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ercastro

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  • Intel: Losing Dominance In The Server Segment? [View article]
    In my opinion, the author does not understand what a migration of HW platform in a datacenter means. By experience, I know such a migration would cost a lot, and I mean a lot, that would easily eat several thousand dollars of savings that you would have in the cost of CPUs. The energy savings will come also to the Intel platforms as we are having now in tablets, laptops and PCs.

    AMD has been defeated by Intel over and over. They even had to sell most of the assets (meaning fabs) so they could survive. The GPU will eventually be part of the CPU in most cases, as is happening now. The memory will also eventually be part of the CPUs. Most of the HW is becoming more and more part of the CPU and Intel is the leader on that field. As long as they continue leading the shrinking in CPU, there is no chance of others taking over the business.

    Does anybody remembers the Math co-processor? the memory management unit? the cache memory? the UARTs? all those extra interphases to peripherals?

    Now guess... who is going to be the first one selling CPUs (SoC) with everything, including all the memory and SSD, in one chip using one digit nm and consuming a few watts?

    by the way... here are the hints...

    - it must be able to run any OS like windows, Linux, android, iOS, solaris, etc
    - it must support virtualization (VMware, OracleVM, HyperV, etc.)
    - it must support fault tolerance (VMware FT, Stratus, NEC or similar for the nuclear plants, army, aeronautical, electric power and such)
    - it must be able to run all apps from Angry Birds to MSOffice to Oracle DB to SAP
    - it must have a loooooooooooot of fabs to make so many SoCs
    - it must be able to make them at... let's say 5 nano meters?
    - and the market, not for stocks but for IT, may expect this within.... 10 to 20 years?

    I see Samsung as the only viable competitor in the future, should they decide to go this route because they are mostly in the consumer products so far. TSM is in the fabs, so they only make what others design and buy from them. All others who use to make high end CPUs were defeated, like HP, IBM, Sun Microsystems (Oracle now). All of them got out of it better or are in the process of doing so. IBM is selling its fabs. Yes they have a great CPU, they always do, but most of datacenter at the end do not want to use their OS (is that still AIX?). You get a long term contract for buying exclusive, unique and expensive items and services... which at the end is so expensive.... yes the entry quote is competitive but once you are in.... man.... they charge you a lot of money because they know the migration back is even more expensive.... it is not only the cost of the HW/SW and engineering services, you do have to account for all that downtime of your business in the process.... it is like getting married to the tax man...

    I hope the author manages some project like this in the future, so he understand what I mean and gets all those sleepless nights of a server platform migration project.... just to save a few dollar and watts per server.... no! no! no!.... never again.

    Long INTC.... by long I mean 10 years ahead at least.... not that I own stocks which is petty obvious by now... and I do have android phones and tablets.... they are ok but still buggy toys. They are far, far away still....
    Aug 9 12:51 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft CEO Makes Stunning Statement About Surface Pro Tablets [View article]
    Mmm... I do not see the importance of such a discussion. The msft business is not a tablet or any other device. Their business is software for the corporate environment, productivity and workstations. Waste of time.... the article and the discussion....
    Feb 21 12:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Looks Like A Contrarian Short [View article]
    The author has no real position. To believe in what people does, not in what they say. Serious question to the author: Are you writing for the clicks? Please sell short or avoid writing. I'm long, meaning years and not just trading or looking for extra income. No offence...
    Aug 12 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Why I Hold What I Hold [View article]
    Long at average cost $24.81. Accumulated over since 2009. Return of 89% so far including dividends. Yield on cost 4.4% after 10% taxes on dividends. All these years, I have seen a lot of the negativism but being an IT professional there is hardly anyone better for a business or home considering all facts. Great in the datacenter, great at the office, great at home, great at mobile. I'm just missing a Windows phone because there are no models with 2 SIMs on them and I really need them in one phone. I can use any kind of software from wear operating systems, android, Unix flavors, etc. and I really prefer them windows based except for huge databases or applications that need them. MSFT is quite balanced on most of the fronts unlike IBM, HP, Oracle, Apple and the others.
    Aug 2 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen: A Good Candidate For Long-Term Investment [View article]
    P/E = 26? No comments about valuation? It is expensive... I will wait for the next correction....
    Jul 3 01:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Microsoft Move Just Not Justified [View article]
    MSFT
    Open on Jan 2, 2014 = $37.35
    Close on Aug 18, 2014 = $45.11

    This is a 20% gain. I guess the author means in the last 12 months. Then "yes", it is 42%.

    Sales went from 77b to 88b, from June to June. It is 11b more, isn't it?

    Yes, profit did not grow really.

    It does not matter!!.... nor any number above because this is the short term... I mean if you are an "investor".... if you are a trader then you may stop sleeping now for the result of 1 year... or 2.... or maybe 3.....

    I have been listening the shorts since I got MSFT for $20 a piece.... 2008.

    Now is $45 plus dividends.... it will go down for sure.... but nobody knows when. For now cash is king.... is a cash machine.
    Aug 18 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Why I Hold What I Hold [View article]
    Thanks for the tip on the new Nokia 530... I will get one in the next cycle.... I just got a new one now...
    Aug 5 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Future Of Ultra-Deepwater Industry Is Quite Bright Despite Current Weakness [View article]
    SDRL seems to be paying dividends with more debt. It will not be feasible eventually. I preferred ESV when I selected to buy one position in this industry. It offers a respectable 5%+ dividend, payout ratio <50%, manageable debt, and their fleet is also modern. Long ESV.
    Jul 3 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For January 2014 [View article]
    DTV uses debt to make repurchases. Their debt is growing just too much. T has just a lot of total debt, 188 B!!!! No wonder why both are going no where. Just imagine! T would need decades of profits just to pay back the debt. If would be better if you filter this list considering from where the funds come from, P/E and debt. T's P/E is 24?... this eliminates it from any 'buy' list.
    Jan 10 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel - Outspending And Outgunning Rivals [View article]
    Great article! Mr. Otelli's departure is really a concern. It will not be easy to find the perfect match. Any good business can be sent to hell by a fool... specially a complex one like Intc.
    Feb 20 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel - Outspending And Outgunning Rivals [View article]
    Titanium was made to destroy HP Pa-Risc. HP did bite. .... Titanium was killed by HP itself. I manage Titanium servers still and man... HP does not quote cheap or fast. They just do no want to sell. They are so arrogant. Oracle stopped support of the DB to kill HPUX, not to kill titanium which was dead since Microsoft stopped windows support on it and HP started killing itself. ... ARMH is no semiconductor company, they sell IP. So does QCOM who gets 80% of their profits from selling wireless IP. the semicons are Samsung, TSMC and Umc send others. Why to keep ourselfs comparing apples to oranges? Are all great businesses except for HP now. One just have to buy the stock at a low and lower than fair prices. Not at 50 P/E! If you buy high Mr. Irrational Market may charge you a very high invoice for not waiting. Look at Appl... is coming down to 10 P/E. I got Intel at $16 less all the dividends since then....
    Feb 20 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox Technologies - Stay Mellow Through The Growing Pains [View article]
    Actually I own Msft since a while. I have not lost any money in any of them. It really depends on at which price you buy. I am making reasonably profits so far. How are you doing with apple? Any loss lately? I may go long if goes down to 350, maybe? Time will tell in about 10 years. PC will not die. It is just a commodity now as there are many. The most efficient in manufacturing will win in the long run.
    Feb 5 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox Technologies - Stay Mellow Through The Growing Pains [View article]
    Ignore the media on Intc. No one is even close to them in the servers field. AMD is dead. I have never ever had any server with an AMD inside. In servers, there are only a few survivors like Oracle's processors from Sun Micro and the IBM's. Shipzilla ate them all. Wait for the 14nm going into all consumer's electronics in 2 or 3 years. They can be cheaper than any whenever they want, and still make money. Once they solve the power consumption problem for mobile electronics and they will start eating that cake too. In the meanwhile I am happy with my 5% dividend because I got them at $16/share. Manufacturing capabilities is one of the best factors in winning the race and INTC has the best.
    Jan 17 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox Technologies - Stay Mellow Through The Growing Pains [View article]
    Good point! I did not know that. Anyway the know how is enough for someone else to take over. INTC just did it from QLGC, they got the complete Infiniband product line from them.
    Jan 17 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox Technologies - Stay Mellow Through The Growing Pains [View article]
    Keep an on the trends then... the first big fish is on board now... well not any big fish but the father of all White Sharks... check this out...

    http://bit.ly/WluirR

    So Mellanox will be competing against CSCO, INTL and others like them... if you go long I would advise to use options instead, so that would limit your risk.

    I am long on CSCO and INTL. It will be hard for anyone to take their markets from them. I may go long on QLGC within this month... I do not short any stock really, specially tech because is quite risky and the reward does not balance well with the potential profit... any time a tech stock goes down then the sharks are ready for a take over just to get the intellectual property.
    Jan 6 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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