Uncle Bill

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92 Comments

    • Fri Oct 26th 10:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Two Put Options to Hedge the Market: UPS, Kohl's
      Won't your puts lose money when your longs gain money? And won't your longs lose money when your puts make money? This isn't hedging, it's putting together a series of speculative plays that have no relation to each other. You have very little chance of making money on this parlay. There's simply no other logical way to look at it.
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    • Fri Oct 26th 10:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      McDonalds: Juicing Gains With Options
      and you'll have to get in and out of the trade on the wrong side of the bid/ask spread, which will be at its maximum since there's no liquidity in that series
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    • Thu Oct 25th 08:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Diversification and Volatility: What's New?
      Terrible, just terrible article. Ridiculous way to define volatility, when there are so many other ways. What's your point, to get your name in print? And why did the editors let this one thru? No aplha here.
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    • Wed Oct 24th 11:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Too Many Zeroes For Paul Krugman
      How do you think your house got its inflated value? As much as 60% of the sales of homes last year was to adjustable-rate or no-money-down buyers. These people didn't care about price, the were just going to flip. Then add in the re-financers, people who took money out of thier homes by extending thier contracts. When these two groups combined get underwater, you'll see the price of YOUR HOUSE drop along with theirs. If your aggregate mortgage figures are used as a proxy for the total value of all homes in the US, it's easy to see how 20% -- more than $2 trillion -- will be shaved off in the next year or two. Check the Case/Shiller futures predictions, and you'll see much higher estimates of decline. As a bank analyst, you should have sell recommendations on all the banks. Do you?
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    • Thu Oct 18th 13:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thornberg Mortgage: No Dividend In Q3, But Potential Remains
      Was a trade, now it's an investment.
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    • Wed Oct 17th 11:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Future Still Bright for Thornburg After Unmerited Price Drop
      Dead, flat wrong. They sold those assets because they aren't making any money. Then they eliminated the dividend today. Houses aren't selling -- are you aware of that? This is a company that won't see '09.
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    • Wed Oct 17th 11:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      13 Extremely Oversold Consumer Stocks
      You're taking quite a chance buying these issues. The Consumer Discretionary SPYDR (XLY) is at its 90-day moving average, while the issues you suggest are about three standard deviations below that. The stocks you mentioned are among the riskiest available. CHS has an implied volatility of 49, and MW has an implied volatility of 42. By contrast, XLY carries an implied volatility of 22. These are the worst stocks in a bad group, abd they deserve thier status. Don't buy them.
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    • Wed Oct 17th 08:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Housing Bubble to Short
      That's the most ridiculous first sentence I've ever read on this website. Please explain how the "pairs trade" could possibly be profitable with "less risk"?
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    • Tue Oct 16th 11:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Writing Calls Against My China Digital TV Position
      Yesterday you said it was a great stock, and today you're selling calls on it. First of all, those calls do not carry a "huge premium." The implied volatility is incredible, which means you've selected the riskiest issue to invest in at a time when the market is about to crash. The premium is equal to the risk, according to the market. Second, implied volatility drops as stocks rise and gains as stocks fall. So if the stock crashes, your short calls will rise in value as the implied volatility increases, taking away a nice part of your profits. Finally, the profit/loss graph of the covered call, which you have created, is the same as the profit/loss graph for the short put. Is that really where you want to be, short puts -- limited upside, downside limited only by stock price -- on one of the riskiest stocks in one of the riskiest sectors in the market?
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    • Tue Oct 16th 08:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Enron, Subprime and the Derivative Disease
      Very, very nice commentary, Christopher. One question: Why do you believe the CP market will come back strong? Who are the buyers of CP, and why would they buy now with the SIV threat hanging over banks? Thanks for the effort.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 15th 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Weekly Wrap-Up
      Liar.
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    • Mon Oct 15th 11:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recommended Investment Reading: "A Demon of Our Own Design"
      Toro, I like the stuff you write, but it's funny how you insiders view things as compared with us outsiders. The whole problem with the market is leverage, and that could easily be remedied by regulation. Look at the three topics you mentioned -- structured products, LTCM and liquidity -- and you can see that leverage is what makes all three. Structured products are fine, unitl you leverage them. My dad always said, as in individual investor, "Never leverage a leveraged instrument." LTCM -- it wasn't the strategies that appalled, it was the leverage they used. And liquidlity is a measure of leverage -- the more leverage allowed, the more liquidity. Leverage is how you professionals make your money, and leverage is how we taxpayers get handed the bag.
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    • Fri Oct 12th 08:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Scoring A Windfall From Baidu Puts
      I don't beleive you.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 10th 19:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Wall Street Trip Could Trigger a Chinese Fall
      Beware the guy who makes short-term trades and extends those gains to an annual rate.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 10th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China May Implode, But Broader Impact Would Be Limited
      You're just guessing. As usual, no alpha here.
      View article »
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