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  • Axion Power Concentrator 406: October 25, 2015  [View instapost]
    Just stopped by. Over a year ago this blog was looking very hard at the BMW X5 eDrive as it was likely that if BMW adopted the PbC that it would be the vehicle. There had been some schematics found by Negoslavbg from a few years prior that included some pictures from a media drive in the Northeast near BMWs US offices and the design at that time could look like the PbC. At about the time of the brutal financing/uplisting BMW had been showing off this vehicle in Paris and previously at other shows originally stating at 2014 launch then a 2015 Model Year launch and then nothing.

    Well, yesterday they have finally announced the launch of it. You can go to BMW and put in your specs and order one for delivery in January. This summer they confirmed that it was a LiOn pack but reduced many of the original specs such as range and price.

    I feel more confident than ever that this was going to be the vehicle that would have had the PbC last year but something happened. I'd love to know why BMW walked - was it management or the battery itself.
    Nov 24, 2015. 10:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 406: October 25, 2015  [View instapost]
    stopped in to see what was going on as I still had an alert on my phone for large increase/decreases.

    I'm convinced that some of those daytraders are Maxim employees.

    Did anyone get contacted by Maxim in the last 3-12 days around the time this deal got funded? I had funded a small account with them before the last financing to take advantage of the language and I offset a small portion of my losses but I ultimately closed and transferred my account away from them.

    I got a call from a junior guy from there who was pitching some other deals of their and this was 2 days before the Axion deal. I had no interest but because there was no news on Axion's financing I asked if Maxim knew anything was looking for anybody and he was unaware. I wonder if Maxim took the entire deal and used the twitterati to pump and sell.
    Nov 18, 2015. 06:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes: Expect A Beat-And-Raise Quarter  [View article]
    I just read the call. They expect November 2015 to be more than October 2015. So even if November was flat to this October they are at 264 over (165ish - from memory) or 60+%.

    If November was equal to October at 264 which is up 60% YOY for November they would have to sell 339 in December to hit the midpoint of their guidance. That is up 38% YOY.

    If they hit the midpoint of their guidance they will have 4 quarters of 38.4%, 28.9%, 67.7%, and 33.0% for a combined total of 41.1%. Margins, everything else looks good.

    My only concern is this slowdown in October. They didn't mention labor problems on the call but others have and if they hit the low end of the mark in Nov/December I'm going to be wary of margins.

    I don't get why the stock ended down today.
    Nov 4, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes: Expect A Beat-And-Raise Quarter  [View article]
    I came back here to congratulate you on you estimate.

    I agree with you on any coverage with regards to the October closing data. Last year October of 241 was 37% of the quarterly volume. Using the October sales data of 264 and the same 37% would equate to only a closing total of 715 homes. Yet they just guided a increase to 792-942 homes. Last year November was by far their slowest month. To hit the guidance they need to close on 264-339 units per month in November and December.
    Nov 4, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Continues To Be Irrationally Priced For Bankruptcy  [View article]
    I'm going to disagree with you here. Atleast with mortgages in the GTA and Vancouver area. Most homebuyers in Canada are buying 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs as they do not have 30 years mortgages there.

    There is this strange belief that there is not mortgage fraud or any of the nefarious things going on in Canada yet you can look at Home Capital group announcing they are cutting ties with 45 brokers for bad paper. The same HCG sells their 90% LTV products to Genworth.

    I'm not sure what the real story is in Australia and Canada but why not stress test it if your assumption is that balance sheet is solid. (And yes I understand how PMI is different between the US and Canada).
    Nov 2, 2015. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Continues To Be Irrationally Priced For Bankruptcy  [View article]
    Thanks. Thanks for the idea. That should be a good starting point for me to research.
    Oct 30, 2015. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Continues To Be Irrationally Priced For Bankruptcy  [View article]
    Much of the discussion is on the LTC marketplace which I appreciate. I am more concerned about the mortgage divisions (specifically Canada and to a lesser extent Australia). Reading the authors article from a few months past where he explains how when the US Housing bubble burst and that the US MI went bust, almost bust but GNW did fine is great for the US. However, many metrics show that portions of the Canadian market may be more bubblicious than the largest bubbles in the US back in '06-'08.

    Looking at the sales amounts for the mortgage division -(they break it out between flow and bulk) I still struggle. Does anybody have a good primer on how to value these businesses. I'd like to try and stress test these dvisions and see what a 10, 20, 30, 50% drop in home values would do the balance sheet.

    I agree with the author that you need to focus on the downside but I don't see where that has been done.
    Oct 30, 2015. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 405: September 26, 2015  [View instapost]
    Yep. Very interesting to say the least. No CFO so who is going to come up with a plan C or D or whatever.

    Looks like BK is likely. I wonder what the technology will sell for in BK. I've done some reading on buying IP in Bankruptcy and one academic article stated that due to the firesale and opaque nature of bankruptcy that IP is usually sold at a 40% discount to the true market value.

    I'd love to be part of a consortium of a few on here but frankly I don't have the money to throw at another pet project. I'll continue to watch the story and I hope that it goes to someone who has the money to really do something with it and determine if its vaporware or not.
    Oct 6, 2015. 06:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 404: September 11, 2015  [View instapost]
    They list 5 examples of Advanced Lead Batteries:

    Kaheawa Wind Project II - Xtreme Power (Younicos). Note this is a project in Maui and not the one on the Oahu that had a fire in 2012 (also Xtreme Power) and was not replaced with battery storage instead. Then instead went with D-VAR, or dynamic volt-amp reactive technology, from AMSC for continuous voltage regulation and not a battery technology. This will help them as part of a bigger system but once the grid gets to be more than 50% renewables they will have to figure out storage solutions. My guess is that they are going to start pushing storage with all future solar projects.

    Other projects listed:
    Duke Energy / Notrees - Most interesting. This project went live in 2012 with Xtreme Energy batteries and in 2016 is shifting to Lithium.

    GridSolar Boothbay Pilot Project: BESS - C&D technologies (battery)

    I couldn't find the battery used in the two japanses projects.
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 404: September 11, 2015  [View instapost]
    I really, really hope so. I check into this blog about once a week now and I was expecting to see actual discussion of what the VW disaster means for the micro hybrid market and potentially Axion.

    My goal with Axion was always a partner. I got suckered in by the idea that they were introduced to one or two partners from (presumably BMW) and that is when I loaded my investment from small to big and then doubled down right before the uplisting due to greed. I still cannot figure out what Axion staff does during the day. I've called the phone trees and I honestly get no answers to any number/extension I try. I just want to hear a live breathing human on the other side. Nope.

    We should be overjoyed by the VW news but instead nothing because we cannot know if Axion can get a second swing. I think its doubtful. Sadly.
    Sep 24, 2015. 01:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 404: September 11, 2015  [View instapost]
    Reading this I thought of BMW and the PbC. It has to have others really questioning what their plans are.

    What I find surprising is the potential size of the US fine ($37,500 per car). I see VW is going to take an $7B charge in this quarter.

    I've sold out of Axion and have no desire to reenter at any price until I see change. Nothing seems to have changed yet.
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 402: August 1, 2015  [View instapost]
    An aside - I was on a flight yesterday and ended up next to a guy who worked in the automotible sector. The general consensus in the industry is that the first self-driving cars will be introduced in 8-10 years. Frankly, that was considerably less than I was expecting. He felt that someone (non traditional car industry participant) will be first to market with a small intercity car and will basically put them on the street and dare the regulators to turn it down, using the examples of Uber where they bully local governments to change the laws. He thinks that the gov't will allow this otherwise companies will move the tech to SE Asia. Gov't in response will set laws at use only under 35 mph to get people used to it, issues fixed, etc. Highway driving will be 5-10 years beyond that.

    Biggest issues is maintenance of sensors, cameras and weather. For example GOOG does not take the self driving cars out in rain on public streets and has not taken it into snow covered roads as the system is not smart enough when it can't see the marked roads. I predict it will be 15 years before they hit the roads.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2)  [View instapost]
    Last financial statement said there was 7M shares issued with a float of 2.2M. In the last 4 days 10% of that float traded.

    I called the # and left a message. Is this just a fraud?
    Jul 30, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 400: June 22, 2015  [View instapost]
    I know this is a common refrain that China will steal IP however there is some work being done that the Chinese gov't will enforce patent issues for items that Chinese companies want to export beyond their borders.

    At my current employer we are dealing with the remnants of failed JV. The Chinese company before the JV had 90% of the process complete but couldn't meet the quality standards. Due to the type of product shipping was a major cost and this is a fairly low margin item so a sourcing agreement in China was felt it was needed as it was a large and growing market for us. We taught the Chinese JV partner how to improve the product, how to QC the good and how to maintain and sell. We also gave them access to our distribution channel. Our sales slowly then quickly died to a fraction of before. Turned out they ran the line and private labeled this good when our rep was not in the building and sold below us by 10%.

    We broke off the agreement but complained legally to the gov't. Surprisingly the Chinese gov't didn't stop them from selling within the mainland but will not let them export this. The gov't is becoming more aware and knows that live in a global world they need to enforce patents/trademarks. Its still a wild world in China but some of the concerns about them selling it out of country are lessened.

    My understanding is that our experience is fairly consistent with other recent issues in the legalities in China per talking with our lawyers over there and here. Maybe not the wild west but more 1910.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015  [View instapost]
    An interesting article about trying to lower battery costs - not by materials but by manufacturing methods. I'm a skeptic but I'll watch his company going forward.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment