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Davidoff

Davidoff
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  • Apple Short Interest Jumps 44% [View article]
    I'm not sure that AAPL really delivered what investors expected. Consumer are still here, but concerns remain and they might even have become even more exacerbated since this month.
    AAPL released new potential sources of revenue such as Apple Pay, Apple Watch and iHealth. The issue is that these new sources of revenue depend entirely on iPhone sales. There is absolutely no alternative or safety nets for the AAPL's future (besides its cash) in case if iPhones would suddenly go out of the trend. There is an absolutely irrational and exuberant hype surrounding iPhones, but the issue is that these types of trends vanish as suddenly and unexpectedly as they appear. What if iPhone 6 would make a flop on the long run? After all, iPhone 6 is a breakthrough compared to 5s, but they only sold 1m more 6's than 5s's so far. What if iPhone 6s/7 won't have the same success? What if iPhone would become the next Nokia or Blackberry? It would be completely irresponsible to swipe these concerns, since they are completely justified.
    Today iPhone counts for 58% of AAPL's revenue. iPad sales have already been decreasing for over a year now. So what's next? iWatch is entirely dependent on iPhone, no other brand's user would consider buying it. Apple Pay and iHealth depend on iPhones as well. So basically, once again there is no "big" releases or new product segments. Cash is obviously important, but when a company lacks of vision and uses its old cows, money won't safe it on the long run.
    A lot of Apple aficionados feel disappointed by the new iPhones. There are no Liquid Metal technology, no Sapphire screens and obviously huge lacks of basic durability engineering studies. iOS8 offered a new round of glitches and battery drains, without any true innovation to counterbalance these inconveniences. If the quality of AAPL products goes down, design alone won't satisfy consumers anymore.
    If as expected, the coming Keynotes would only deliver some minimalistic refreshments and no new products, I think that AAPL will face a slow downtrend such as the one we saw after the iPhone 5 release. A business that doesn't go forward, always goes backwards.
    Sep 25, 2014. 07:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long lines seen worldwide for iPhone 6 release [View news story]
    It is cheap, but the question is, will AAPL shares raise in price and reach the market's average PE, or will other companies face a severe correction in the coming months. I think that a huge correction is coming. In my opinion, it's not AAPL that is being cheap, but rather other companies that became way too expensive especially considering the incredibly disappointing results. Time will tell. This year reminds me of 2007-2008. More and more self standing economists and financial analysts claim that we are heading straight into a new crisis and when you see the valuations of companies such as BABA, FB, TSLA, NFLX, TWTR, I tend to agree that we are in the middle of a huge bubble and a lot of investors might lose a lot of feathers.
    From a strict economic point of view, nothing has fundamentally improved and there is absolutely nothing that could justify the present market's valuations.
    Sep 19, 2014. 07:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long lines seen worldwide for iPhone 6 release [View news story]
    My friends went to France and Germany today to buy new iPhones. Queues were amazing, over 100 people per store. The issue is that only about 1/3 of these people could actually purchase an iPhone and most of them simply came to take their preordered devices. The demand is obviously tremendous, but apparently there are huge supply issues in Europe according to the store managers. Hopefully it's only temporary. In any case, if AAPL won't be able to supply people with iPhones now, they will most certainly wait a couple of months. It's not an issue for Apple addicts, it gives an even more exclusive ora brings even more enthusiasts.
    Sep 19, 2014. 07:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone 6 first weekend sales could disappoint, Bernstein analyst says [View news story]
    There are a little bit more than 250m of sold iPhones (all models) on the world market so far. Do you actually believe that AAPL would be able to sell 91m additional expensive high end phones in just one single quarter? That kind of irrational expectations, even from long investors makes me consider this stock as a potential short candidate in the very near future. AAPL will obviously present tremendous sales, probably in the range of 39-41m, but somehow people tend to expect miracles from AAPL, like if instead of selling $1,000 phones, it was selling bottles of Coke.
    Sep 17, 2014. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry buys virtual ID solution provider Movirtu [View news story]
    No way... Gee, thanks for breaking it up for me! See, the issue is that a company in BBRY's situation must be as transparent as possible. With revenue down 65% Y/Y, devices revenue down 82% Y/Y, services revenue down 29% Y/Y and $1b in convertible bonds, BBRY must show investors that it counts every penny. When a company doesn't earn any money, cash is the only guarantee for investors. Buying unknown companies, with unknown revenue for an unknown price might only send a positive signal to biased longs who wish to see only the bright side, but it's considered as suspicious to shorts and people who might consider investing in BBRY. By doing so, Chen is going to create even more uncertainty for the next results and it might introduce a brand new round of downward spiral.
    Sep 11, 2014. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry buys virtual ID solution provider Movirtu [View news story]
    Second acquisition with undisclosed terms. Smells really bad. It would better be good for BBRY or they will get severely punished during the earnings. If Chen won't show any significant revenue improvements and uses a huge part of the BBRY's cash, it won't be pretty to watch. No one even has an idea of Secusmart and Movirtu balance sheets. Has Secusmart acquisition been approved by the German government, by the way? It's suspiciously quiet regarding that acquisition as well.
    Sep 11, 2014. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comps slide 20% at RadioShack, 'exploring' balance sheet [View news story]
    Already down in the pre-market... Something doesn't seem right about that stock. It's being heavily traded even though it's on the border of a bankruptcy. Obviously, a lot of cash has been made with trader raids and SEC doesn't do anything to regulate the situation. I wouldn't dare to touch it. It reminds me of Kodak, investors believed that the company could be saved until the very last minute. Good luck to longs!
    Sep 11, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One more thing: Here comes the Apple Watch [View news story]
    A silver watch? Boy, you are a huge watch expert! I bet you work at least for Rolex...
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One more thing: Here comes the Apple Watch [View news story]
    No problem. Europeans will take a couple more mortgages to buy the new iPhone and the watch, while American "fashionistas" will have another 2 weeks "diet" to buy the 18 cts version. No doubts that they will sell like hot cakes. When economy is in doldrums, high end products offer tremendous sales numbers.
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3rd month in a row of lower Macau gaming revenue [View news story]
    Gamblers are gamblers. If they don't come this month, expect massive arrivals by year's end, that will compensate for the losses occurred this summer. People can't restrain themselves forever, the more they restrain themselves today, the more they will spend in the very near future. At these ridiculous levels, these stocks are big buying opportunities.
    Sep 2, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why You Should Never Follow The Herd [View article]
    Well, after reading the comments here, I'm not quiet sure which "herd" is right on Blackberry. Regardless if you're long or short each person can find his own audience of supporters, so talking about a herd is quiet senseless on the market. A lot of short interest, but at the same time, there are millions of diehard longs who won't sell BBRY even if it goes close to zero. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle and right now the range of $9-11 is quiet justified if you take into account the risk/reward point of view. BBRY can shoot higher again at any moment and might even reach $18, but it can also slump back to $6 without any serious reason for that, so why take the risk? There are dozens of much better investments on the market with much more reasonable risk levels.
    Aug 30, 2014. 03:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Secure Is BB10 And Does It Matter? [View article]
    Cliff,

    "When was the last time you could trot down to you local Verizon store and buy one of those $3000 NATO phones? Or any of the other variants?"

    Do you claim that it would actually be possible to compare a 3.000€ governmental Blackberry to any other Blackberry that you can buy at your phone provider's store? Angela Markel's Blackberry was developed by German Anti-spy Agency and Secusmart, David Cameron's was developed by MI6, Obama's by NSA. Even between theses phones the security level isn't the same. Blackberry is simply a provider of an initial configuration fit to be reprogramed to be more secured. After months of studies, simulations and tens of thousands of additional code lines and hundreds of thousands of dollars of security budget the phone becomes authorized for an official use. Blackberry's role is marginal at most and it can be replaced by other phones in the very near future.
    Aug 28, 2014. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for Sep. 9 event [View news story]
    "The event will be held at 1PM ET in Cupertino."

    Jesus, is it that hard to read the full bullets before posting your own advertisement?
    Aug 28, 2014. 01:04 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry emerges victorious against Typo Products [View news story]
    Cliff,

    Q10 doesn't offer anything else besides the language on its keyboard. Z10 and Z30 obviously do offer other languages on their virtual keyboards, but you were taking about physical in your comment so don't change subject.

    Blackberry positioned itself as a business tool, we are not talking about simple consumers, teenagers or any other white trash. Corporate market targets educated and degreed executives who obviously speak something more than English. Obviously, everyone doesn't speak a sufficiently good English in the World to understand you or to do business with you. If you want to sell anything to these "Asian folks and Germans and Frenchmen" you have to speak with them in their own language, especially if we are taking about investment products. Buying stuff is an other deal. Whey do you think that last year Samsung took over 30% of Blackberry's corporate consumers with their Note models? Because Blackberry is the future? Nope. Because Phablets with virtual keyboard are the future.
    Aug 25, 2014. 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry emerges victorious against Typo Products [View news story]
    You're kidding, right? How many of these Typo keyboards have been sold? 1.000-5.000? Talking about royalties....
    Aug 24, 2014. 07:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
319 Comments
830 Likes