Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Davidoff's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • H-P now -6.2% AH; company doesn't expect FY14 rev. growth [View news story]
    Good. HPQ share price will go back to reality.
    Aug 21, 2013. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gathering IPO momentum for Twitter [View news story]
    "Though Twitter has work to do on monetizing its platform, more than 50% of company revenue does come from mobile - a higher percentage than Facebook."

    So now suddenly it's a bad thing... They pushed FB to increase their mobile monetization. When they finally succeeded last quarter, markets applauded. But when it comes to Twitter it's an issue? Sound very logical... Brilliant analysis!
    Aug 21, 2013. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gathering IPO momentum for Twitter [View news story]
    FB encore. They didn't scam enough investors yet.
    Aug 21, 2013. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodak restructuring approved by U.S. bankruptcy court [View news story]
    Haven't all their valuable patents been sold? I think that I read somewhere that Google and Apple won some bids, but most of the patents didn't find a buyer. So I don't really see what hidden value you're talking about... In the best case, shareholders could get $0,08 instead of $0,05, but it's written "shareholders will get nothing".. Also, talking about customer base is quiet premature. I can't even imagine what would they have to offer in today's tech market.
    Aug 20, 2013. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple keeps rallying; company hires Nike FuelBand consultant [View news story]
    Bad omen... Brand new manufacture issues related to that fingerprint sensor to come.
    Aug 19, 2013. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial to sell reinsurance unit as part of acquisiton [View news story]
    Suspicious timing. Looks like Prem Watsa tries to raise money for the BBRY bid.
    Aug 19, 2013. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tablet? Really Nokia? [View article]
    What I find quiet awkward, is that the same analysts who bashed BBRY for quitting the tablet market, bash Nokia for (maybe) entering it. No matter what these companies will do, they will get bashed. You can't please everyone and you can't serve each analyst's interests. Nevertheless, it becomes obvious that the mobile industry is being obliged to shift towards the tablets market, rather certain analysts recognize it, or not. If companies like Lenovo can do it, why wouldn't Nokia give it a try? The only issue is why the heck did they pick RT instead of Win8....
    Aug 19, 2013. 06:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]

    I agree with you. iPhone/iPad trend is vanishing, but there are a lot of markets, that didn't even get their Apple moment yet and that's why a low-end iPhone is going to be so important. A lot of people in the developping countiries would love to use the iOS, cause after an Android, a Symbian or a BB7 it's a pure pleasure to use. We are going to have the same process as we had with iPods.

    Today Apple is going to be an excellent trade. It will certainly go up to $600 in the following months, maybe even higher. However, we will only know if it's going to be a good investment, once they will start releasing their new products. I have very low expectations regarding the refreshes, but their new product segments are going to be crucial. If they can prove that they still have their Jobs magic, the stock will act accordingly.

    The issue is not even Nokia not going Android, the issue is that they still behave like idiots regarding their customers. Samsung has such a huge success, because since the beginning, they listened to their customers and they act accordingly to what people want. Nokia behaves like if it were 90ies and people only cared about having a phone. Maybe at some point Nokia will start giving people what they really want or need, instead of making some fancy gadgets for the 0,001% of people. Nokia's board uses the exact same badly working strategy as before, make good cheap phones and some weird high end models with low success. Take for example Nokia 7280, 7260, 7600, 6800, N900 or N-gage. Some of them are pretty original, incredible and avantgardistic, but the issue is that people didn't wanted these. These models should have stayed at the public prototype stage.

    I really hope that Nokia understand and learn on their errors, but after almost 3 years of a turnaround, I see the same ill company with exactly the same poor strategy. Nokia will never become a leader with the tremendous Apple/Samdung profits without taking over the high-end market. And it will never happen, unless they will start listening.


    Today, since Nokia sold Vertu and they started using Android, their sales are reaching new records and they are opening brand new stores all over the world. A new store coming in New York, on Madison Avenue by 2014. To be honest, now that you mentioned Vertu, it's another matter that makes me doubt about Nokia board's managerial competences.
    Aug 15, 2013. 06:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    Nokia sold only 7m smartphones, its Smartphone division lost €165m and Services and Devices lost €33m in the second quarter. They might earn money by selling their phones, but it's obviously not enough. I don't see the point of playing on words, the results are still terrible. In my opinion, they would have sold much more phones if they were using Android OS. They lost their edge by using a poor OS that nobody wanted. Some people can't learn on their own mistakes and keep choosing the hardest way. The worst thing is that now they fight Microsoft's war! They don't even own WP and who knows if they'll keep it.

    NOK is a good trade. I made 46% in 4 months last year and I'm at +29% now. Hope it will go above $5 by December. If not, they will probably do better next year.


    You know more Russians than I do? Wow... That's incredible, thanks for sharing! I suppose that in your mind it seemed to be a strong argument. If you want to make stakes go to Vegas. It's an investing site, not a Belagio fan page.


    That's my personal analysis. Each investor makes his own projections, otherwise you just follow the crowd. Take Nokia's financials and prove me that NOK would do better than AAPL. NOK has much less chances to succeed at this point.
    Aug 14, 2013. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]

    iPhone 5 is losing share and there isn't much to do about it, except releasing something really special. According to this article a subsidized iPhone 5 costs 30k rubles, which is roughly $1,100. An unsubsidized costs about $1,300 in Russia. However, according to what I've been told, most of the Russians don't buy Apple products in Russia, cause they are afraid to buy a Chines counterfeit. So they buy them in EU or Switzerland. It's cheaper and it's being counted in another country's sales.


    First, who's fault is that, that the giant Nokia, the former number 1 phone maker became a "piddly little company"? And Nokia didn't abandon the US market, it lost it. Today it desperately tries to gain it back, which causes the frustration of the European customers. Read the British, French and Spanish WP fan sites. People are frustrated that the L1020 has been released in July in the US and that it's only going to be released in September in the EU. Plus, for the first time, Nokia is going to organize its annually worldwide conference in the NYC. The only result is that Nokia still has a long way to go to gain the US back and it loses customers in the EU by its ridiculous strategy.

    Secondly, I just don't see Nokia competing against Apple. They operate in two completely different segments. Nokia is a direct concurrent to Samsung. They both try to make some geeky phones, with some bizarre features and bulky designs. It might sound stupid, but Apple's core customers don't really care about specifications or features, all they care about is the design and the trend. Today iPhone became the former Blackberry, it's first of all an image. As long as Apple would offer a better model than the previous, people will still buy it. The iOS is also so well integrated in the house, that people would simply lose too much comfort. Most of the people have an iPhone, an iPad, an iPod (maybe even an iTV) and a Mac. They would lose the iCloud and all their Apps, that they've been purchasing for over 5 years. In that way, this attachment is less pronounced among Samsung's customers. I could imagine that Nokia would become the number 2 with time, but it's going to be really hard and long.

    Finally, I'd like to resume my points regarding Nokia :
    1. Nokia makes high quality phones and now they probably make the best low-end phones. However, they aren't trendy like an iPhone would be, they are just functional.
    2. Nokia doesn't need Windows Phone. Elop took unnecessary risks by going exclusively with WP and the demand isn't high enough to compensate them. It's Microsoft's project and they have the necessary funds to develop it. Nokia takes all the risks for the OS that will never belong to them and they lose a lot of customers by not adopting Android. Microsoft has enough money to take risks, while Nokia should think about its own future and its investors.
    3. Once again, like all the dinosaurs, Nokia's board refuse to listen to its customers. Adding some superficial and unnecessary features, like a 41mp camera, won't help them gaining a massive market share, if they can't satisfy the basics. You can't oblige people to use WP by offering them a 41mp camera.


    Take for example a Mercedes. Some people can afford a Mercedes S, some people can only afford a Mercedes C. They are both luxury and expensive in their own segments. A $300 iPhone is still expensive for a large part of people.
    Aug 14, 2013. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]

    While Nokia was manufacturing 200m phones, Apple was selling around 120m high-end and high margin phones a year. Gaining Russia back? Last time I've been to Moscow, about six weeks ago, all I saw were iPhones and iPads! Today Apple is THE brand that all the developing countries want. There are dozens of markets around the world where an iPhone is beyond people's dreams. And there won't be much to do, no marketing, no promotions, just a more affordable price. Apple is going to conquer by its rarity and exclusivity in the developing markets. So all the Nokia, HTC, Samsung and Blackberry phones in the range of $400 and $200 are going to have a terrible year. The 2009-2012 queues that we had in NYC, London and Paris are going to be nothing compared to what is going to happen in the developing countries once the low cost iPhone is going to be released. Lower margins are going to be largely compensated by a tremendous demand.
    Aug 14, 2013. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    The Flew,

    Oh wow, NOK makes a couple of bucks on two low-end devices... That's a game changer! Gaining low-end share is positive when your high-end phones are a success, like in Samsung's case. Nokia is trying to apply the same old strategy that brought it to the corner - flooding the market with cheap phones. I just don't see its share rising without some massive attraction in the high-end segments.

    I'm sure that if Nokia's engineers are able to put a 41mp camera in a phone, they could easily make an Android device that would run smoothly. Samsungs run pretty well AND they showoff with their high specs, which they simply need to run the OS, I'm sure that Nokia could do the same. It's pretty hard to make customers believe that a Nokia with low specs can run as well, or even better than an Android with high specs. It basically disadvantages them on the market.


    So you imply that I have the right to chose between 2 options? That's quiet narrow! I have a 3rd option for you, doing the same thing that Samsung and HTC did - going for a second "rescue" OS and giving the customers what they want - an Android Nokia. Why according to you Samsung and HTC have more Androids than WP's, if it's such a great OS? Because customers want Android. Nokia isn't the 2008 Apple, they can't impose anything to their customers and it would be much wiser to please them. Going for both WP and Android could show them, what people want and offer the choice. Android could have been Nokia's cash cow and an insurance that Nokia would be able to keep producing phones. Today, Nokia broke even, only thanks to the NSN and that's the issue! A company can't use its other divisions as an ATM indefinitely. Besides, no other Android phone maker would have a chance against the high quality Nokia's hardware.

    That's exactly what Apple is going to do. First they release their first low-cost device. Say it will cost $300. People from developing countries with means will buy it. A year later, they will release a new low-cost device and the previous model will already be sold for about $150. And people won't care about the margins. Apple will simply flood the developing countries. A little question... When was the last time that you've seen an mp3 that wasn't an iPod? Maybe it's a little bit too optimistic to compare the phone market to the mp3 market, but I believe that the low cost iPhone will be a massive hit in developing countries in 2 years from now.


    25% margins is good when there is a demand and especially high-end demand. The cheaper is the phone, the more phones they will have to sell to break even. Putting everything on the low end isn't a good model. People are reluctant to quit Android and iOS. Today you are attached to the cloud and the Apps that you've already purchased. After almost 3 years there are still no sufficient arguments to move to WP.
    Aug 14, 2013. 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    What's the point of another Windows tablet if even the Surface is a huge failure? The only thing that NOK could release is a phablet. But once again, what for? The market is completely marginal. If NOK can't gain any customers with WP Lumias, a phablet won't make things any better.
    Aug 14, 2013. 12:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    I agree that the fact that Nokia phones are being so hardly discounted, becomes dramatic. It seems that Nokia decided to systematically lose money on each phone that they sell. However, it's a common commercial strategy, that can only be evaluated on the long term. There is absolutely no other way for them, to regain customers, besides offering better phones at lower prices. The growth is definitely here, however this growth is pointless if the phone division can't be self sufficient and drains all the company's cash.

    I assume that Nokia's board has some precise deadline for their current strategy and that this circus won't last forever. They will have to take some dramatic decisions in the near future. Either they sell their phone division to MSFT, either they take another 4 quarters and start making Android phones, since the only issue is the OS. This situation can't last forever. The only thing that holds the stock price at these levels is their phone division, or to be more precise Windows Phone. Perhaps Nokia would become more profitable by quitting the phone market and concentrating itself on more profitable segments. The main issue is that the money that they lose on their phone division could be used much more wisely in R&D. If they keep chasing two rabbits at the same time, they could lose all their profitability and their edge on the other markets. Make the phone division profitable or sell it.

    Basically, like most of the investors, I like NOK, but I hate WP. The day they announce an Android Nokia the stock is going to rally to $6.
    Aug 14, 2013. 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry evaluating strategic alternatives [View news story]
    With spikes like we've seen this year, both shorts and longs have been more than rewarded. As I said before, I made x6 more money trading BBRY, than I made by shorting AAPL. BBRY share can go as low as $6 and as high as $18, so the premium will be calculated accordingly. We can only guess at this point. A company doesn't need to be successful or even make profit to be overpriced, it just needs some hype. With all the speculation that we are going to see ahead, the stock can go absolutely anywhere. A simple verbal 'interest' on behalf of any company (like Lenovo) will make the shares soar, while the bottom seems to be set at $9,50-10 for now. So your claims, that the stock will be sold at $10, or below $10 are as speculative as the claims that the stock is going to be bought at $40. As I see it, BBRY might be bought somewhere in the range of $12 and $15. I agree with you, that we are all businessmen and we all want to buy cheap and sell high. However, anyone who will want to purchase BBRY will have to do it by rules, by pleasing most of the investors and not making any unnecessary waves in this deal. Watsa is already at the border of a conflict of interests. The shares have been manipulated (both up and down) for a while now, and it isn't likely to stop now.
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment