Risky Business

Ignore Apple Naysayers: Look at Its Earnings

You'd be well advised to look at volatility and correlations rather than "naysayers". It wasn't the naysayers that brought Apple down from 200 - it was near-record high volatility and a falling market. When volatility spikes, everything moves together. That's why I took my money off the table and I'm waiting for a pull back. I'll get back in below 140.

Failure of Fail Safe

The premise of asset allocation is a good starting point but there is academic evidence that it fails when you need it the most. When volatility increases, asset correlations increase, which runs counter to the purpose of asset allocation. No one complained in '99 or '06. Once volatility returns to normalcy, AA works. So I agree with you, money managers should focus on managing money and not be focused solely on collecting their fees.

Interview: Journalist Matt Taibbi

He didn't sell me on "The Great American Bubble Machine" - he took events that ALL major financial institutions were a part of and attributed them to Goldman Sachs. And he did so without definitive evidence outside of 'there was a Goldman alum nearby'. He probably could have written a nearly similar article but replaced Goldman Sachs with Harvard University or the Ivy League Universities.

Your intro needs to set the stage but it comes across as pandering - I had little interest in reading the actual interview because I've already seen your cards. And Taibbi is certainly no Michael Lewis.

Without Bonuses, Investment Banking Doesn't Work

The issue is not bonuses, the issue is "total compensation". For years, banks have told employees to views things in terms of "total compensation", the bonus aspect is more of a year end retention distribution. Recent events are quickly putting peoples focus back on base comp - that's your salary and a bonus is gravy. Bankers are mercenaries, it's not an issue of getting them, it's an issue of keeping them.

Warning: U.S. Auto Crash Ahead

In terms of GM's stock price, the current common will be 1% of the proforma GM company (if the out of court resturcturing is successful). So why in the world is it currently trading at a $1.2B market cap, which would imply a $120B proforma market cap?!? Even if it's trading as an "option", that's a hefty call premium to pay ($1.20 premium on a 0.70 strike).

Video Game Stocks: Beyond the Economic Slowdown

"So are these recent stock discounts simply a result of indiscriminate selling by hedge funds with margin calls?" It sounds like you're saying yes... but what if you look forward to a potential global recession/depression. Cash may be king but in a severe downside scenario, P/Es would adjust current levels to be more consistent with historical averages and the market would be appropriately valuing future cash flows.

Ben Stein Watch: Oct. 26, 2008

Stein is a very intelligent person that understands the fear and ignorance that drives people, which is why I can't read his dribble. There was a time when he was somewhat insightful but that feels like it was another lifetime. Now he sounds like the sophmoric know-it-all that no one should/wants to listen to.

Gamestop: Consensus Needs to Catch Up to Reality

Step back from the console and think in terms of consumer behavior in the face of an economic slowdown - GME is NOT recession proof - volumes could benefit from lower disposable consumer income but margins will suffer. Cut the margin on used games by 25% based solely on the weekly coupons (every 6-8 weeks is 25% off used games for certain systems).

While they can recoup some of the lost margin by lowering trade-in values, it's a losing proposition: lower values on trade-ins for store credit will lower purchasing power and impact volume. Trade-ins for cash don't usually generate related sales volume from rational beings.

Blockbuster and Circuit City are non-issues.

Clown Alert: Cramer, Citibank and the Atlanta Falcons

Well said