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Davidoff

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  • RIM (RIMM -21.2%) has added to its losses, as worries about the impact of BB10's services pricing mount. Goldman, which upgraded RIM to Buy last month (I, II), suggests investors are overreacting, since BB7 won't be affected. But Deutsche is less sanguine, forecasting RIM's service revenue will fall 20% each of the next 2 years. Ditto CLSA, which is "downgrading" shares to Sell from Underperform. "RIMM’s business model is being challenged by operators that are unwilling to both subsidize devices aggressively and hand over a slice of their data revenue." (transcript[View news story]
    It's rediculous. You "bet" on one single product - BB10. We didn't see it in definitive commercial version, we didn't see any features or apps, we didn't see any new Blackberry devices that might run the new OS, we don't know when BB10 "might" eventually get released and still, you speculate on rather it's going to be a success or not and how much RIMM shares might worth...

    You should play in casino rather than investing on market.
    Dec 21 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion (RIMM): FQ3 EPS of -$0.22 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $2.73B (-47% Y/Y) beats by $70M. 6.9M BlackBerrys shipped, 255K PlayBooks. BlackBerry subs fell by 1M Q/Q to 79M. Shares halted. (PR[View news story]
    RIMM looses 22 cent a share, they sell only 6,9m Blackberry's and 255k playbooks worldwide and shares rise? There is no any evidence of a turnaround except a hypothetical success of BB10, that might be released only by February and they keep rallying. That is getting rediculous!
    Dec 20 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lessons I Learned In 2012 [View article]
    I would be scared of bankruptcy if they weren't making $7B in profit a year and were loosing cash. I would have been standing on market's side in bashing HP. Their problem is poor management and lower than average margins. The business is certainly not in danger. While market's reception on the eventual split will certainly be extremely positive.
    Dec 20 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lessons I Learned In 2012 [View article]
    HPQ must have been the worst trade ever for me. Got long in the worst timeframe. Bought some at $24,6 cause the stock seemed cheap with these fundamentals, but it went dramatically down. Wanted to buy shares at $18, but it seems that I was too late and the stock went down to $14. In these cases you always wonder if you were lucky or not... On one hand you lost even more cash on shares that you hold, on the other hand you didn't loose even more. So than I bought even more shares at $14,60 to recover my loses. The damn stock went down right after their phenomenal Autonomy writedown and bought again at $11,8. So now I have an average price of $15,2 and hell knows where this devilish stock is going...

    Nevertheless I feel that I'll have to keep it for a while. It might take several years, but this stock is going to outperform the market once the investors and analysts will stop overreacting and move to another victim.
    Dec 20 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) has talked with Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Compal about developing a 10" Windows RT tablet, claims sometimes-accurate Digitimes, which adds the device could launch at February's Mobile World Congress. Nokia tablet rumors were rife earlier this year. Early sales of Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface RT have been weak, though its distribution, pricing, and ergonomics could have something to do with that. Separately, Bloomberg reports Microsoft has been drawing closer to HTC[View news story]
    It would be a terrible mistake to release a Nokia RT tablet. Just to hope for a success, they absolutely need to produce Windows 8 tablet. No one needs a Nokia "Surface" with a trendy design, what people expect is to get the latest OS, not just a design. I just hope that it will at least have much more exhausted functions than iPad and a USB port.
    Dec 19 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia's (NOK) Phone Division Is At Risk [View instapost]
    Eld,

    Excellent article! The thing is, Nokia has too many different phones in production to fit to the customer's preferences in different parts of the globe. They still sell phones with numeric keyboards and even though they see a huge success in emerging markets, Nokia barely earns money on selling them. To increase their margins, they will not only have to fire a lot of worker, but they will also have to make a lot of adjustments in their product lines. It will take a lot of time, but I think that they will be able to make it by the end of 2013. It will also depend of their new releases and of the demand for Lumias, how will it evolve in time. Nevertheless Nokia doesn't start out of scratch and it's much easier to adjust production in existing facilities rather than to build new ones.

    Regarding the share price, NOK is traded extremely low so investor's expectations are not as delusional as those, that Apple is facing right now. So I suppose that even if they will burn some cash, as long as the sales are correct or even maybe exceeding the expectations, NOK won't face this summer's lows anymore. So I don't think that I'll make any moves with NOK before seeing what the company becomes in 2014. The positive side is that psychologically people invest much easier in cheap stocks rather than in whales like AAPL, IBM or AMZN. They get their cash easier out of pocket and hope for a miracle, so NOK can soar very fast if many longs notice that the company is outperforming and jump in.

    If you regard the stock from the perspective of the demand, it has a huge upside potential, even though the company is suffering and th management didn't get any better.
    Dec 19 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Eld,

    You seem to forget that market isn't rational on the short term (6 months - 1 year), even though the classic economical theory says the exact opposite. There are some people who gamble, others who are centered on fundamentals and figures, I tend to do both. Every year, I keep 20-30% of my personal portfolio for outsiders, like NOK or HPQ. And guess what, outsiders make over 60% of my full year market profits year after year.

    Market seems to always exaggerate the situation and that's how you make easy profits. Last year people were making noise about banks and I made nice profits on BAC, C, JPM and GS. This year it's tech stocks. For example, back in September I bought RIMM for $6,4 and sold it after a huge rally for $11,6, simply because the fundamentals wasn't following the rally, it was all about BB10 speculation. Well, I could already earn $2,5 more, while nothing new happened during last week. Is it rational? Nope.

    Take Apple stocks. Is it rational that they lost almost $200? The figures are excellent, the market sentiment seemed great and suddenly there was a huge slump. Who could forecast that? Certainly not the guy analyzing his figures.

    As my boss once said, it's less risky to invest in a terrible beaten penny stock than in stocks like Apple with apparently excellent fundamentals and that everyone is chasing... Last month he invested on the Greek market a week before a 30% rally. We almost thought that he got crazy and that we'd need to seek for another job, but the old man made it again... Sometimes even when you analyze the figures, you see only what you want to see. On the other hand, sometimes you just don't have the guts to take a risk. But saying that figures are telling you everything isn't 100% true.
    Dec 16 11:22 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    When I searched for the iPhone 4s over a year ago in Europe, every store got 5-10 iPhones per week and it was constantly sold out. Nevertheless it was sold by millions allover the world. Same thing with iPhone 5, even though it's clear that the demand in Europe for the iPhone 5's went down. There are no more waiting time on official sites for over a month, which is really shocking.

    During the holiday season, Nokia might make a home run if they sell 10-30 devices per store every 3 days! To be honest, it seems way too much for me... I'm a little bit less optimistic on the long term. People tend to rush on the new devices upon the release and the sales go down dramatically in the following months. Anther Apple consequence...
    Dec 16 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Source? Honestly, it's the first time I hear that... Does it include the new Lumias?
    Dec 16 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Eld,

    No one has the actual figures and no one knows how Apple counts its own Apps. There are many Apps that are simultaneously available on iPhone and iPad. Is it considered as being 1 App or 2 Apps? No one can answer. But when you launch a search on AppStore on an iPad you generally get the following proportion - 600 Apps for iPad and 1k Apps for iPhone. You can launch an iPhone App on iPad with a restricted resolution, but you don't even get the iPad Apps results on iPhone.

    Anyhow, searching Apps on AppStore isn't like launching a search on Google, you can't get the total number of results. So basically what we get is what Apple wants us to see.
    Dec 16 06:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: The WSJ reports Apple is testing several TV designs with the help of Foxconn (HNHAF.PK) and Sharp (SHCAY.PK). "It isn't a formal project yet. It is still in the early stage of testing," says one source. Reports of an Apple TV set project are nothing new, and Tim Cook's remarks last week bolstered speculation. It still looks as if Apple's biggest challenge won't be building a quality set, but striking necessary deals with content owners and pay-TV providers bent on maintaining the status quo. [View news story]
    I just don't believe it's going to be a succes. There is always a possibility that Apple will revolutionize the TV as it did with MP3's and tablets, but I doubt it. No one has as breed TV content as the US. The European average number of channels goes arroing 50, so yes, some people still watch TV, but most people I know just have it to launch a DVD from once in a while.

    There is an extremely high content pressure because of the national TV companies. For instance, iTV in Europe is just a mess, you can barely watch YouTube on it. European governments don't let companies like Apple put their own breeder content, because they don't want to let them use an unfair concurrence against national TV companies who pay their taxes in the countries they actually work in. There is no point of releasing an Apple TV if it's going to run under traditional TV distributors, a 500€ 41" 3D TV is largely enough for that!

    The other issue is the price. Generally speaking, a Sony, Philips or Samsung that is being sold for €4500 today, is going to be on sale for barely €800 in less than a year. The world demand for TV's is just way too low for the supply, so prices shrink. Philips for instance is planning to go out of TV business by 2014. On the other hand, the premium market won't let Apple a lot of space. If you look at Apple's desk screen that is sold at €999 you can easily imagine that their TV will cost at least €3000. At this price I would rather buy a Bang&Olufsen or a Loewe (both are made in Germany) that are much more rare and exclusive than high scale Chinese Apple products.

    So yes, maybe in the US an Apple TV is a good idea, but in the rest of the world people are much less addicted to the TV's and if you check the latest figures, most of young Europeans don't even buy TV's anymore. A PC is enough for them to watch their films and TV shows on the Internet without any restrictions. While when they grow up and fund a family, they are much more interested in sparing money rather than buying a fancy TV.
    Dec 12 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P (HPQ) +0.7% AH after COO William Veghte discloses he bought 23K shares on Dec. 3-4 at prices of $12.93 and $13.03. Clobbered thanks to its poor FQ1 guidance and the Autonomy debacle, H-P has quietly rallied 18% from its Nov. 20 close of $11.70, as bargain hunters are lured by a low valuation (4.2x FY13E EPS). Though with H-P heavily exposed to two declining industries (PCs and printers) and dealing with a slew of internal problems, there are reasons why multiples have compressed so much. [View news story]
    I think that HP management must wake up of their outdated illusions. We are facing a dramatical transformation of consumption habits. PC share keeps falling while tablets are gaining share quarter after quarter. Unfortunately HP can't compete on the tablets market. It's very unlikely that they would become as successful as Apple or Samsung in foreseeable future. They are still face to face with Lenovo who has the lowest margins among world's top 5 PC makers, by the way. So maybe it's the best moment to sell the PC division as long as it's still worthy, cause as soon as Lenovo will be officially unreachable for HP, the PC division won't be sellable for its actual price anymore.
    Dec 6 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Subscribers at China Mobile (CHL), the country's largest cellular operator, will be able to order Nokia's (NOK) Windows 8 based Lumia 920T by the end of the month for 4,599 yuan ($739) without a contract. That's a bit later than the November launch that was initially envisaged, although it still beats Apple to the punch, as China Mobile doesn't yet carry an iPhone. Nokia jumps 6% in Helsinki. (previous[View news story]
    Eld,

    I suppose you already forgot the riot in the Chinese Apple Store during the iPhone 4s launch. In countries like China, India, Russia or Brazil people have a completly different vision of their consumption, it's quiet the opposite of the Western culture. They prefer to buy a fancy phone rather than to spare some cash for the future. It might be a shock for you, but some people take a mortgage to buy a phone. So I really don't worry about the price. My only consern is the marketing campaign, cause at this price it should be very robust. Nevertheless, Nokia's image is still extremely positive in these countries!
    Dec 5 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The End Justifies The Means [View article]
    Bedrock,

    Third world countries and emerging markets are synonyms. The "third world country" term is an older way to say emerging market. Maybe in the US this term began to have a pejorative sense, but it isn't the case in Europe.

    I listened very carefully and Bolds are the most sold Blacberry's only in the US and Canada.

    As you say, "segments" of population are rich in these countries. You can't measure a market by seeing only roughly 5% of people, who are millionaires, while the main population lives in slums with $50 a month. Their economical structure is still centered on the primary and secondary sectors. Even tough I'm a capitalist, I can't tolerate seeing a state showing an artificial growth on depends of 50% of its own people. If they would try to offer the Western conditions of life to all of their citizens, these countries would simply implode. So with so many flagrant social injustices and such an unstable economic situation, I consider Venezuela, South Africa, Thailand and in some aspects Brazil and India, as being Third World Countries. As an economist, I prefer to see the big picture rather than to consider a country only by the nomber of its billionaires.
    Dec 3 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The End Justifies The Means [View article]
    Mr Kesarios,

    I agree with you that there are people who like Blackberry's and who would buy the BB10. They might even wait for the BB10 release. 10-20% range seems very conservative. I've been using Blackberry Bold till the first iPhone. Now I use a Lumia 920 as my personal phone and get a BB from my company as a working phone and I really dislike it. It's clearly behind the concurrence and it seems very old. I'm not sure that a company with such an outdated device would be able to make something exceptional. We'll wait and see. But 30 millions of high-end phones sold would be a huge success for Blackberry.
    Dec 2 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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