Bloomberg reports Pres. Obama will offer a mini-deal to avert some of the effects of the fiscal cliff’s tax and spending changes, including delaying or replacing some automatic spending cuts scheduled to begin Jan. 1. A mini-deal could include a cap on tax increases at $400K in earnings and an alternative minimum tax patch. Stocks remain stuck in the red. [View news story]
Maybe heading into the Fiscal Cliff is the solution. After all, neither Democrats or Republicans want to reduce that dept. They just keep kicking that dept to the coming years, while no viable solution is offered and so the debt is getting even more dangerous day after day. There are no miracles, if you want to reduce the deficit you need to slash expenses and increase taxes for everyone. Obama tried to use the Keynesian theory and increased the spending dramatically, but it just doesn't work. The United States do have a higher than average economical growth among the developed countries, nevertheless that artificial growth doesn't compensate the debt. In just 4 years Obama barely doubled the national debt, while the economy didn't get as better as expected. From the strictly economical aspect a CEO like Mr Obama wouldn't have stayed another 4 years with such a balance. The worst thing is that the US become more and more like Europe with way too generous social programs, people refusing to work for lower salaries and entrepreneurs refusing to start new businesses with high social expenses.
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
Berylrb,
I've been using iPad for 3 years and I perfectly know that product. It's an extremely restricted OS and there are dozens of features that you can't do at all without "jail breaking" it. Personally, I don't want to buy a product in order to "hack" it and to compromise its OS and its security by some illegal manipulations. So yes, there is a USB adaptor, but in order to use it as a USB port you need to hack your iPad. So if you want to transfer some file you need to link your iPad to your computer and transfer it through USB. That makes you tablet completely dependable of your computer and it's just another gadget. Same thing if you want to download a file other than a PDF, you need to downloaded it on your computer and transfer it on your iPad. The other thing that I like in Surface is the real multitasking. You can open simultaneously 2 apps and you have 2 windows opened on one screen. iPad doesnt even have a true multitask. There are hundreds of examples to the lack of productivity of iPad compared to a Mac or a PC, so no, an iPad isn't a real computer. I also had a physical keyboard and the fact that you had to use a keyboard with a touch screen wasn't comfortable at all. What I like about Surface is that its keyboard has a little laptop mouse square so you can use Surface as a PC, or as a touch PC.
"That's just wrong, what exactly do you need flash for any who? Give me an example?"
That's the most biased Apple-fan argument I heard and unfortunately it's not the first time I hear it. Apple found a ridiculous excuse to justify their lack of business ethics and to hide the fact that they behave themselves like parasites toward the concurrence, while you repeat their slogans like a parrot. I need a flash player simply because this format is supported overall on the Internet. It's not up to Apple to say to their custommers what they do need and what they don't. That's the difference between a short run trend company and a long run tech giant. It's true that many sites adopted HTML5, but they offer a less exhausted content than the original versions, while millions of sites use only the Flash. If you want to see a video on CNBC you need a flash player. If you want to watch a YouTube video you only get the access to the unofficial videos posted by users, but certainly not the official context like for example Vevo, cause you can't watch them on a "mobile" device. iPad isn't the only tablet on the market anymore so either they will start fitting to their custommers, or they will keep loosing them. So if you are a teenager who only needs to surf on the Internet, be on Facebook and play some crappy games, buy a trendy iPad. But if you are a businessman looking or a productive tool that can replace your computer completely, buy a Surface.
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
The relation between Microsoft and Nokia is getting a little bit more obscure with every piece of news we get... The big question is if Microsoft works with Nokia or against it. Nokia took all the risks by adopting WP and they got nothing out of this deal! They didn't get any kind of short term exclusivity, no free promotion, no apps, Surface Phone rumors and all that for a completely new and uncertain OS. Way to go Elop!
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
Tack,
"And, to make matters worse, their too-late effort is led by a Windows-8 user interface that is completely unsuitable for desktop computers, especially corporate computers, where a touch screen of "Hollywood squares" is completely superfluous."
That's because Microsoft see that the PC is dying and they decided to participate in PC's execution rather than to fight against the natural evolution of the tech market. The Surface tablet is the first viable link between the PC and the tablet. It has the best of the two worlds, it's a tablet, it has a physical keyboard and a USB port. No doubt that they will beat Apple in a couple of years. Customers are pragmatic, it might take some time but common sense will take over the trend. iPad can't replace a PC, you can't do all the tasks on an iPad without a good physical keyboard, a flash player or a USB port. On the other hand Surface is a real solution, cause once you purchase a Surface, you buy a PC and a tablet for a cheaper price than an iPad. For now they will simply sell licenses to Nokia, HTC, HP, Acer, etc. for their tablet-PC's. The showed the way to go and eventually either they will revolutionize the talblet market or they will simply sell licenses. They will earn a lot with any configuration, even though Surface sales are certainly going to be disappointing for this quarter.
Microsoft guys are smart and they have a long experience so I'm sure that they will make an adapted version of Win 8 for the corporations. Surface Pro might be that adaptation. A serious OS with a talet making its way in the corporate world.
Disclosure : No positions in MSFT, I'm just a happy owner of a Surface.
RIM (RIMM -21.2%) has added to its losses, as worries about the impact of BB10's services pricing mount. Goldman, which upgraded RIM to Buy last month (I, II), suggests investors are overreacting, since BB7 won't be affected. But Deutsche is less sanguine, forecasting RIM's service revenue will fall 20% each of the next 2 years. Ditto CLSA, which is "downgrading" shares to Sell from Underperform. "RIMM’s business model is being challenged by operators that are unwilling to both subsidize devices aggressively and hand over a slice of their data revenue." (transcript) [View news story]
J Mintzmyer,
Now I'm long NOK and I was short AAPL till this week. Both worked pretty well. I invested in RIMM in September at $6,60 and sold at $11,80 a couple of months later. To be honest I was very surprised of that rally and I think that RIMM doesn't worth that much, that's why I sold.
I would define BB10 success as RIM selling 20-25m BB10 devices worldwide and signing 1-2m new corporate service contracts. I honestly don't know what the rates of BB10 success are, since I didn't even see the finished product. The only thing that I know is that they are quiet late with the release and that they are out of cash to fix BB10 if something goes bad, or to launch a high scale promotion. If it's a failure I'd say that $9 a share is clearly a scam. It would never worth that much. If it's a success described above the share might soar at $20-25, but certainly not $50. Who would pay that much for a struggling tech company with just $950m in cash? They barely have enough to commercialize one single product! It's a double or nothing configuration here. Either they make it with BB10 or they fill for a bankruptcy. That's clearly not wise to advice people investing in RIM! I wouldn certainly not take that responsibility.
I don't know if you realize it or not, but the whole RIMM rally was clearly based on takeover odds. Now that RIM failed its Q4 the speculations will be even more intense. You can only speculate about how much other companies might offer for RIM. Anyhow, I saw only one BB10 touch device, it was made of cheap plastic and I wasn't really impressed. Nevertheless the corporate features that BB10 has to offer on paper (don't know what we are going to get at the end) are clearly very interesting, so if RIM concentrates exclusively on corporations and businessmen, they might make it eventually. Not one single high-end Blackberry could capture any attention of the large public, or of teenagers. So maybe going back to basics will be the key.
RIM (RIMM -21.2%) has added to its losses, as worries about the impact of BB10's services pricing mount. Goldman, which upgraded RIM to Buy last month (I, II), suggests investors are overreacting, since BB7 won't be affected. But Deutsche is less sanguine, forecasting RIM's service revenue will fall 20% each of the next 2 years. Ditto CLSA, which is "downgrading" shares to Sell from Underperform. "RIMM’s business model is being challenged by operators that are unwilling to both subsidize devices aggressively and hand over a slice of their data revenue." (transcript) [View news story]
It's rediculous. You "bet" on one single product - BB10. We didn't see it in definitive commercial version, we didn't see any features or apps, we didn't see any new Blackberry devices that might run the new OS, we don't know when BB10 "might" eventually get released and still, you speculate on rather it's going to be a success or not and how much RIMM shares might worth...
You should play in casino rather than investing on market.
Research In Motion (RIMM): FQ3 EPS of -$0.22 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $2.73B (-47% Y/Y) beats by $70M. 6.9M BlackBerrys shipped, 255K PlayBooks. BlackBerry subs fell by 1M Q/Q to 79M. Shares halted. (PR) [View news story]
RIMM looses 22 cent a share, they sell only 6,9m Blackberry's and 255k playbooks worldwide and shares rise? There is no any evidence of a turnaround except a hypothetical success of BB10, that might be released only by February and they keep rallying. That is getting rediculous!
I would be scared of bankruptcy if they weren't making $7B in profit a year and were loosing cash. I would have been standing on market's side in bashing HP. Their problem is poor management and lower than average margins. The business is certainly not in danger. While market's reception on the eventual split will certainly be extremely positive.
HPQ must have been the worst trade ever for me. Got long in the worst timeframe. Bought some at $24,6 cause the stock seemed cheap with these fundamentals, but it went dramatically down. Wanted to buy shares at $18, but it seems that I was too late and the stock went down to $14. In these cases you always wonder if you were lucky or not... On one hand you lost even more cash on shares that you hold, on the other hand you didn't loose even more. So than I bought even more shares at $14,60 to recover my loses. The damn stock went down right after their phenomenal Autonomy writedown and bought again at $11,8. So now I have an average price of $15,2 and hell knows where this devilish stock is going...
Nevertheless I feel that I'll have to keep it for a while. It might take several years, but this stock is going to outperform the market once the investors and analysts will stop overreacting and move to another victim.
Nokia (NOK) has talked with Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Compal about developing a 10" Windows RT tablet, claims sometimes-accurate Digitimes, which adds the device could launch at February's Mobile World Congress. Nokia tablet rumors were rife earlier this year. Early sales of Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface RT have been weak, though its distribution, pricing, and ergonomics could have something to do with that. Separately, Bloomberg reports Microsoft has been drawing closer to HTC. [View news story]
It would be a terrible mistake to release a Nokia RT tablet. Just to hope for a success, they absolutely need to produce Windows 8 tablet. No one needs a Nokia "Surface" with a trendy design, what people expect is to get the latest OS, not just a design. I just hope that it will at least have much more exhausted functions than iPad and a USB port.
Why Nokia's (NOK) Phone Division Is At Risk [View instapost]
Eld,
Excellent article! The thing is, Nokia has too many different phones in production to fit to the customer's preferences in different parts of the globe. They still sell phones with numeric keyboards and even though they see a huge success in emerging markets, Nokia barely earns money on selling them. To increase their margins, they will not only have to fire a lot of worker, but they will also have to make a lot of adjustments in their product lines. It will take a lot of time, but I think that they will be able to make it by the end of 2013. It will also depend of their new releases and of the demand for Lumias, how will it evolve in time. Nevertheless Nokia doesn't start out of scratch and it's much easier to adjust production in existing facilities rather than to build new ones.
Regarding the share price, NOK is traded extremely low so investor's expectations are not as delusional as those, that Apple is facing right now. So I suppose that even if they will burn some cash, as long as the sales are correct or even maybe exceeding the expectations, NOK won't face this summer's lows anymore. So I don't think that I'll make any moves with NOK before seeing what the company becomes in 2014. The positive side is that psychologically people invest much easier in cheap stocks rather than in whales like AAPL, IBM or AMZN. They get their cash easier out of pocket and hope for a miracle, so NOK can soar very fast if many longs notice that the company is outperforming and jump in.
If you regard the stock from the perspective of the demand, it has a huge upside potential, even though the company is suffering and th management didn't get any better.
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
Eld,
You seem to forget that market isn't rational on the short term (6 months - 1 year), even though the classic economical theory says the exact opposite. There are some people who gamble, others who are centered on fundamentals and figures, I tend to do both. Every year, I keep 20-30% of my personal portfolio for outsiders, like NOK or HPQ. And guess what, outsiders make over 60% of my full year market profits year after year.
Market seems to always exaggerate the situation and that's how you make easy profits. Last year people were making noise about banks and I made nice profits on BAC, C, JPM and GS. This year it's tech stocks. For example, back in September I bought RIMM for $6,4 and sold it after a huge rally for $11,6, simply because the fundamentals wasn't following the rally, it was all about BB10 speculation. Well, I could already earn $2,5 more, while nothing new happened during last week. Is it rational? Nope.
Take Apple stocks. Is it rational that they lost almost $200? The figures are excellent, the market sentiment seemed great and suddenly there was a huge slump. Who could forecast that? Certainly not the guy analyzing his figures.
As my boss once said, it's less risky to invest in a terrible beaten penny stock than in stocks like Apple with apparently excellent fundamentals and that everyone is chasing... Last month he invested on the Greek market a week before a 30% rally. We almost thought that he got crazy and that we'd need to seek for another job, but the old man made it again... Sometimes even when you analyze the figures, you see only what you want to see. On the other hand, sometimes you just don't have the guts to take a risk. But saying that figures are telling you everything isn't 100% true.
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
When I searched for the iPhone 4s over a year ago in Europe, every store got 5-10 iPhones per week and it was constantly sold out. Nevertheless it was sold by millions allover the world. Same thing with iPhone 5, even though it's clear that the demand in Europe for the iPhone 5's went down. There are no more waiting time on official sites for over a month, which is really shocking.
During the holiday season, Nokia might make a home run if they sell 10-30 devices per store every 3 days! To be honest, it seems way too much for me... I'm a little bit less optimistic on the long term. People tend to rush on the new devices upon the release and the sales go down dramatically in the following months. Anther Apple consequence...
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
Eld,
No one has the actual figures and no one knows how Apple counts its own Apps. There are many Apps that are simultaneously available on iPhone and iPad. Is it considered as being 1 App or 2 Apps? No one can answer. But when you launch a search on AppStore on an iPad you generally get the following proportion - 600 Apps for iPad and 1k Apps for iPhone. You can launch an iPhone App on iPad with a restricted resolution, but you don't even get the iPad Apps results on iPhone.
Anyhow, searching Apps on AppStore isn't like launching a search on Google, you can't get the total number of results. So basically what we get is what Apple wants us to see.
Bloomberg reports Pres. Obama will offer a mini-deal to avert some of the effects of the fiscal cliff’s tax and spending changes, including delaying or replacing some automatic spending cuts scheduled to begin Jan. 1. A mini-deal could include a cap on tax increases at $400K in earnings and an alternative minimum tax patch. Stocks remain stuck in the red. [View news story]
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
I've been using iPad for 3 years and I perfectly know that product. It's an extremely restricted OS and there are dozens of features that you can't do at all without "jail breaking" it. Personally, I don't want to buy a product in order to "hack" it and to compromise its OS and its security by some illegal manipulations. So yes, there is a USB adaptor, but in order to use it as a USB port you need to hack your iPad. So if you want to transfer some file you need to link your iPad to your computer and transfer it through USB. That makes you tablet completely dependable of your computer and it's just another gadget. Same thing if you want to download a file other than a PDF, you need to downloaded it on your computer and transfer it on your iPad. The other thing that I like in Surface is the real multitasking. You can open simultaneously 2 apps and you have 2 windows opened on one screen. iPad doesnt even have a true multitask. There are hundreds of examples to the lack of productivity of iPad compared to a Mac or a PC, so no, an iPad isn't a real computer. I also had a physical keyboard and the fact that you had to use a keyboard with a touch screen wasn't comfortable at all. What I like about Surface is that its keyboard has a little laptop mouse square so you can use Surface as a PC, or as a touch PC.
"That's just wrong, what exactly do you need flash for any who? Give me an example?"
That's the most biased Apple-fan argument I heard and unfortunately it's not the first time I hear it. Apple found a ridiculous excuse to justify their lack of business ethics and to hide the fact that they behave themselves like parasites toward the concurrence,
while you repeat their slogans like a parrot. I need a flash player simply because this format is supported overall on the Internet. It's not up to Apple to say to their custommers what they do need and what they don't. That's the difference between a short run trend company and a long run tech giant. It's true that many sites adopted HTML5, but they offer a less exhausted content than the original versions, while millions of sites use only the Flash. If you want to see a video on CNBC you need a flash player. If you want to watch a YouTube video you only get the access to the unofficial videos posted by users, but certainly not the official context like for example Vevo, cause you can't watch them on a "mobile" device. iPad isn't the only tablet on the market anymore so either they will start fitting to their custommers, or they will keep loosing them. So if you are a teenager who only needs to surf on the Internet, be on Facebook and play some crappy games, buy a trendy iPad. But if you are a businessman looking or a productive tool that can replace your computer completely, buy a Surface.
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
More signs of tighter ties between Microsoft (MSFT) and HTC as the Taiwanese device maker is reportedly planning 12-inch and 7-inch tablets based on the Windows RT OS. HTC was ruled out as an initial partner in Microsoft's tightly controlled selection process, and said it was getting out of U.S. tablets a couple of months ago amid market-share struggles against the iPad, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. [View news story]
"And, to make matters worse, their too-late effort is led by a Windows-8 user interface that is completely unsuitable for desktop computers, especially corporate computers, where a touch screen of "Hollywood squares" is completely superfluous."
That's because Microsoft see that the PC is dying and they decided to participate in PC's execution rather than to fight against the natural evolution of the tech market. The Surface tablet is the first viable link between the PC and the tablet. It has the best of the two worlds, it's a tablet, it has a physical keyboard and a USB port. No doubt that they will beat Apple in a couple of years. Customers are pragmatic, it might take some time but common sense will take over the trend. iPad can't replace a PC, you can't do all the tasks on an iPad without a good physical keyboard, a flash player or a USB port. On the other hand Surface is a real solution, cause once you purchase a Surface, you buy a PC and a tablet for a cheaper price than an iPad. For now they will simply sell licenses to Nokia, HTC, HP, Acer, etc. for their tablet-PC's. The showed the way to go and eventually either they will revolutionize the talblet market or they will simply sell licenses. They will earn a lot with any configuration, even though Surface sales are certainly going to be disappointing for this quarter.
Microsoft guys are smart and they have a long experience so I'm sure that they will make an adapted version of Win 8 for the corporations. Surface Pro might be that adaptation. A serious OS with a talet making its way in the corporate world.
Disclosure : No positions in MSFT, I'm just a happy owner of a Surface.
RIM (RIMM -21.2%) has added to its losses, as worries about the impact of BB10's services pricing mount. Goldman, which upgraded RIM to Buy last month (I, II), suggests investors are overreacting, since BB7 won't be affected. But Deutsche is less sanguine, forecasting RIM's service revenue will fall 20% each of the next 2 years. Ditto CLSA, which is "downgrading" shares to Sell from Underperform. "RIMM’s business model is being challenged by operators that are unwilling to both subsidize devices aggressively and hand over a slice of their data revenue." (transcript) [View news story]
Now I'm long NOK and I was short AAPL till this week. Both worked pretty well. I invested in RIMM in September at $6,60 and sold at $11,80 a couple of months later. To be honest I was very surprised of that rally and I think that RIMM doesn't worth that much, that's why I sold.
I would define BB10 success as RIM selling 20-25m BB10 devices worldwide and signing 1-2m new corporate service contracts. I honestly don't know what the rates of BB10 success are, since I didn't even see the finished product. The only thing that I know is that they are quiet late with the release and that they are out of cash to fix BB10 if something goes bad, or to launch a high scale promotion. If it's a failure I'd say that $9 a share is clearly a scam. It would never worth that much. If it's a success described above the share might soar at $20-25, but certainly not $50. Who would pay that much for a struggling tech company with just $950m in cash? They barely have enough to commercialize one single product! It's a double or nothing configuration here. Either they make it with BB10 or they fill for a bankruptcy. That's clearly not wise to advice people investing in RIM! I wouldn certainly not take that responsibility.
I don't know if you realize it or not, but the whole RIMM rally was clearly based on takeover odds. Now that RIM failed its Q4 the speculations will be even more intense. You can only speculate about how much other companies might offer for RIM. Anyhow, I saw only one BB10 touch device, it was made of cheap plastic and I wasn't really impressed. Nevertheless the corporate features that BB10 has to offer on paper (don't know what we are going to get at the end) are clearly very interesting, so if RIM concentrates exclusively on corporations and businessmen, they might make it eventually. Not one single high-end Blackberry could capture any attention of the large public, or of teenagers. So maybe going back to basics will be the key.
RIM (RIMM -21.2%) has added to its losses, as worries about the impact of BB10's services pricing mount. Goldman, which upgraded RIM to Buy last month (I, II), suggests investors are overreacting, since BB7 won't be affected. But Deutsche is less sanguine, forecasting RIM's service revenue will fall 20% each of the next 2 years. Ditto CLSA, which is "downgrading" shares to Sell from Underperform. "RIMM’s business model is being challenged by operators that are unwilling to both subsidize devices aggressively and hand over a slice of their data revenue." (transcript) [View news story]
You should play in casino rather than investing on market.
Research In Motion (RIMM): FQ3 EPS of -$0.22 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $2.73B (-47% Y/Y) beats by $70M. 6.9M BlackBerrys shipped, 255K PlayBooks. BlackBerry subs fell by 1M Q/Q to 79M. Shares halted. (PR) [View news story]
The Lessons I Learned In 2012 [View article]
The Lessons I Learned In 2012 [View article]
Nevertheless I feel that I'll have to keep it for a while. It might take several years, but this stock is going to outperform the market once the investors and analysts will stop overreacting and move to another victim.
Nokia (NOK) has talked with Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Compal about developing a 10" Windows RT tablet, claims sometimes-accurate Digitimes, which adds the device could launch at February's Mobile World Congress. Nokia tablet rumors were rife earlier this year. Early sales of Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface RT have been weak, though its distribution, pricing, and ergonomics could have something to do with that. Separately, Bloomberg reports Microsoft has been drawing closer to HTC. [View news story]
Why Nokia's (NOK) Phone Division Is At Risk [View instapost]
Excellent article! The thing is, Nokia has too many different phones in production to fit to the customer's preferences in different parts of the globe. They still sell phones with numeric keyboards and even though they see a huge success in emerging markets, Nokia barely earns money on selling them. To increase their margins, they will not only have to fire a lot of worker, but they will also have to make a lot of adjustments in their product lines. It will take a lot of time, but I think that they will be able to make it by the end of 2013. It will also depend of their new releases and of the demand for Lumias, how will it evolve in time. Nevertheless Nokia doesn't start out of scratch and it's much easier to adjust production in existing facilities rather than to build new ones.
Regarding the share price, NOK is traded extremely low so investor's expectations are not as delusional as those, that Apple is facing right now. So I suppose that even if they will burn some cash, as long as the sales are correct or even maybe exceeding the expectations, NOK won't face this summer's lows anymore. So I don't think that I'll make any moves with NOK before seeing what the company becomes in 2014. The positive side is that psychologically people invest much easier in cheap stocks rather than in whales like AAPL, IBM or AMZN. They get their cash easier out of pocket and hope for a miracle, so NOK can soar very fast if many longs notice that the company is outperforming and jump in.
If you regard the stock from the perspective of the demand, it has a huge upside potential, even though the company is suffering and th management didn't get any better.
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
You seem to forget that market isn't rational on the short term (6 months - 1 year), even though the classic economical theory says the exact opposite. There are some people who gamble, others who are centered on fundamentals and figures, I tend to do both. Every year, I keep 20-30% of my personal portfolio for outsiders, like NOK or HPQ. And guess what, outsiders make over 60% of my full year market profits year after year.
Market seems to always exaggerate the situation and that's how you make easy profits. Last year people were making noise about banks and I made nice profits on BAC, C, JPM and GS. This year it's tech stocks. For example, back in September I bought RIMM for $6,4 and sold it after a huge rally for $11,6, simply because the fundamentals wasn't following the rally, it was all about BB10 speculation. Well, I could already earn $2,5 more, while nothing new happened during last week. Is it rational? Nope.
Take Apple stocks. Is it rational that they lost almost $200? The figures are excellent, the market sentiment seemed great and suddenly there was a huge slump. Who could forecast that? Certainly not the guy analyzing his figures.
As my boss once said, it's less risky to invest in a terrible beaten penny stock than in stocks like Apple with apparently excellent fundamentals and that everyone is chasing... Last month he invested on the Greek market a week before a 30% rally. We almost thought that he got crazy and that we'd need to seek for another job, but the old man made it again... Sometimes even when you analyze the figures, you see only what you want to see. On the other hand, sometimes you just don't have the guts to take a risk. But saying that figures are telling you everything isn't 100% true.
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
During the holiday season, Nokia might make a home run if they sell 10-30 devices per store every 3 days! To be honest, it seems way too much for me... I'm a little bit less optimistic on the long term. People tend to rush on the new devices upon the release and the sales go down dramatically in the following months. Anther Apple consequence...
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
No one has the actual figures and no one knows how Apple counts its own Apps. There are many Apps that are simultaneously available on iPhone and iPad. Is it considered as being 1 App or 2 Apps? No one can answer. But when you launch a search on AppStore on an iPad you generally get the following proportion - 600 Apps for iPad and 1k Apps for iPhone. You can launch an iPhone App on iPad with a restricted resolution, but you don't even get the iPad Apps results on iPhone.
Anyhow, searching Apps on AppStore isn't like launching a search on Google, you can't get the total number of results. So basically what we get is what Apple wants us to see.