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RJL1955

RJL1955
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  • Short Position In UVXY Closed [View instapost]
    My last stop got sold out.

    Sitting in cash waiting for a new entry point.

    Jeezuz- I agree with your synopsis of SVXY trading the last few days and am willing to wait things out a little.
    Aug 20 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    A few items:

    1. Yesterday was futures expiration

    2. VIX Spot (and futures) so low right now. hard to get magnified return with much lower VIX futures

    For me, risk has increased and possible return has diminished.
    Aug 20 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Position In UVXY Closed [View instapost]
    Jeezuz:

    I had two tight trailing stops (at 50% each).

    The first one got sold at $85.90

    The next one is at $84.70

    Let's see what happens today.
    Aug 20 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Position In UVXY Closed [View instapost]
    Congrats Nathan,

    Nothing wrong with locking in some profits (I did the same on some of my position in the morning).

    However, absent the Geo-political situation, it still looks like we have room to run. Have you thought about keeping some of your position longer, but have tighter trailing stops on them to protect yourself in case the Geo-political situation came up again? This is what I have done on some of my positions.
    Aug 19 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are The Bulls Regaining Momentum? [View article]
    Their is a conference in Berlin on Sunday. Parties are Russia, Ukraine, Germany and England. Hope is for a peaceful resolution.
    Aug 15 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    Yep, one day he is sending in humanitarian aid, the next day military vehicles go into Ukraine.
    Aug 15 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    Future expiration is August 19th, so front month futures should be very close to Spot VIX at the close of Tuesday.

    Maliki stepping down does remove one small uncertainty. The better hope though is a unified Iraq and their ability to fight the insurgents (so USA does not need to get involved). Also, positive news about alot less refugees in the mountains so USA does not need to drop more aid or help them get off the mountain.

    Putin is a wildcard but it looks like he has taken a step back militarily regarding Ukraine. Hopefully the 280 truck convoy is all humanitarian aid and nothing militarily. This is what the market is counting on.

    Through in a good bond market reaction on refinancing,Europe market recovering from their lows and you end up with a great day today.
    Aug 14 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Update [View article]
    Very good analysis!!!
    Aug 13 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    The smart thing to do would be to understand the amount of risk you feel comfortable at and keeping that percentage invested in the volatility products.

    Thus, if you say 25% and have 100k, you start with a $25,000 investment. If this investment doubles over 1 year and your total account is now $125,000 then keep $31,250 in these products and move the other $18,750 profit into your core investments.

    You have two good years and you then are playing 100% with the houses money.
    Aug 9 07:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VCO 2.1 TRADING SYSTEM [View instapost]
    I liked your instablog and can agree with your thinking.

    In my humble opinion, this could be a very good trade in September or October (after we MAY have had a further correction).
    Aug 3 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VCO 2.1 TRADING SYSTEM [View instapost]
    I think it is to early to buy in, especially looking at end of QE and the time of year we are at. I would not be surprised to see the S & P reach below 1900 and maybe go to 1800.

    SVXY does not look right to buy either

    Anyway, Good Luck Rock!!!
    Aug 3 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    I agree with you that the timing is not right for SVXY.

    You have SPOT VIX higher than front month futures, you have little contango and you have a weak overall market. Through in geopolitical risks and it is either better just sitting it out or trying some UVXY
    Aug 3 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    Noah:

    I have traded this way in one of my accounts (have different accounts with different strategies- because of different level of option availability) for several years.

    I have been an investor for over 30 years and NEVER had the returns that I have had over the last few years in my lifetime.

    Yes, the 5% is a trailing stop (but I know people who will use a 10% trailing stop so that they do not sell out too early. It all depends upon your risk/ reward philosophy)
    Jul 28 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    Macro:

    You can buy and hold. I will attempt to limit my downside and buy additional when I see an upside (by the way- isn't that what YOU are doing when you post on your bolg that you will be buying VXX puts on Monday and Tuesday????)

    No one here is saying that the S & P 500 is related to SPOT Vix. The argument is S & P is related to VIX futures and there are a strong correlation between the two.

    I can't predict the vix for tomorrow, since tomorrow is a Sunday and it doesn't trade during regular business hours (I Know the CBOE has extended trading, but this is light compared to business hours).

    However, you are predicting that VXX will go down on Wednesday after GDP report (based on your buying of VXX options), so I bet you that the S & P 500 will follow the vix futures on Wednesday.
    Jul 26 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Returns Possible With These Inverse Volatility ETFs [View article]
    I totally understand and know the facts.

    I was just pointing out the 20% drops on a very small S & P drop.

    Look at XIV back in 2011 and see how it dropped 75%.
    Jul 26 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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