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dunnhaupt

dunnhaupt
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  • What Lies Behind The Plunge Of The Ruble? [View article]
    Putin claims to have studied the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he committed the same mistakes as the Soviets by building arms and neglecting the domestic economy. No wonder he achieved the same results.
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    Great article. The problem is onlt that this NOT a "typical down cycle" but one that was deliberately created by the Saudis refusing to cut down their production. Thje dilemma is that even if the Saudis stopped now, Putin would only step in and pump more.
    Dec 28, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Best Dividend Growth Buy For The Next 5 Years? [View article]
    Actually the dividend for 2015 has still not been announced, merely promised barring unforeseen circumstances. And we certainly had a few of those. So perhaps it would be a good idea if they DID announce the dividend to reassure their investors.
    Dec 28, 2014. 07:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Saudi Arabia Targeting U.S. Shales? [View article]
    It is Saudi Arabia's genie that is out of the bottle. They may be getting seriously worried that they can 't undo what they started. If they would now reduce their output, they would only sustain greater losses, while Russia would pump even harder. The Russians need dollars and will sell oil at any price. They can afford it since they are paying their workers in worthless rubles. So I wouldn't count on higher oil prices for a while.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Week Can Make In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Hi Roman, absolutely correct and logical. But unfortunately people are not always logical. The sheikhs may begin to regret what they did but they may not be able to undo it without losing a lot more business if they would suddenly stop production. Putin will be pumping even harder if they do, and he can afford to underbid anybody because he pays his workers in worthless rubles. I suspect that oil will remain cheap for some time yet.
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks Crushed: A Look At The Strong And The Weak [View article]
    I noticed that RDS.A has been selling off a number of its less profitable operations, for example in the North Sea.
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paychex: A Well-Managed Outsourcing Company With A Steady Dividend [View article]
    I like PAYX because it manages to increase its annual revenues year after year after year -- a sign of a healthy and steadily growing business. I am pleased to note that they are now offering insurance services as well.
    Long PAYX.
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan pipeline endorsed by New England trade unions [View news story]
    Thank goodness this pipeline needs no approval by the President.
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:54 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opel CEO talks profitability [View news story]
    Some of Opel's "strong headwinds" are blowing out of Russia where Opel is taking big losses even as we speak.
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Recent Move Provides A Great Contrarian Play [View article]
    The New York decision should be seen as positive. What the market obviously does not need is additional sources of gas opening up. The number of US-wide new fracking applications has also declined in recent days.
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Five oils to buy now [View news story]
    It pays for an investor to think like the oil companies do. What would you sell? What would you reduce? Which projects would you stop, or at least postpone until better days? And what operations would you keep going no matter what?

    I note that RDS.A is selling off a lot of its less productive oil fields, for example in the North Sea. The number of new fracking applications in the US has dropped. But the bottom hasn't fallen out. The same number of drivers are still pumping gas across the US, and the same number of trucks and trains (!) are using diesel.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Saudi Arabia's chief oil sheikh just reiterated that they will continue full production. And Putin may have hoped for $ 100 oil, but he'll take $ 50 if he can get it. So he is certainly not going to cut his production but pump even harder. He can afford it because he only pays his workers in worthless rubles. I wouldn't count on early price rises.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    My prediction is that Keystone XP will be approved early by both houses. The State Department of both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Kerry had repeatedly determined that there is no environmental impact and approved it. I don't believe that the President's personal approval is actually required. But Mr. Obama will no doubt pro-actively veto it, and I frankly doubt whether they have enough votes to override him.

    I can only assume that Mr. Obama must have made certain commitments to some his supporters that force him to keep vetoing Keystone XP. I noted however that in his Xmas news conference he no longer used the environmental argument, but he now claimed (incorrectly) that Keystone XP would merely be used to channel Canadian oil across the US for overseas export. The pipeline's contracts already in place with refineries tell a different story, however.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Saudi Arabia's oil sheikh just reconfirmed that they will keep up their full production. If Putin really wants lower production, all he needs to do is stop pumping. So don't count on higher oil prices any time soon.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Valero Energy Is A Great Buying Opportunity Right Now [View article]
    When the oil price drops by 30 or 40%, but the gasoline price at the pump drops only by 25%, then the profit margin of the refiners is getting bigger. A ten-year old boy can figure that out.
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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