Uncle Bill

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    • Mon Sep 10th 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Risk Perception Has Changed - Weakness Ahead
      You should let David Lentz write your column. He told you all this last time you posted, in your comments section. This flip flopping when you're wrong really doesn't do any of us any good, Joey. And I think it's called a Putz window, named after anyone who would actually commit money to such a ridiculous proposition.
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    • Sun Sep 9th 18:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Reasons For Uncertainty on The Fed
      I don't understand. "At the present time, my view on the FOMC is cloudy." You give us a bunch of reasons why it's cloudy. Then later, "to me, it indicates the Fed will cut rates significantly through 2008." Sounds like you've made up your mind by the end of your article.
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    • Sat Sep 8th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Remaining A True Believer in Gold and Precious Metals Stocks
      You're trying to buy-and-hold in the most volatile sector of the market. The option implied volatility on the gold indexes indicates the market wouldn't be surprised to see the indexes up or down by one third over a year's period. More volatile than biotechs, oil service, internets, you name it. To invest in this area without hedging your risk is insane. Hedgeing means selling a large portion of your investment when it rises 30%. Buy when the index is more than one standard deviation below its mean price on a 90-day basis, and sell when it gets more than two standard deviations above its 90-day mean. You'll make a lot more money than you will waiting for than big move. And you'll be taking a lot less risk. http:/impliedrisk.blog...
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    • Sat Sep 8th 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Momentum in Precious Metals, While Homebuilders and Retail Lag
      Thanks for the info, Nick. I was sleeping under a rock all week and didn't know what happened. You're the best.
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    • Fri Sep 7th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold: A Safe Place to Hide?
      Kicker, you gotta keep up with the news. "de-couple from the US consumer"? That's not a factor that moves markets. Check out hf-implode, they have a great current news section. The one you'll want to look at today: "Is China Quietly Dumping US Treasuries?" from the UK Telegraph. That is news that moves markets. Why do you think XAU made such great runs earlier this week? It isn't selling off today either. Another standard deviation or so, we've profited from 130 to 160, and we're out. We've done this round trip twice this year. Lots of other sectors act the same way, not just gold. The option market does a great job of estimating trading ranges -- it's called implied volatility.
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    • Fri Sep 7th 09:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold: A Safe Place to Hide?
      Lower dollar, higher gold. The obverse of inflation is a weak dollar; both limit the purchasing power of the dollar. The Fed and the treasury secretary say they support a strong dollar, but they don't support it. Finally, they love gold in China. As the Chinese sell US treasuries, they'll buy gold. The XAU hit the 120s on intraday trading last month, which placed it more than two standard deviations below its mean price on a 90-day basis. That was the buy. Today, XAU is one standard deviation above its 90-day mean price. Last time the index reached two standard deviations above its mean on a 90-day basis, at around 150, it plunged along with the market. Very high correlation recently, and now it's rallying with the market again. Not much of a hedge against the stock market, really. Lots of hedge-fund speculators, we conclude. Ride it, then sell it. impliedrisk.blogspot.c....
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    • Wed Sep 5th 21:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday AM Outlook
      What in the world does what you wrote have to do with options? None of it is news, all of it is noise. You make an incredible amount of trades, according to your website. You rarely seem to be wrong, according to your website. Can you tell us what type of strategy you pursue? How do you make your picks? How do you do it? Seems hard to believe, from what we read here.
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    • Mon Sep 3rd 12:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      August Was a Bad Month - But Keep It In Perspective
      What premise? The "give me your money" premise? The market has done nothing but go up for four years, and now all the risk arbitrage that has allowed this to happen is being unwound. The dollar is at an all-time low, debt ratio is at an all-time high. There are no bids for existing homes. These are facts, not emotions. Go soothe your clients psyches somewhere else.
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    • Mon Sep 3rd 12:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Long-Term Investors Shouldn't Heed Confused Housing Data
      Did a little research, and it seems you're a director and investor in LendingTree, one of these newfangled internet mortgage lenders. Now we really know why you want us to throw out all the data. Nice try.
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    • Mon Sep 3rd 12:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Long-Term Investors Shouldn't Heed Confused Housing Data
      Let's see, on the one hand you have an Ivy League professor who is one of the acknowledged experts in both housing and volatility. On the other hand, you have a government agency. One source has written numerous books on the subject, and is brilliant. The other source is a bunch of government pencil pushers. One has a name, the other has a title. And you don't know who to listen to, so you ignore then both? From your website: "Like gravity which inevitably pulls us back to earth, mean reversion pulls returns toward long-term averages." Returns have been way above average for a long time. Is it mean reversion time or time to stay the course?
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    • Fri Aug 31st 14:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Historical Perspective on Recent Bear Markets
      Here's what you'll hear at the bottom of all these charts: "I'll never own stocks again." Be Quiet and Listen: Do you hear any of that now?
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    • Fri Aug 31st 14:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Miracle: Bush To Part The Bankrupt Sea
      Good comment, Al Rob. How could the editors let this bit of nothing on the site? Tuesday would have been a good day to establish buy/writes on those stocks you mentioned. Where were you then? Check me at impliedrisk.blogspot.c... for timely, useful commentary. Plus, you were wrong. Countrywide (CFC) barely budged. Too late too sell any high-cost premium. Thanks.
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    • Fri Aug 31st 07:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Speculator Defaults Aggravating Housing Crisis
      Good reporting, until your final comment. Why would you say such a thing with no attribution? Is that your own idea, or did someone tell you that? What a ridiculous idea -- that a Fed rate-cut would help the speculators, so therefore Bernanke won't cut. There are a lot more important considerations here than whether flippers get punished. It's not his job to punish the flippers, it's the market's.
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    • Wed Aug 29th 08:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Too Late To Short The Financial Sector
      I notice that, in hindsight, you say there were two significant opportunities to short the financials. Why are you telling us now? Why didn't you post and tell us then? Right now, you say not to short the sector. Should we go long? You claim the group will outperform. Shouldn't that be the headline? Come on, take a stand.
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    • Wed Aug 29th 08:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hansen Natural: Cramer Can't Get His Story Straight
      What are you talking about, Jack K? The only way people will be educated by watching Cramer is by not doing what he does. All he does is attach cliches to his guesses. The approach he employs is the most unsuccessful tack you can take -- short-term trading on known news. I couldn't stop laughing at this article. Great job, David. This article is what blogs are all about.
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