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hanakookie

hanakookie
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  • Russia considering price limits for domestic food producers [View news story]
    1929 really at last I thought it was 2014. Prices controls always start out as short term. And then the hoarding starts and then the prices go up. The cycle repeats itself til you know what. The oligarch are going to love it because as long as they have market access out of mother Russia then they'll be able to keep there asset base from being inflated away.
    Aug 10 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wage Inflation? [View article]
    The business sector has really been the driver of this low slow growth. I do believe in cost push inflation because when you only rely on demand pull then you eventually starve out the demand. Eventually you wind up with this marginal growth due to the nature of how real economics works. Globalism, technology, parasitic credit creation has resulted in what we see today. Yeah if you raise wages 10%. Our economy will absorb it. I really don't see what is so scary about deflation. Wait if we raise wages unemployment goes up. If we get deflation unemployment goes up. If we cut taxes unemployment goes up. If we raise taxes unemployment goes up. What this really sounds like to me is the economics of racing to zero. The greatest asset of all time human capital. There needs to be some appreciation for the real effects of wealth building to happen.
    Apr 30 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil Stocks - Time To Reassess [View article]
    It's all about west Texas. Bakken has become the little field behind eagleford and now newly wolfcamp/ sprayberry. All the hotels are filled with landmen. That's the first sign. EOG has lots of land there too. Many are saying the combined field can hold 50BBOE. YEAH THATS A BIG NUMBER. It's a stack play with pay zone as thick as 3000 ft.
    Apr 27 08:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Was That The Bottom? [View article]
    You need to follow the industry to determine where it is going. Right now it's all about land. When these shale plays come to full fruitation there is going to be a shift. Right now that's happening. As the off shore drillers are declining the land drillers are increasing. Why? Bakken, eagleford, cline, wolfcamp, sprayberry all account for 100 billion BOE. That's big numbers. Plus the amount of capital to deploy is far less and returns are realized in months not years. So keep your seadrill but land is where it is at.
    Apr 27 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Valuation Doesn't Make Sense If You Believe In The Stock [View article]
    You are delusional when it comes to fracking. The fleet of land rigs in the US are drilling for oil. There is a capability to increase nat gas production but market prices don't support it. The real issue is for most offshore drillers is they think they are the biggest game in town. Yeah they have deep pockets but this cyclical downturn can last as long as the land drillers keep putting out more oil. There is a shift in production and usually the highest levered will suffer. Think CHK when nat gas prices fell. SDRL is gambling. If they find away to develop another shale play outside the US in a major way capital and operator money will flow that way.
    Apr 10 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let Me Sway You Over [View article]
    Paulo looked at a 10K for RESI and they made 36k in rental revenue. That's it. Compared to SBY they have only 47 million to go. Out of 5000 some mortgages they posses they have 14 rentals 18 more available. So take a total of 32 homes and you get 0.63 percent generating or capable of generating revenue. SBY has over 93 percent of over 6000 homes occupied.
    To make a long story short anything related to Bill E. will get the highest valuation possible. He's the Steve jobs of real estate. Am I willing to bet against him well I did it once and came out ok. Am I willing to bet with him I don't think so.
    The model is viable and basically not founded on rentals. Basically they buy NPL's and cure them. Out off 5000 possible homes if on a yearly basis they cure 500 or ten percent then they can generate 62 million at 125k per house. If the homeowner waits 90 days from the time of modification as a scenario then they refinance and RESI gets paid. Once they cure the loan they can list the home and book it as an unrealized gain. The have 211 homes available. Numbers don't say how many are occupied though. In the 10K they had 60 million in this case.
    As for competition all companies MSR related and some REITS were asked by analyst if they were pursuing NPL's. Most replied this is a viable strategy they are executing or going to. This is a big shadow market out there. The one I follow is NRZ and they are pretty much doing the same thing so it will be no surprise if their quarterlys start to reflect this. Time will tell if it is a money maker.
    Mar 26 08:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reduce (Or Even Eliminate) Those Pesky Taxes On Mortgage REIT Dividends [View article]
    Trying to reduce tax expense through increasing fee expense. This is not new. This has been stated on SA for years and just keeps getting recycled. Is this 85% fool proof. Who knows. If you really want to reduce your tax burden from income stocks then just buy stocks that don't pay a dividend and pray it goes up. Plus if you don't pay 28% in taxes then it's just taxed at whatever is your rate.
    Feb 14 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocwen now a legal target [View news story]
    Mat it only changes for investors in OCN. You know if you rearrange the letters it spells con. Just another flag being flown. No other company can compete with CON due to their understanding that they will pay whatever it takes and then when boarded not only due the homeowners suffer but so do the actual investors. I'm keeping my fingers crossed this is only a OCN issue.
    Feb 11 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooperman discloses 6% stake in NRZ [View news story]
    I think he saw the 300 to 400 bps spread between similar companies. He'll on a yield risk basis NRZ is perceived more than all new incoming MSR REITS. Nice to see a whale in the picture now.
    Feb 10 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Turning Japanese? [View article]
    Try going to parts of the oil patch. These illegals are making $80k. So much for cheap labor. Did I mention this is only six months of work. Some illegals are making poverty level wages but come to Texas you'll see many who make more than $60k in the underground labor force.
    Feb 10 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Basic Fallacy Regarding Altisource [View article]
    From what I've researched on several other companies that are doing the same thing but not getting the valuations that RESI is getting but the flow of cash works out to be from option one modify the loan and keep the home dweller in the house. This takes three to six months. Two turn it into a rental with the existing dwellers for the deed. And last is the foreclosure which takes almost a year before they will see and cash. So when will the filings show money, dollars, moola, bread coming in. Other than that its all paper, not accrual, paper. As rates have been rising home values have been appreciating less. Are the BPO going to reflect this. Last their presentations leave a lot to explore. How many units are available for rent and what is the cost to get them ready and market them, how many are modifications and what is the modified loan amount. This is the actual value. Then how many are forward in foreclosure. But what they have is an invested amount then they just move the value up. No cash coming in. Houses and mortgages are not stocks, they are illiquid. Try selling 1000 houses in one qtr. he'll it takes almost that long just to close.
    Jan 17 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Basic Fallacy Regarding Altisource [View article]
    Paulo there is no reason to dispute that Bill has created a monster of companies. But I do tend to side with you on the value side. In real terms there are no cash flow profits because there is no revenue to speak off. I'm just waiting for the next quarterly release then I'll consider actions. This will be the first year of operations so tax time next year will be revealing. I hope there isn't a lot of roc because I don't see how they will support the divvy without it. But the statement made in December last year is correct. RESI will create shareholder value by issuing more shares at a higher pps. Nothing here is about profits cash flows or revenue. AAMC and RESI combined are the amazon of real estate but worse no revenue or earnings.
    Jan 16 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Best Idea For 2014: Newcastle Investment, An 'Aging' REIT [View article]
    Actually if you add in the nol's then then get them at 1.2x tbv. Plus from that time they have transformed into a different REIT. I don't know if they will let the senior housing stuff stick or if they will spin them off, but to hold a negative bias on a turn around story seems shallow. A lot of REITS were in the same position and they didn't survive. NCT did. Take time to read a 10Q or two. Trust me it will take time just to get through the risk factors but at least they have made it transparent. If not just put your money in all the REITS that came out after the crisis. Stellar performers who haven't been in an actual stress environment.
    Dec 25 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altisource Asset Management: Significant Mispricing [View article]
    I heard this on the AGNC board last year and look what happened they are buying back shares below book. Just because you issue shares above book doesn't mean book increases like you think. If they sell shares at 1.4 book and it only adds $.08 in value then that is just getting bigger at the expense of current shareholders. Read through the mREITs last year they all said selling shares above book added value. How much well enough to say this year most are buying back shares to keep book from falling. They key driver to book more revenue less debt. But in this case there is no revenue. At least amazon generates lots of revenue and no earnings.
    Dec 19 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Altisource Residential A House Of Cards? [View article]
    Yeah all you said and then some. So here you go.
    I wish you really read what you said. I don't see anyone questioning the model. It's then numbers. Q3 RESI made $6000 is rental income. Let me break this down for you. 3 or maybe four houses being rented. But wait they have 1500 more like this in the future. ( promise) they generated $17 million on paper from property change in status. They did not bring in that much it was a paper trade. They stated they have a significant advantage of being able to offer shares at a significantly higher price each time. To me it's not how high you do an offering for it's what kind or return you get. Plus I guess they don't know the law of marginal returns. Then you go on to mention NRF. NRF built a business through their non tradeable REITS to a viable size and then spinning it off. They proved their concept can generate cash. RESI has not. AAMC has not. Last NCT is externally managed by FIG. So I guess they should be valued at 50x too. Too many red flags and some that were repeated from the past. You said it yourself and looked what happened to those high flyers of the housing bubble days.
    Dec 17 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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