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Davidoff

Davidoff
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  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    "Boring products with little innovation."

    That's a highly subjective claim. I'd prefer you to tell us which phone would you consider as "exciting and innovative"? AMZN with a simplistic useless 3D screen that apparently gives headaches? I hope you have the honesty to admit that it's just a gimmick and that we are still a couple of years away of the real holographic 3D technology. Or maybe would you consider Samsung or the bulky Nokia/MSFT as more innovative?

    "Most think the new iPhone will sell very well and so do I [...]"

    And that's all that should matter to a rational investor, who's not a biased reckless geek like yourself. I don't know if you are able to realize that you hate AAPL without any rational reason and because of that blind hatred you have already missed a huge 35% rally and you're about to miss the next huge rally too. You're not an investor, you're a lunatic bigot.

    Anyhow, thanks for your article. After your last piece AAPL rallied, let's hope that it's going to be an encore!

    PS : Do you still eat apples for breakfast, or did they become the forbidden fruit at your home too?
    Jun 23 11:28 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, IBM in far-reaching enterprise partnership [View news story]
    I believe that if BBRY was offering something that AAPL needed in order to optimize its security, AAPL would have bought BBRY out for peanuts. If AAPL paid $3B for Beats, they could obviously have paid a billion or two for BBRY's security department, knowing that BBRY was set for sale for about $4B. Nevertheless they didn't and no one else bought them, so in my opinion BBRY is just a balloon. Today everyone recognize that mobile security is the next big thing in the IT. It's simply crucial for the coming years. But no one, not AAPL, GOOG or even MSFT decided to buy BBRY out. Why? Certainly because they don't have a damn thing, it's all bluffing. You miss the bigger picture. BBRY is just a tiny collateral victim of that agreement. IBM and AAPL are obviously going after MSFT, which is today the big whale in the corporate market.
    Jul 15 05:25 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for Sep. 9 event [View news story]
    "The event will be held at 1PM ET in Cupertino."

    Jesus, is it that hard to read the full bullets before posting your own advertisement?
    Aug 28 01:04 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wireless hardware distributor Brightstar was the company that placed an order for 1M BB10 (BBRY -3.6%) phones, Detwiler Fentor reports and AllThingsD confirms. Detwiler notes Verizon relies on Brightstar to handle "big-box retail and dealer agent channels," and thinks the order indicates Verizon is trying to mitigate inventory risk by having a distributor handle sales. [View news story]
    When you don't believe in a product you don't order 1 million units, middlemen or not. Fear of not selling them is obviously not the reason of that covered order.
    Mar 25 02:35 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) slips 3% premarket after a downgrade to Sell at Bernstein, which sees earnings peaking in FQ1 and "significant risk" of a miss in H2. OTR Global says U.K. Q10 sales fell off a cliff and have been - "not a typo" - just 30K-50K units since launch, reports Notable Calls. [View news story]
    It's getting really absurd. Monday one analyst says sales are bellow expectations, lowers the rating and the shares drop. Tuesday another analyst says the sales are above expectations, raises the rating and the shares rally. Wednesday a new analyst enters the game with his own 2 cents and pretends that UK is a dead end for BBRY with just 50.000 devices sold. It's just ridiculous! At this point, someone should start an investigation, cause there are obviously some private interests involved in these manipulations. How about making analysts legally responsible for their analyses? Can't wait for the actual results to be released.
    Jun 19 08:40 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple + Beats: Cutting Through The Hype And Negativity [View article]
    It's hard to tell how much a tech company worth nowadays. Things shift extremely quickly and that's where you see that inflation is computed really poorly in our economy. With price tags such as $1B for Waze, $1B for Instagram, $4.5B for Snapchat and $19B for WhatsApp book sheets don't have any importance at all.

    Beats has over a billion in revenue and a +60% marketshare. We can easily say that it's a tremendous company with loyal customers and an excellent image, so in my opinion it does worth $3B. Could Apple buy it for less a year ago? Of course! But unfortunately, when people know that you have $150B in cash, any acquisition will have a huge premium. Since 2006 Beats released only one refresh, they never offer any discounts and still their sales grow year after year. Imagine what Beats could become if Apple would start releasing new models once a year during their keynotes. Apple showed us that they have the ability to revolutionize any tech product.

    Beats made of their headphones a lifestyle fashion accessory and even Swiss watch makers try to take profit from that success. Hublot (among others) for instance released limited edition golden headphones with a thousands of dollars price tag. In the same way Apple transformed mp3, phone or tablet markets, Beats transformed the headphones market so for me it's great match.

    What I find incredible is that markets were much more enthusiastic and comprehensive when Facebook purchased WhatsApp - a profitless startup. Besides that, unlike Apple, Facebook doesn't even have $19B to spend!
    May 11 09:01 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, but guidance disappoints [View news story]
    Yes... The guidance... Right. Strong and steady growth, higher margins, higher revenue, higher sales, but what about "THE" guidance? The street shows us that we should bet on magician's hats - risky, "non-profit" startup companies with a highly uncertain future, like Twitter, FB, Tesla, etc instead of on solid money making machines like Apple. After all it's way more rational to invest in volatile trends and bubbles rather than in real cash.
    Jan 27 04:46 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley delays upgrade to BB10 [View news story]
    There is sill a long way to go for MSFT to reach BB's security level. It's one thing to equip flight attendants, but it's completely another to equip bank employees and governmental agents. If BBRY disappears, no one would be able to replace it on the corporate and governmental markets. It would take billions of dollars and years of R&D. In terms of sunk costs, BBRY is simply unbeatable on that marginal, but nevertheless extremely important market. I doubt that AAPL, MSFT or GOOG would take the risk to compete on that market in wake of the investments to make and potentially modest returns.
    Aug 30 08:21 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For Godot: Time To Sell Nokia Stock [View article]
    6 years ago, Apple was different and no other company could have done what Apple did. When thy saw their computer market shrinking, they presented MacBook Air, which boosted the MacBook Pro sales too. And the Jobs' most impressive move was when Apple destroyed its iPod market feeling that the concurrence was getting close, by making an even more successful product - iPhone. Apple has always been five steps ahead of any tech company, but it was before. The day when Apple stalled with iPhone 4s and iPad Retina the concurrence was taking everything new that Apple brough to the market, from their unique ecosystem, to their marketing technics and even their design. The first one was Samsung, then Nokia and today Microsoft. Now Apple might slightly one step ahead. Microsoft reproduced iCloud, iTunes and AppStore offering to its clients a complete à la Apple connectivity between Windows PC, Windows tablet and WP Lumia recreating everything that Apple could offer, but for a much lower price.

    The thing that Apple investors don't understand is that upgrading existing iDevices won't make Apple shares rise anymore. What they need is create a whole new product and maybe even create a whole new market for this product, like they did with iPods, iPhones, MacBook Airs and iPads. They simply need to prove that they still can do something good and innovative without Jobs. Until now they failed to do so and they became another tech comany with an average management. At the same time when Apple was declining, Nokia was revealing its full potential with products that no other phone maker from 90ies could ever make. Lumia's are now at the same level as iPhones, I'm wondering if Nokia could surpass Apple in the next years. I'm long NOK.
    Oct 27 08:42 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stabs BlackBerry In The Heart [View article]
    Alex,

    Companies such as GOOG, CSCO, MSFT, AAPL and FB signed an NDA to have a full look into BBRY business just a year ago and not one single Western IT company made a public offer to buy BBRY out. If you take into account all the cheering of BBRY's security system all over the Internet, you'd suppose that everyone would start a bidding war to get that "treasure". But no. Even at less than $4.8B with 1.5-2B in cash, not one single IT giant decided to make an offer. Our legendary bulls, on the other hand, think that they discovered a treasure map and they think knowing BBRY from behind their PC screens and by googling it 24/7, better than CFOs who signed an NDA. Today BBRY has less assets, less cash, a billion dollar debt, much less revenue and their already very old patents have got even closer to the expiration date. Since no one made any efforts to purchase BBRY at least for its security after seeing the whole company from inside, I think it's way more safe to say that they are pretty screwed. Their last hope wanished with AAPL and IBM.
    Jul 23 04:24 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Eld,

    You seem to forget that market isn't rational on the short term (6 months - 1 year), even though the classic economical theory says the exact opposite. There are some people who gamble, others who are centered on fundamentals and figures, I tend to do both. Every year, I keep 20-30% of my personal portfolio for outsiders, like NOK or HPQ. And guess what, outsiders make over 60% of my full year market profits year after year.

    Market seems to always exaggerate the situation and that's how you make easy profits. Last year people were making noise about banks and I made nice profits on BAC, C, JPM and GS. This year it's tech stocks. For example, back in September I bought RIMM for $6,4 and sold it after a huge rally for $11,6, simply because the fundamentals wasn't following the rally, it was all about BB10 speculation. Well, I could already earn $2,5 more, while nothing new happened during last week. Is it rational? Nope.

    Take Apple stocks. Is it rational that they lost almost $200? The figures are excellent, the market sentiment seemed great and suddenly there was a huge slump. Who could forecast that? Certainly not the guy analyzing his figures.

    As my boss once said, it's less risky to invest in a terrible beaten penny stock than in stocks like Apple with apparently excellent fundamentals and that everyone is chasing... Last month he invested on the Greek market a week before a 30% rally. We almost thought that he got crazy and that we'd need to seek for another job, but the old man made it again... Sometimes even when you analyze the figures, you see only what you want to see. On the other hand, sometimes you just don't have the guts to take a risk. But saying that figures are telling you everything isn't 100% true.
    Dec 16 11:22 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FT: Errors place doubt on Piketty's theory about rising inequality [View news story]
    About a month ago FT published an article claiming that in 10-15 years from now the world is going to have its first trillionaire, but besides that, FT is absolutely right, there is no evidence of increasing wealth inequality whatsoever. Either FT serves its masters, either FT economists bought their degrees and never leave their uptown parties since then, cause an economist must be completely blind or biased to claim that inequalities don't increase all over the world.
    May 25 08:19 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Continues To Bleed Market Share [View article]
    There is simply no conclusive evidence that Apple is in danger, or would be during the next two years.

    First of all, Apple's users are very keen to buy pricier products. Unlike other phone makers, Apple can allow itself to release even more expensive models and by doing so, Apple might even increase its sales and earn way more from iPhones than it does today. I assume that Apple's strategy for 2014-2015 is going to be a release of one or maybe two luxurious iPhones with bigger curved screens and a sapphire glass (like on luxurious Swiss watches) among other new features. Unlike other companies, they are about to expand their models range towards the top, while others are retrograding their models in order to reduce prices and sell more with microscopic 1-3% net margins. And that's why Apple is about to make a new home run - they are consolidating their position as the only true high end phone maker on the market and like during any financial crisis, that's what consumers want today. There are no alternatives with iPhones, you can only buy the high-end iPhone, whereas Samsung is everywhere and you don't even know if a person holds a $100 or a $700 phone, cause they all look the same! There are dozens of countries where people take bank loans and spare every penny just to buy an iPhone, so the more luxurious it's going to get, the more desirable it's going to be, as long as it doesn't cross a €900 price range.

    On the other hand, if this strategy fails, which is very unlikely judging on the last quarter, they will still have 2 more options. They can reduce prices on the existing high end models, or they will be able to do the same as everyone does today, to shrink their margins and release low-end iPhones. I'd like to remind you that just a year after Apple released iPods mini, they counted for over 70% of the mp3 market, while cheap Chinese and Vietnamese mp3 brands were unsuccessfully flooding Western markets. Thanks to the present iPhone's ora these cheap iPhone versions are going to get sold like hot cakes in the developing countries.

    With $130B in cash, Apple can use absolutely any option it wants and it has ways of making money people aren't even aware of. They have a huge client base, an excellent brand perception, a tremendous technology and highly competent experts. Today they are truly the only ones who have the means to their ambitions. Moreover, from the technical point of view, there is absolutely no reason to sell APPL today, especially in the wake of the shares split. In the $80-90 range, millions of investors are going to hop in the APPL train and the stock is about to make a huge leap forward. You must really hate APPL as well as your wallet to have the guts to short AAPL today.
    May 4 08:17 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Big Elephants Afraid Of A Mouse: What Apple Is Not Telling You About BlackBerry [View article]
    "It will allow BlackBerry to upsell devices by offering clients the ability to have the same level of encryption as Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel."

    This is completely inaccurate. Unless you would like to make a special order, wait more than a year and pay several thousands of dollars for your Blackberry, no you won't have the same level of encryption as Merkel. But even if it was true, consumers simply don't care about their privacy. Their whole lives are on FB, TWTR, Snapchat, Instagram,... As long as viruses won't block or slowdown the devices, security won't be important for consumers.

    What is 20.000 sold devices compared to over 32 millions of sold iPhones each quarter? Governments and corporations switch phones every 2 years at most, however, more often it goes up to 4-5 years. These professional markets are far from being profitable. I know that initially, Blackberry was only sold to corporate executives and that's how they conquered a huge share of the consumer market by showing off their exclusive status. The issue is that we aren't in 90ies anymore and smartphones don't have the same appeal, so it won't be a renewable strategy.

    I remember that a year ago, BBRY shares went higher because of a rumor that someone made an order to purchase 1 million Z10 devices upon its launch. Today BBRY longs celebrate a 20k order. That shows only one thing, that BBRY isn't even a mouse anymore, but rather an insect under artificial life support.
    Jul 29 06:39 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, IBM in far-reaching enterprise partnership [View news story]
    Look kid, I really don't care about all that crap, that's not what investing is about. Don't even bother responding, I'm switching my notifications off. Seriously, who are you trying to convince that you made the right trade, me or yourself? I obviously don't care about your portfolio and your delusional BBRY cheers. The only thing that matters to me is figures. If you prefer to read that geeky stuff, then you obviously have nothing to do in investing, cause that's not what you should look at in order to make profits. No one cares about niche markets on Wall Street. Whereas BBRY sells 20k "secured" phones to some government, Apple sells 30m iPhones all over the world. See the difference? Secured or not, it simply doesn't matter to consumers, it's just a plus. And the fact that some German politicians don't use iPhone anymore doesn't matter to the younger generations, they simply don't read newspapers. Today AAPL announced that it's going after corporate market too. Considering their abilities and their hundreds of billions in cash, I'd say that they have much higher chances to succeed than BBRY.

    2.500€ is the price of a 4GB card. What do you think Merkel is doing, playing some flash games on her phone? I assume that she uses at least a 32GB version.

    A little lesson on how devices get hacked. Each OS is more or less 100% secured. The only thing that is "hackable" is the user himself. What happens is that the user presses on the wrong link, opens an infected attachment, or downloads the wrong app. That's how devices get hacked in 99% of cases. So no matter how secured your device is, the user is always the weakest link. That's the main reason why a basic BBRY isn't much more secured than any other phone. There are millions of apps and companies don't even check what kind of apps they put on their stores. Any content is a potential threat to your device's security.
    http://bit.ly/1nGkudP
    Jul 15 10:10 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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