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    • Mon Apr 7th 16:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Roubini Now Says House Prices to Fall 30%
      Walking is assuming that people actually understand that they are upside down. If most ARM borrowers have no idea that they are holding an ARM, how do you think they'd recon that they are upside down?

      I do think people will walk once it becomes the norm. I would, if I had a house.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 6th 12:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Comments on Housing
      I, too, don't think foreigners will snatch up properties here. Nobody can time the market but I do plan to start looking at the end of 2009. As of what's going to happen to abandoned houses? The sheriff's office will take it to the auction block for the tax owed on it and a reservation price of the same. At this point, I don't know if the second lien (the bank's interest) will apply. Hopefull investors are smart enough to figure out this portion, or there's going to be a lot more drama.

      haha.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 3rd 15:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Closer Look At The ARMs Reset Problem
      Good observation! I would like to add my 2c about possible prolonged effects that will drag on forever.

      It takes 90 days to go through a typical foreclosure process for a home to be REO. After that, typically, banks hire someone to "clean it up" and list it with a Realtor - which then will sit on a market of over 10 months of supply to move. Most banks probably have too many foreclosures to go through all these stages. What will they do? They have many options, and I believe whatever they might do will end up making the house listed cheaper on the market.

      Then the snowball starts rolling for real. More mortgages will be underwater, making more people walk away.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 3rd 15:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Closer Look At The ARMs Reset Problem
      I'm not big into litigation and interventions but citigroup needs to pay for trying to scam people.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Far Will House Prices Fall? Implications From the Latest WSJ Survey
      Agreed. Prices in Bay Area definitely need to fall more than half to make renting anywhere close to mortgage. Inflation is just about the only humane way to do it - sort of like killing a frog by slowing turning the heat up.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 16:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Bust Puts the Squeeze On Retirement Plans
      Cry me a river. In the same WSJ article, A couple, Mr and Mrs Greenspan, was stuck flipping two Miami Condos. They planned to retire with the proceed, living on a yacht traveling around the Caribean. They have the boat reserved under thier name. They stated they "should be living on the yacht right now" instead of retiring.

      When times get tough, speculators like to disguise themselves as poor little guys. These two apparently have jobs they hate. (Mrs Greenspan is a part time realtor!) and they will slave away forever on the account of thier stupidity and greed.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 02:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Quants Fail
      Amen. Some of the most aggresive trading strategies out there are nearly completely models. It's only been a decade since LTCM and people forgot about how dangerous blind trust in quant models can be.

      Having met some of the fixed income quant people at Citi, I can't say I feel bad for the bunch.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 21:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WaMu Alt-A Pool Revisited
      The fed is probably holding all of this now. By the way, I'm not a bond trader, but 10% loss for AAA sounds kinda oxymoron to me.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 20:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Will the Housing Crisis End?
      Nobody can time a bottom or a peak. Everytime I feel tempted to time the market, I remind myself how many geniuses failed at this task.

      I like the sentiment idea that somebody mentioned before: when nobody wants to buy real estate because "all it does it lose money" we are near a bottom. Right now, we are still in the "there are a lot of great deals out there" stage - not quite there yet.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 02:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No 'Golden Parachutes' For Bear Executives
      I bet the fed tagged this on, because otherwise it'd be publish outrage.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 18:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More Questions Than Answers on Bear
      I doubt that JPM made a good deal on this. The fact that JPM checked the books and the Bears Building valuation is 1Billion tells me that the book was way worse then we all can imagine. All JPM did was "guestimate" how much more loss it will take for assuming Bears debt.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 1st 14:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Expect a Housing Bottom Until Late 2009
      I have long determined, since early 2007, that I'll start to look around to buy a house by winter 2009. Here's what I figure:

      1. The worse year for reckless lending happened at around spring 2006. But prices already went soft the begining of 2006.

      2. Let's say a speculator buys a house in 1Q 2006. A common teaser term is 2 years. Hence the mortgage payment resets 1Q 2008. The borrower misses payment.

      3. Legally, the bank will give the borrower 3 months to catchup on the payments. Then the loan goes into default.

      4. The bank has to setup auction with a third party trust and advertise it. That takes another 2-3 months. Here we are at 3Q 2008.

      5. The property becomes REO, and the bank hires an agent, board up the house and sell it as-is. Currently, housing inventory is 11 months. which brings us to 3Q 2009.

      So basically, my estimate is that holders of the worst loans(the Motivated Sellers) will finally buck by winter 2009 and drop prices. By then, there will be plenty to choose from.

      And it might be like TraderMark describes here: No body wants a piece of real estate because "all it does it lose money." and young professionals like me will finally be able to get a home of our own.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 29th 13:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Limits iPhone Sales to Two Per Customer
      I don't think telling consumers they are limited to two units and tracable payment methods constitutes a positive consumer experience.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 15th 17:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Existing Home Sales Report Beats Expectations
      I'm not sure if it's a good idea to compare home sale of first quarter against second quarter is fair. Q107 includes winter months. For places like Chicago, it makes a lot of difference.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 9th 17:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
      Do you have a good reason to equate the extra liquidity to actual money flowing into the market?
      View article »
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