cfish's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/100807/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/142298-the-oil-roller-coaster-is-over?source=feed#comment-541672 541672
I go with the micro view. Talk to your local business owners and see what they say. I can tell you that the sentiment has improved greatly since Feb.

For many reasons, I think the consumer optimism is temporary. I do think inflation is coming, but not right now.]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 02:54:20 -0400
I go with the micro view. Talk to your local business owners and see what they say. I can tell you that the sentiment has improved greatly since Feb.

For many reasons, I think the consumer optimism is temporary. I do think inflation is coming, but not right now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114835-apple-s-chief-cook-takes-over-for-ailing-jobs?source=feed#comment-356142 356142 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:01:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111752-don-t-be-scammed-by-madoff-investor-sob-stories?source=feed#comment-335222 335222 2. Some of these investors are doing some sort of off-shore account to avoid taxes, so they are taking a hit but they have no way of complaining without having to explain to the IRS.
3. I feel sorry for the charities; as they are the only ones having legit reason to make public their losses. I wish the donors didn't decide to use some shady hedge fund to manage thier funding. ]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 17:48:05 -0500 2. Some of these investors are doing some sort of off-shore account to avoid taxes, so they are taking a hit but they have no way of complaining without having to explain to the IRS.
3. I feel sorry for the charities; as they are the only ones having legit reason to make public their losses. I wish the donors didn't decide to use some shady hedge fund to manage thier funding. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96819-las-vegas-real-estate-cash-is-king?source=feed#comment-262185 262185 Tue, 23 Sep 2008 04:52:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91265-oil-housing-and-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-232436 232436 Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:07:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87356-the-housing-bill-uncle-sam-is-moving-into-the-spare-bedroom?source=feed#comment-216652 216652
And what do you think determines the current market value when there isn't a market? All those models failed to do so. Banks can easily find someone to appraise them at full value of $500k and scam the tax payers money to bail them out.

If banks let houses go into foreclosure, it will lose about half of the loan balance when all said and done. Any loss smaller than that is better. Especially if they can bribe people to appraise houses at higher value.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:25:54 -0400
And what do you think determines the current market value when there isn't a market? All those models failed to do so. Banks can easily find someone to appraise them at full value of $500k and scam the tax payers money to bail them out.

If banks let houses go into foreclosure, it will lose about half of the loan balance when all said and done. Any loss smaller than that is better. Especially if they can bribe people to appraise houses at higher value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83216-u-s-housing-market-forecast-2008-2010?source=feed#comment-196064 196064
The drop not a scary reality to me; I own no home because I saw this coming. The moral hazzard of the modern system, however, is pretty scary. ]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:03:42 -0400
The drop not a scary reality to me; I own no home because I saw this coming. The moral hazzard of the modern system, however, is pretty scary. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77499-foreclosures-prove-loan-modification-isn-t-working?source=feed#comment-168966 168966 Fri, 16 May 2008 14:05:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76819-saving-the-economy-with-ira-funds?source=feed#comment-166288 166288 Mon, 12 May 2008 12:22:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76708-seeking-foreclosure-riches-what-does-it-all-mean?source=feed#comment-165817 165817
So, the dumb money is chasing real estate, foreclosure or not. I think I'll keep renting until these dumb money runs dry, thank you very much.

The house i'm renting lost over 30k in one month on zillow and it needs to lose another 100k for the rent to break even. ]]> Sun, 11 May 2008 12:46:11 -0400
So, the dumb money is chasing real estate, foreclosure or not. I think I'll keep renting until these dumb money runs dry, thank you very much.

The house i'm renting lost over 30k in one month on zillow and it needs to lose another 100k for the rent to break even. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76279-car-forecasts-24-price-drop-for-california-houses?source=feed#comment-164198 164198 Thu, 08 May 2008 12:03:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74691-fed-rate-decision-to-shield-dollar-from-horrid-housing-market?source=feed#comment-159102 159102 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 01:16:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74227-how-housing-finance-actually-works?source=feed#comment-157436 157436 Sun, 27 Apr 2008 10:54:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74249-the-market-domino-effect-staying-ahead-of-the-curve?source=feed#comment-157432 157432 Sun, 27 Apr 2008 10:46:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73006-aig-fannie-and-freddie-put-the-crunch-on-condo-mortgages?source=feed#comment-154002 154002 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:43:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72213-8-stocks-to-benefit-from-the-coming-uptrend-in-housing?source=feed#comment-150513 150513
Please try this and let us know how it goes in a couple of years.]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 13:28:59 -0400
Please try this and let us know how it goes in a couple of years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71756-signs-that-foreclosures-may-be-peaking?source=feed#comment-147982 147982 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:43:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71756-signs-that-foreclosures-may-be-peaking?source=feed#comment-147981 147981 The reason that banks will try to work them out (probably in vain) is that foreclosure process cost a lot more. The lawyer fee, cleanup, realtor/listing fee, property taxes for the duration. Typically it takes 9 months for a house to get re-listed after foreclosure. right now we have about 10 months of supply on the market. Add that together means 17months of no cash flow on top of all these costs.
If it ends up a short sale, they might very well lose over half of the money they invested. It'd be better off to work it out and take a 20% loss instead.]]> Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:40:17 -0400 The reason that banks will try to work them out (probably in vain) is that foreclosure process cost a lot more. The lawyer fee, cleanup, realtor/listing fee, property taxes for the duration. Typically it takes 9 months for a house to get re-listed after foreclosure. right now we have about 10 months of supply on the market. Add that together means 17months of no cash flow on top of all these costs.
If it ends up a short sale, they might very well lose over half of the money they invested. It'd be better off to work it out and take a 20% loss instead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71335-roubini-now-says-house-prices-to-fall-30?source=feed#comment-146634 146634
I do think people will walk once it becomes the norm. I would, if I had a house.]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 16:57:11 -0400
I do think people will walk once it becomes the norm. I would, if I had a house.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71291-ten-comments-on-housing?source=feed#comment-145971 145971
haha. ]]> Sun, 06 Apr 2008 12:42:30 -0400
haha. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70975-closer-look-at-the-arms-reset-problem?source=feed#comment-136155 136155
It takes 90 days to go through a typical foreclosure process for a home to be REO. After that, typically, banks hire someone to "clean it up" and list it with a Realtor - which then will sit on a market of over 10 months of supply to move. Most banks probably have too many foreclosures to go through all these stages. What will they do? They have many options, and I believe whatever they might do will end up making the house listed cheaper on the market.

Then the snowball starts rolling for real. More mortgages will be underwater, making more people walk away. ]]> Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:34:20 -0400
It takes 90 days to go through a typical foreclosure process for a home to be REO. After that, typically, banks hire someone to "clean it up" and list it with a Realtor - which then will sit on a market of over 10 months of supply to move. Most banks probably have too many foreclosures to go through all these stages. What will they do? They have many options, and I believe whatever they might do will end up making the house listed cheaper on the market.

Then the snowball starts rolling for real. More mortgages will be underwater, making more people walk away. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70975-closer-look-at-the-arms-reset-problem?source=feed#comment-136146 136146 Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:23:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70679-how-far-will-house-prices-fall-implications-from-the-latest-wsj-survey?source=feed#comment-135530 135530 Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:29:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70834-housing-bust-puts-the-squeeze-on-retirement-plans?source=feed#comment-135501 135501
When times get tough, speculators like to disguise themselves as poor little guys. These two apparently have jobs they hate. (Mrs Greenspan is a part time realtor!) and they will slave away forever on the account of thier stupidity and greed. ]]> Wed, 02 Apr 2008 16:46:49 -0400
When times get tough, speculators like to disguise themselves as poor little guys. These two apparently have jobs they hate. (Mrs Greenspan is a part time realtor!) and they will slave away forever on the account of thier stupidity and greed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70805-when-quants-fail?source=feed#comment-134999 134999
Having met some of the fixed income quant people at Citi, I can't say I feel bad for the bunch. ]]> Wed, 02 Apr 2008 02:57:26 -0400
Having met some of the fixed income quant people at Citi, I can't say I feel bad for the bunch. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70210-wamu-alt-a-pool-revisited?source=feed#comment-133267 133267 Fri, 28 Mar 2008 21:49:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70003-how-will-the-housing-crisis-end?source=feed#comment-132126 132126
I like the sentiment idea that somebody mentioned before: when nobody wants to buy real estate because "all it does it lose money" we are near a bottom. Right now, we are still in the "there are a lot of great deals out there" stage - not quite there yet.]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 20:22:23 -0400
I like the sentiment idea that somebody mentioned before: when nobody wants to buy real estate because "all it does it lose money" we are near a bottom. Right now, we are still in the "there are a lot of great deals out there" stage - not quite there yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68810-no-golden-parachutes-for-bear-executives?source=feed#comment-128014 128014 Tue, 18 Mar 2008 02:29:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68875-more-questions-than-answers-on-bear?source=feed#comment-127883 127883 Mon, 17 Mar 2008 18:28:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58692-don-t-expect-a-housing-bottom-until-late-2009?source=feed#comment-107664 107664
1. The worse year for reckless lending happened at around spring 2006. But prices already went soft the begining of 2006.

2. Let's say a speculator buys a house in 1Q 2006. A common teaser term is 2 years. Hence the mortgage payment resets 1Q 2008. The borrower misses payment.

3. Legally, the bank will give the borrower 3 months to catchup on the payments. Then the loan goes into default.

4. The bank has to setup auction with a third party trust and advertise it. That takes another 2-3 months. Here we are at 3Q 2008.

5. The property becomes REO, and the bank hires an agent, board up the house and sell it as-is. Currently, housing inventory is 11 months. which brings us to 3Q 2009.

So basically, my estimate is that holders of the worst loans(the Motivated Sellers) will finally buck by winter 2009 and drop prices. By then, there will be plenty to choose from.

And it might be like TraderMark describes here: No body wants a piece of real estate because "all it does it lose money." and young professionals like me will finally be able to get a home of our own.
]]> Tue, 01 Jan 2008 14:14:07 -0500
1. The worse year for reckless lending happened at around spring 2006. But prices already went soft the begining of 2006.

2. Let's say a speculator buys a house in 1Q 2006. A common teaser term is 2 years. Hence the mortgage payment resets 1Q 2008. The borrower misses payment.

3. Legally, the bank will give the borrower 3 months to catchup on the payments. Then the loan goes into default.

4. The bank has to setup auction with a third party trust and advertise it. That takes another 2-3 months. Here we are at 3Q 2008.

5. The property becomes REO, and the bank hires an agent, board up the house and sell it as-is. Currently, housing inventory is 11 months. which brings us to 3Q 2009.

So basically, my estimate is that holders of the worst loans(the Motivated Sellers) will finally buck by winter 2009 and drop prices. By then, there will be plenty to choose from.

And it might be like TraderMark describes here: No body wants a piece of real estate because "all it does it lose money." and young professionals like me will finally be able to get a home of our own.
]]>