Uncle Bill

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    • Tue Sep 18th 19:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      All his posts are filled with noisy rants like this. But go to his website and he's rarely wrong on a trade. The last thing he's doing is Seeking Alpha.
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    • Tue Sep 18th 16:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market's Unlikely To Take Any Fed Action Positively
      "All that has happened thus far is about some sort of problem in the US that reveals a weakness of some sort." You wrote that? For people to see?
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    • Sun Sep 16th 21:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Sectors To Consider Shorting
      One more comment. You are not hedging your $180,000 long-stock portfolio, which is heavily tech-laden, when you buy a few thousand dollars worth of puts on the home-mortgage sector. To mask the relative ineffectiveness of the "hedge," you focus on the percentage gain in the option. People should always be wary when profit/loss on options is listed in terms of the option price rather than the stock price.
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    • Sun Sep 16th 20:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Sectors To Consider Shorting
      I didn't research your past trades, I just looked at your posts.

      Here's what you said on Dec. 11: "A little over two weeks ago I placed an order to buy May 2007 puts on another mortgage lender New Century Financial (NEW) but unfortunately my order was not fulfilled. New Century Financial was mentioned in my November article, "Hedging The Economy", and is already up 44% since we added it to the model portfolio. As an alternative to New Century, I picked up the July 2007 $42.5 puts for Countrywide Financial last week and after the analyst downgrade on Friday, these puts are already up 27%." I thought you meant you missed out on New Century puts to cover the New Century stock that was up 44% in your portfolio, so you went to Countrywide puts instead. I guess you're saying you sold New Century and went short the industry by buying Countrywide puts. OK.

      So you used puts on Countrywide to hedge a tech-stock portfolio, made $1.64 on each put and tell us that "we protected our model portfolio by hedging our long positions with put options."

      My point is that your hedges had expired by the time the underlyig moved down. Your portfolio was exposed at exactly the time the mortgage sector was experiecing its worst moments.That's why I say your hedging claims are misleading. You're lucky the tech market hasn't gone down yet.
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    • Sun Sep 16th 11:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Sectors To Consider Shorting
      "We protected our model portfolio by hedging our long positions with put options" is a misleading statement. While your fundamental analysis is solid as can be, your timing and application of options leaves something to be desired.

      I looked back, and your post on Dec. 11 last year said you were buying the July 42 1/2 puts on Countrywide (CFC). That day, the stock closed at 40.48. The day you posted and said your July puts expired, the stock closed at 36.17. So your puts were worth 6.33 at expiry (42.5 - 36.17). But the options were nearly 2 points in the money when purchased, poiints you had to pay when you bought. That leaves 4.33 points, minus the premuim -- a couple points? -- you paid to hold those for six months. So you made maybe 3 points on the trade in six months. Then you were naked long the stock again in your model portfolio. Right before it tanked.

      You also said you missed out on buying protective puts in New Century (no symbol). If you made a fundamental decision to hedge, why didn't you buy those on the offer?

      It's important because of your final statement: "A half-point Fed cut may make the markets go up in response." When dealing with options, timing and application is more important than fundamentals.
      impliedrisk.blogspot.c...
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    • Fri Sep 14th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller On Timing Buys In Housing Stocks
      Wow. Buy low, sell high? You said to buy BZH, CTX, PHM, and RYL on Aug. 6, '06. Here's how you were doing until this report: BZH, down 67%; CTX, down 23%; PHM, down 49%; RYL, down 22%. Hey, you were just early. Here's how you've done since you reiterated that buy in this letter: BZH, down 39%; CTX, down 32%; PHM, down 21%; BZH, down 28%. Overall since your August report: BZH, down 80%; CTX, down 47%; PHM, down 59%; RYL, down 44%. That's simply amazing. It would be interesting if you would tell us what metrics caused you to make these decisions.
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    • Fri Sep 14th 08:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Gold Ready To Break New Cycle Highs?
      Weak effort.Of course the strength "could" continue. It also "could" not continue. Watch out for these people who recommend things once they get near all-time highs.
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    • Thu Sep 13th 16:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Some Core Themes for Portfolio Planning
      Nice article. Can you explain how Morningstar's star ratings are driven by trailing results? They've introduced options strategies based on the star ratings system, so I'm interested in how that system works. Any where you could send me to learn would be great.
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    • Thu Sep 13th 13:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market-Neutral Funds: Three Misconceptions
      Your coin-flip example shows how poorly you market-neutral people define correlation. Each coin only has two sides. That's the highest correlation possible, since I can't imagine a coin with one side only. Now what if you had a coin with, say, six sides, the correlation would be much lower. Figure it out yourself -- those types of six-sided coins are called dice.
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    • Thu Sep 13th 09:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
      Thanks for clearing that up, Philip. I appreciate the information. I look forward to checking out the Free Picks portfolio. It seems like you're printing free money. Five times your money in three months? From looking at your posted results on your website, you're rarely wrong. I just can't figure out why you would tell anybody about it. But that's just me, I guess, a natural skeptic. I stand waiting to be convinced.
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    • Wed Sep 12th 14:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
      I'm the one who asked how your posts have anything to do with options. I also asked how you make your trading decisions, as your website claims that you rarely lose money on a trade. It seems to me that you are a gunslinger, just taking a shot when you feel like it. Is there any system that you use to make trading decisions? I don't want you to give up any secrets, but you note on your website that in one month you closed 96% of your trades with a profit. Personally, I beleive your column is nothing but noise, but I'm sure others enjoy it. I'll leave you alone if I can just get a basic explanation of how you make so many profitable options trades. Thanks.
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    • Tue Sep 11th 22:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why WaMu Must Confess
      Nice call, but perhaps a little early this time. With a 43 option implied volatility, the options market sees a little more than 20-point trading range in the issue. That's about 3.4 points per standard deviation. Right now WM is 44%-- about 1 1/2 standard deviations -- below it's 90-day mean. We'd rather see the stock closer to its mean price if we're going to short. Sideways movement over the next couple months, or a rally soon, would make the short look better. Fundamentally, we're with you. impliedrisk.blogspot.c...
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    • Tue Sep 11th 22:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'Near Perfect Storm' Brewing in Housing -- WaMu
      Killenger is a flat-out liar. All of those components he cited -- "rising delinquencies, higher foreclosures, more housing inventories, increasing interest rates on many mortgages and greatly reduced availability of mortgages due to limited liquidity" -- are highly correlated and were easily forseeable. ARMS and no-money-downs accounted for nearly half the home sales over the past three years, all while Fed funds rates were rising. Any bank executive could see it was an anomaly that couldn't last. All that money he makes, and he can't even take the blame. Disgusting. We hope the stock rises the next couple months so we can short the heck out it in December.
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    • Tue Sep 11th 14:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does Hedging Make You A Chicken?
      Yes, an interesting article. But you should hedge with options rather than futures. Selling call options takes away the need to buy your hedge back before it expires. Also, time works in your favor. If the house price remained the same, you would make money from selling premium. A true hedge reliquishes some upside return. Not enough hedge? Sell the call and buy the put, at the money. The put will cost a little more than the call, but you'll be protected from that big hit. It's a lot cheaper than your futures hedge. CME offers options on the Case/Shiller futures. That should have been your story. Nobody hedges a long stock position with futures. Why should you do it with your home? impliedrisk.blogspot.c...
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    • Mon Sep 10th 10:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Outlook for The Market, The Fed and Housing
      First, "I think the market is probably higher by years end and should see positive returns in 2008." Then, "If the Fed eases now while the economy is not in trouble, I think we could see a very good stock market like the 1990s." Again: "I own a basket of home building stocks...I still think they are very cheap and will perform well over the next several years." Finally: "I am not making forecasts of these things." I've never seen someone disclaim thier own comments in the same post. Nice work.You're long and wrong.
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