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Davidoff

Davidoff
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  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    What's the point of another Windows tablet if even the Surface is a huge failure? The only thing that NOK could release is a phablet. But once again, what for? The market is completely marginal. If NOK can't gain any customers with WP Lumias, a phablet won't make things any better.
    Aug 14 12:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    I agree that the fact that Nokia phones are being so hardly discounted, becomes dramatic. It seems that Nokia decided to systematically lose money on each phone that they sell. However, it's a common commercial strategy, that can only be evaluated on the long term. There is absolutely no other way for them, to regain customers, besides offering better phones at lower prices. The growth is definitely here, however this growth is pointless if the phone division can't be self sufficient and drains all the company's cash.

    I assume that Nokia's board has some precise deadline for their current strategy and that this circus won't last forever. They will have to take some dramatic decisions in the near future. Either they sell their phone division to MSFT, either they take another 4 quarters and start making Android phones, since the only issue is the OS. This situation can't last forever. The only thing that holds the stock price at these levels is their phone division, or to be more precise Windows Phone. Perhaps Nokia would become more profitable by quitting the phone market and concentrating itself on more profitable segments. The main issue is that the money that they lose on their phone division could be used much more wisely in R&D. If they keep chasing two rabbits at the same time, they could lose all their profitability and their edge on the other markets. Make the phone division profitable or sell it.

    Basically, like most of the investors, I like NOK, but I hate WP. The day they announce an Android Nokia the stock is going to rally to $6.
    Aug 14 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry evaluating strategic alternatives [View news story]
    With spikes like we've seen this year, both shorts and longs have been more than rewarded. As I said before, I made x6 more money trading BBRY, than I made by shorting AAPL. BBRY share can go as low as $6 and as high as $18, so the premium will be calculated accordingly. We can only guess at this point. A company doesn't need to be successful or even make profit to be overpriced, it just needs some hype. With all the speculation that we are going to see ahead, the stock can go absolutely anywhere. A simple verbal 'interest' on behalf of any company (like Lenovo) will make the shares soar, while the bottom seems to be set at $9,50-10 for now. So your claims, that the stock will be sold at $10, or below $10 are as speculative as the claims that the stock is going to be bought at $40. As I see it, BBRY might be bought somewhere in the range of $12 and $15. I agree with you, that we are all businessmen and we all want to buy cheap and sell high. However, anyone who will want to purchase BBRY will have to do it by rules, by pleasing most of the investors and not making any unnecessary waves in this deal. Watsa is already at the border of a conflict of interests. The shares have been manipulated (both up and down) for a while now, and it isn't likely to stop now.
    Aug 12 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry evaluating strategic alternatives [View news story]
    I doubt that it would pass a shareholders vote for less than $15. Even Fairfax Financial's average share price turns around $14.
    Aug 12 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry evaluating strategic alternatives [View news story]
    It's really amazing that the world's 4th mobile company has to go private or to go on sale, regardless of its strong balance sheet and its more than correct sales figures, just because Wall Street isn't pleased with its results. If that's not a sign that the stock market is completely detached of the real economy and the reality, I don't know what else you need. What it basically implies, is that unless you're in the top 3 in your area, you shouldn't even bother doing business. It's a completely biased vision and it simply goes against all the economic and business theories.
    Aug 12 08:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold miners tumble as gold slips below $1,300 [View news story]
    I'd say that Nash equilibrium theory would contradict your opinion. It isn't that easy, as in theory, to close production and layoff working force and of course it would be illegal for the gold miners to make any sort of arrangements in order to reduce the supply. Their fixed costs are simply monstrous, so if they stop working they will lose even more money by not extracting at all. Miners tend to produce no matter what until the moment when the costs become too high and they go out of business. It's simply a matter of time until small miners will start to fill for bankruptcies. Generally speaking, inefficient mines are getting bought by national companies of developing countries like China and India and if they extract any gold, it isn't being commercialized. At these gold prices, I doubt that miners would start purchasing additional high cost assets, unless they'd be really cheap.
    Aug 6 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold miners tumble as gold slips below $1,300 [View news story]
    For those who don't want to invest in gold, it's the right moment to invest in big mining companies with the most efficient production costs. Even though, it's unpleasant, these price slumps will only benefit companies like GG or ABX on the long term, reducing the concurrence on the market. Companies with the highest total average costs structure won't be able to remain in the business, even on the short term. More and more companies are going to go out of business, the supply is going to be reduced, while it's very unlikely that the gold demand would slump in the foreseeable future. The gold market isn't an exception to the supply and demand theory, even though other major political factors intervene. So eventually, in a couple of years frame, the gold prices will go up dramatically.
    Aug 6 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Is A Great Company With Nearly Limitless Future Possibilities [View article]
    The issue here is that investors don't take into account the elasticity between the amount of ads and the site's use. More advertising doesn't mean more revenue. There is a limit not to cross. Basically, the more "uncovered" ads you add, the less your customers are going to be responsive to the ads and would be comprehensive regarding the fact that ads pay for the free service. This high marketing regime can't last forever. People get very easily annoyed and nothing really holds them at FB, there are other, less intrusive social sites. While marketing companies will only pay for a very precise audience and only until the advertising works. Today it can be seen as a successful marketing in part due to a novelty. So this kind of results should be taken as a pleasant surprise. Well done for the quarter, don't expect an encore any time soon... Enjoy your ride around $40-42 with the usual upgrades and PT increases and take your profits.
    Aug 5 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Moto X Will Change The Smartphone Industry [View article]
    Sorry, but in my opinion Moto X is simply a joke. Like always when it comes to hardware, Google makes a lot of noise for nothing. Google announced a phone that would revolutionize the phone market with its highest specifications and its incredibly low price. Well, Moto X has lower than average specifications and its only arguments are being customizable and being made in the US (probably exclusively for the US). What a revolution for a higher price than iPhone, Samsung and even Nokia! And the worst thing is that we bash Apple for its lack of innovation... I don't know what happened at Google, but they clearly failed. At some point, they should stick to the software, where they are undeniably at the top.
    Aug 5 09:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Investors Need To Worry More About Sony And Less About BlackBerry [View article]
    A question of pride and common sense. MSFT already spent around $1-2B worldwide in 2012-2013 (the actual figure hasn't been revealed) on the largest marketing campaign, trying to promote W8 and WP8. Why would they stop now, since there is some actual sales growth? However, as I see it, if they had used at least 50% of this marketing money to hire developers to make WP8 more advanced and more innovative and to develop more Apps, the effect would have been way more positive! Cause let's face it, the weakest link remains MSFT... All the negative remarks target exclusively WP8 OS.
    Jul 29 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It "just isn't true" that teens are leaving Facebook (FB), says Mark Zuckerberg during the Q2 call, citing company data and countering reports of teen fatigue. He adds "people on average are spending more time on Facebook than ever before," and that the company's main ad priority is to grow its advertiser count, rather than its ad count.  Gaming revenue was up an adjusted 11% Y/Y (good for ZNGA ... if it can halt share losses). Though capex fell in Q2, it's expected to grow 50% Y/Y in 2013. Time spent on Facebook averaged 20B/day in June, or 17 minutes/MAU. Ad prices +13% Y/Y, and spending by e-commerce firms rose significantly. Zuck again suggests Facebook is in no rush to monetize Instagram. FB +16.9% AH. (Q2: I, II) (live blogs: I, II[View news story]
    I don't really see why cognitive psychologists would "wish" that Facebook would lose users. Trends always come from the top and reach the bottom. Wealthy teens brought Facebook to Europe and made it trendy, other teens followed, then parents and finally the grandparents. It was a form of social distinction to join FB in Europe, cause most of the people didn't even know what it was, and now that it became mainstream, it became a social distinction sign to quit it, even though you can't really quit Facebook, since they own each profile and never allow to delete them. So these same wealthy teens will certainly bring Facebook back to the ground in a couple of years. After all, social sites are a trend like any other and they depend entirely on their users. They don't have any other alternative income, besides the users. The positive side is that the third age seems even more addicted to Facebook than the teenagers.
    Jul 25 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It "just isn't true" that teens are leaving Facebook (FB), says Mark Zuckerberg during the Q2 call, citing company data and countering reports of teen fatigue. He adds "people on average are spending more time on Facebook than ever before," and that the company's main ad priority is to grow its advertiser count, rather than its ad count.  Gaming revenue was up an adjusted 11% Y/Y (good for ZNGA ... if it can halt share losses). Though capex fell in Q2, it's expected to grow 50% Y/Y in 2013. Time spent on Facebook averaged 20B/day in June, or 17 minutes/MAU. Ad prices +13% Y/Y, and spending by e-commerce firms rose significantly. Zuck again suggests Facebook is in no rush to monetize Instagram. FB +16.9% AH. (Q2: I, II) (live blogs: I, II[View news story]
    I read several psychology articles about youth behavior regarding social sites and it appears that in European countries, mostly in France and UK, the new hype among young people is to quit Facebook and Twitter a likes, as a sign of social differentiation. According to the European media, the average age of FB users is close to 39-40. I can hardly believe FB claims and figures. Maybe there are new young users in developing countries, but in the Western countries the FB hype among teens is definitely over. If that's the case, the advertising impact is obviously not the same if we are talking about developing countries.
    Jul 24 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) has hired Paul Deneve, until now the CEO of French luxury fashion brand Yves St Laurent, to be a VP working on "special projects." No word on what those projects will be, but something design-related is a good bet. Deneve held a sales/marketing position for Apple Europe from 1990-1997. [View news story]
    I think that most of the people, who post on this site, including myself, see that kind of gadgets from an added value perspective. We generally ask ourselves about the utility of this kind of products and see them as a superficial an unnecessary expense. However, Apple tends to see the trends beneath each product that they release. An iPhone is obviously not the best phone in the world, but it's trendy and has an attractive design. It's exactly the same with iPads, these aren't the most functional tablets on the market, but their unique design, that everyone tends to copy, made them bestsellers.

    If Apple makes an expensive watch (>$600), with an excellent design and some "cool" illusionary innovative feature, I think that most of the youths will buy it, simply because Apple will launch a brand new trend of the wearable luxury technology. For instance, even if Google Voice or Glasses could be more useful and are probably more innovative, they have much less chances to become as popular as an Apple's iWatch and to be sold in the same quantities, regardless of the price. Unfortunately, hype will always overcome functionality.
    Jul 2 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga (ZNGA +11%) soars as Kara Swisher reports Microsoft (MSFT -0.2%) Interactive Entertainment (Xbox division) chief Don Mattrick is leaving, and is set to take a "top job" at Zynga, quite possibly that of CEO. Sources claim an announcement could arrive today. Zynga chairman/CEO Mark Pincus has taken plenty of heat from both investors and employees for his performance; his giant share of Zynga's voting rights should guarantee he'll maintain control of the company whether or not a new CEO is named. [View news story]
    MSFT becomes an IT Goldman&Sachs. They place their pawns in each company to represent their interests and gain more influence on the concurrence. Smooth move! Next thing we'll know people will start to speculate on a takeover.
    Jul 1 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things That Need To Happen For Gold & Silver To Bottom [View article]
    I would say that it's the right moment to invest in gold mining corporations, like GG or ABX. No matter what, large miners will get stronger. It's fair to think, that the largest companies have the most efficient cost structures, so if the gold prices go down, a lot of small companies will go out of business. It means less concurrence for the bigger ones, who will be able to adjust their production much more easily in order to bring the prices higher. On the other hand, the Barrick's delayed Pascua-Lama project is going to have incredibly low extraction costs and even if the gold prices would go lower, unlike others, they will still be able to earn a lot. ABX is a strong buy. You will get a large premium for taking a calculated risk today.
    Jul 1 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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