. Inflation is very low, borderline deflationary without stimulus. And loan demand will plummet as interest rates go up and the economy will tank, driving interest rates down as people exit stocks and enter bonds/cash for safety. Look to Japan, they had ultra low interest rates before their current QE program, and will likely continue to do so regardless of how much money is or isn't printed.
    Jul 8 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Forward Rates Turn Negative [View instapost]
    Not quite accurate, this happened during Lehman's collapse. I wouldn't necessarily count on this to be an immediate buy signal, but it is an indication we are nearing a bottom IMHO.
    Jul 8 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ganging Up On Gold [View article]
    Excellent article.

    I think it's fair to say that gold sniffed out the financial crisis long before it was apparent to even the people who got it right, like Kyle Bass. Gold's decline may indicate that we're in for a bit of a deflationary slump, like the one that occurred in late 2008/early 2009. Record low inflation figures support this idea, thus making real interest rates go up.

    The US has a pretty clean dirty shirt right now (relative to Europe, Japan, China, India, etc), and that's weighing on gold more than anything. This is putting a hard floor under the dollar. A falling federal deficit is also hurting gold too. Gold loves the US Government to borrow. A rapidly increasing deficit simultaneously makes investors nervous about the future while adding lots of liquidity to the system.

    Some black swan event, like a bond/currency crisis in Japan, could be a game changer for gold. A financial crisis in China could do the same for different reasons. There's still a lot of risk on the board right now, just not for the US or the dollar, and gold is the anti-dollar, that's why China and Russia love gold.
    Jun 26 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Targeting Inflation At 1%; It Just Doesn't Know It Yet [View article]
    I said average price, a corvette is not an average car, obviously. Go look it up yourself.
    Jun 26 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Targeting Inflation At 1%; It Just Doesn't Know It Yet [View article]
    Average price of a new car was about $2900 in the mid 1960's. Looks about right to me, althogpugh some items are way off.
    Jun 25 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Softening My Views On Gold [View article]
    Gold is a vote of no confidence in government and our monetary system. The higher the gold price gets, the closer desperate governments around the world get to confiscating mines or windfall profit taxing them. China doesn't even allow gold exports in their national mining sector.
    Jun 24 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons To Beware This Market Both Short And Long-Term [View article]
    I would expect confirmation of this when we see net margin debt clearly start falling off peak.
    Jun 24 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of Bonds Is Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
    The USD/YEN should catch a bid around the 89-90 level just based on the technical chart. Good buying opportunity at this level for US bonds?
    Jun 13 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Losing The Battle For A Sustainable Recovery? [View article]
    With inflation expectations near normalcy (roughly 2%), we can expect variations to have much less effect on equities. Obviously, coming off a deflationary bottom in expectations we will have the greatest rebound in equities, QE notwithstanding. I view QE as a participant in this rebound story, not the story itself. This is an important distinction.

    We need to see expectations falling dramatically out of the normal range to become concerned, specifically, I'd like to see that uptrend line broken in the graph above. Short of that, I don't expect a very strong correlation going forward. But it should be closely watched for a break in the trend.
    Jun 5 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
    So China and Russia buying gold at these prices are just suckers eh? What I find revolting about the anti-gold and goldbug crowd is the certainty with which they speak their thesis. If the financial crisis should have taught all of us anything, it is that we should all be a little humble about what might lay down the road next.

    The Fed has embarked on an extraordinary policy and even Bernanke admits this policy carries risks going forward. They are sailing in uncharted waters in the fog, and it isn't clear if they will find land or hit an iceberg.

    As for gold being money, I think it's clear the Eastern countries like India, Russia, and China, do consider it the ultimate form of money or wealth reserve asset, and that's a large percentage of the world's population. Westerners have been taught that gold is not money, and since they continue to believe that, it remains a very thinly traded market. And all thinly traded markets tend to have large swings in price.

    If it's unwise to fight the Fed and try to short equities, it is equally unwise to short gold when we have central banks around the world who are determined to beef up their gold reserves slowly but steadily over time.

    China is preparing for the worst by establishing bilateral currency swap arrangements around the world. They are moving to insulate themselves from a US Dollar crisis down the road, and we all should be following a similar strategy to protect our wealth. That means 10-15% allocation in gold is wise, not as an investment, but as wealth insurance. Let us hope we will never need it, but I'd rather have it and not need it than not have it and suddenly find myself without a single ounce.
    May 2 11:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Coca-Cola [View article]
    Blogging about money:

    Tell me then, do you have fire insurance on your house even though it's extremely unlikely it will burn down?

    Greed is irrelevant, there was more greed in apple recently than there has ever been in gold. Gold has always been a tiny fraction of the investment community's total holdings.
    May 1 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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