Seeking Alpha

# Cheesehusker

Cheesehusker
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CINF, CL, CLX, COP, CORN, CVX, F, FLO, FSLR, GIS, HGIC, HPT, IBM, INTC, JNJ, K, KMB, KO, LINE, LOW, MCD, MSFT, NUE, O, OXY, PG, RAVN, RTN, SD, SDY, SPY, TEU, TGT, VHC, VYM, WM, WMT
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• ##### Johnson & Johnson Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
@Bahamas - what makes you think I'm not long - just like D4L is?

Feel free to post your metric for "fair value" any time.
Nov 20, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Johnson & Johnson Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
For those interested in the "fair value" aspect

A simple formula for valuation is: 5 year projected EPS growth/2 + 8 X next year's estimated eps = "fair value".

Going to FinViz, we have 5 year estimate growth = 6.5% and projected earnings of \$5.85

Plug into the formula and we get: 6.5/2 +8 = 11.25 x 5.85 = \$65.81

Very much in line with D4L's number.

Reversing this - at \$95/shr, for JNJ to be fairly valued requires what 5 year eps growth rate?

95/5.85 = 16.23 - 8 = 8.23 x 2 = 16.5%
Nov 20, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Johnson & Johnson Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
@Bahamas -

Tell you what - why don't you come up with some sort of metric such as D4L uses - one backed up with hard numbers and rigourous application of methods. His numbers are there - yours are not.

IMO, saying something is "ridiculous" w/o any counterfactual is simply...silly.

Good day
Nov 20, 2013. 10:34 AM | 1 Like |Link to Comment
• ##### Johnson & Johnson Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
So then stop reading him - not overly complicated. D4L does a nice job of laying out in numerical terms what he likes, where he likes it and why.

You may not agree - that's fine - but criticism like the above is just silly in the face of D4L's well-organized and presented articles.
Nov 20, 2013. 07:58 AM | 2 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Johnson & Johnson Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
For the same reason I'm not selling - tax considerations, ability to reenter trade and loss of initial positions and yield, plus lost opportunity to accumulate more divvies during that time period.

All that means is that he's not adding.
Nov 20, 2013. 07:56 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Cisco Systems beats by \$0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
Just raise the dang dividend - best way to boost share price
Nov 13, 2013. 04:11 PM | 3 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### 10 Rules For Investing In Today's Stock Market [View article]
Not much to add other than "kudos" (yet again) and that this link has been sent to both my teenagers...

Cheers
Oct 16, 2013. 08:02 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Which Popular Dividend Growth Stocks Are 'Always' Undervalued? [View article]
Thanks for another good article - happy to be long CVX, OHI, RTN, COP and AAPL
Oct 8, 2013. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Which Popular Dividend Growth Stocks Are 'Always' Overvalued? [View article]
Interesting look and great use of tools. Only stock I have here is WM - and that b/c I got tired of simply watching it work higher. Garbage is eternal....:)
Oct 7, 2013. 08:01 AM | 1 Like |Link to Comment
• ##### 10 By 15: What Happens With Low-Yield High-DGR Stocks [View article]
Hmmm - maybe I'll add another column to my spreadsheet - I've always added drips into my yoc
Oct 2, 2013. 08:23 AM | 3 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Dividend Champions For October 2013 [View article]
Thank you good sir! Always nice to have a "graduation" - go INTC!
Oct 2, 2013. 08:00 AM | 3 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Lumber Liquidators falls after Feds storm HQ [View news story]
Probably. They did when they raided Gibson Guitars
Sep 27, 2013. 09:14 AM | 1 Like |Link to Comment
• ##### Reinvesting Dividends Vs. Saving Them And Buying On Stock Price Drops - Part II [View article]
The only problem with the CEF example, is that this is somewhat cherrypicking time frames - dripping CEFS almost certainly did far superior than waiting over the prior few years as they rallied strongly.

Which also leads to possible cherrypicking opps w/ stocks - had you held all your divvies from say 2003 and invested them at the very lows of 2008....

The results here actually don't surprise me that much - simply b/c it overrules human nature. We tend not to buy when a stock is rising - and miss out on the capital appreciation - and we're often fearful of buying when it's falling - simply b/c we think we can buy it lower still - or "something's wrong"

Very nice article - and it is nice to see confirmation of what I've intuited.
Sep 19, 2013. 05:06 PM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Investing In A Market Of Stocks, Not A Stock Market: Why Valuation Is Important [View article]
Dave - funny you bring up GE here - have on my radar for a couple reasons - not the least of which is the pending spinoff of their financial unit. Going back to roots - this is a good thing.

Plus, "hated companies" often provide excellent investments as you point out.

Nicely thoughtful way to start the day - thanks
Sep 19, 2013. 08:24 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### High DGR Dividend Growth Challengers [View article]

@Chowder - I'm with you - companies like O and CINF continue to raise their divvies - even if only marginally. I'm willing to hold onto them both with an eye toward the long term - whereas with a frozen, I'll pass until they start raising again/see a change in emphasis w/ management.
Sep 11, 2013. 08:02 AM | 2 Likes |Link to Comment