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MrEng

MrEng
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  • Apple's Return On Equity Is Increasing, But I'd Like To See Retained Earnings Decrease [View article]
    Abba,
    I like the way you think.
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fault In Apple's Star [View article]
    Reminds me of that bone headed technician a few months ago who tried to call a double top in AAPL a couple months ago at the $100/share level. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYFEX Report: A Survey Of Suezmax Shipping Companies [View article]
    Lambros,
    Between Q1-2012 and Q1-2014 Nordic American (NAT) put 15 vessels of a 20 vessel fleet in dry dock. averaging around two per quarter. With 30 to 90 days off hire for each vessel. This likely accounts for much of the decline in fleet utilization.
    Vessel Calendar days:
    2011= 6,367 days
    2012=7,320 days
    2013= 7,300 days
    2014= 7,614 days (my estimate)
    (the Nordic a Skier began service on 16-July, 2014 and
    The Nordic Sprinter began service on 4 August 2014)

    NAT Off Hire Days:
    2011=116 days
    2012= 555 days
    2013= 971 days
    2014 my guesstimate is 900 days.

    As for the order flurry, I saw seven Suezmax orders last week. Four of those came from Alpha Tankers. The overall fleet of 445 +/- Suezmax is fairly new, so I expect scrapping to stay low (only eleven scrapped in 2014) especially if rates continue to be strong. Easy money and overcapacity at the Asian ship yards have been the bane to ship owners. I was glad to read recently of consolidation among some of the Chinese yards.
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYFEX Report: A Survey Of Suezmax Shipping Companies [View article]
    Lambros,
    Thank you once again for your thoughtful contribution. Vessel replacement cycles are one important factor to consider.
    I mentioned the case of the Hilli on J.M's recent write up on NAT. The Hilli was a 294 m. LNG carrier built in 1975, she served her owners faithfully for 39 years. Now she sits in the Singapore dock yards undergoing conversion to a Floating Storage and Regasifacation Unit (FRSU). My point is simply that a well maintained vessel can retain value much longer than a poorly maintained vessel. Also, lower bunker costs work reduce the gap between newer and older vessel cost/benefit curves. IMHO, we're not going to see a flurry of "state of the art" ECO vessel orders, in the tanker segment, with bunkers in the $300 USD/metric tonne or lower. Competent ship management matters, experienced Captains matter, experienced officers and crews matter. One can't just draw a line in the sand at 25 years. One has to get down to the individual vessel level and do inspection and observation.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    J. Thanks again for the reply. We agree in the final analysis on the most important point, NAT deserves to be a $15 to $20 stock in 2015. If NAT was an airline and ticket prices had tripled over the past six months from $12,000 per flight to $36,000 per flight, whilst concurrently, the second largest expense had fallen by 40% somebody might get the idea that business conditions had improved fundamentally for the sector.
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    Lambros,
    You are correct the 2014 20-F (not 13-F, as I incorrectly stated earlier) won't be public for another three weeks or so. I run my own numbers, based on the reported number of dry docks. I use 30 days off hire for each dry docking. During the quarter and year. The 88.2% figure is probably the result of my "best guess". I do try to be conservative in the numbers. We'll know in a few weeks, how I did. :) Nordic isn't helping to situation by not conducting a quarterly CC.
    Just read NAO is going to cut the DIV!
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    J. I liked you Dividend/cash flow model so much, I incorporated it into my Nordic spread sheets yesterday. But IMHO, opinion some of your modeling is a little to rosy.
    The 97.5% fleet utilization number you use is too high. From NAT's 13F filings, I show fleet utilization at 88.2% for 2014; 86.7% for 2013; 92.4% for 2012 and 98.2% for 2011. But perhaps my cals are flawed.
    Secondly, whilst I agree that markets tend to be "forward looking by nature" You're modeling for a 24 vessel fleet, which is fine provided that other readers understand that NAT doesn't plan to take delivery on these ships until August 2016 and January 2017.
    Thirdly, NAT has been terribly dilutive to it's long term Shareholders. frankly, would rather they buy back around $100 mill. USD in stock, than add two ships.
    Mar 16, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    Justin,
    Nobody can predict spot day rates. Even old hands like the CEO of NAT won't try. ... This being said many try. ... I suggest you study up on "Time Charter Equivalent " or TCE calculation. Understanding TCE rates will help you. But in the end, ship owners just have to learn to play the hand they are dealt.
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    J. I was thinking Euronav would have been a better example to compare NAT comps. But the EURN numbers have been harder to get at, until recently, because of the Luxembourg listing.
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    J. Great article and responses. Just a few thoughts. Golar is converting The Golar Hilli, which if I recall correctly, was commissioned in the 1970's. A well cared for ship can last a long time vs. one not getting proper maintenance. Secondly, the 40% drop in bunker costs, if it lasts, extends the life of older vessels. This allows older ships to compete more effectively with the newer ECO vessels. Thirdly, is the issue of new regulation on ballast water, It may no be practical to refit older ships to meet the new requirements.
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Offers Tremendous Potential Upside [View article]
    I concur NAO can't continue to pay out .45/qtr. +CF isn't there. $50/barrel oil, slams the brakes on, in the North Sea.
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers - Bullish In 2015 [View article]
    I agree Rob, TK has good info. Other good sources are Hellenic Shipping News, A.S. Fearnley, Clarkson's, ShippingWatch, the Annual BP statistical review and MarineTraffic to name a few others I utilize.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golar LNG teams with Rosneft to work on floating LNG production [View news story]
    They better get paid up front on this deal.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Mobileye [View article]
    Thank you Zack's for the nice write up. Looks like I was in there buying along with GS. Not bad for an old fart.
    Mar 15, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers - Bullish In 2015 [View article]
    Stock Gazer should do more research on NAT and the marine transport of crude oil. Price contango only has a secondary affect on Suezmax rates, because the contango trade occurs in the VLCC and ULCC tanker markets. Since the beginning of the year only around 50 VLCC's have been chartered for the contango trade. Most of these trades have been closed over the past month as Brent rallied in the beginning of February closing the contango spread. Also Gazer talk about NAT's dividend lacks sense. Nordic just raised the dividend January 9th from 14 cents per quarter to 22 cents. Investor's should expect Nordic's dividend will fluctuate with business conditions and available "net operating cash flow". What speaks volumes here is that management was confident enough about day rates for 2015 to bump up the dividend.
    What really matters are things like bunker costs, the supply of new ships coming online, scrapping of older vessels. Revenue per chartered mile, and auto sales in China.
    For anyone who reads this, the answer is Yes, I own a ton NAT stock. I own it for the yield, I'm being paid to wait and I'm a patient person. Capital appreciation is a secondary concern for me.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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