Seeking Alpha

Davidoff

Davidoff
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Davidoff's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • BlackBerry: This Isn't A True Buyback [View instapost]
    I think that you wrote a very decent article here, but one paragraph seems quiet dubious.

    "Another item to think about is that BlackBerry has a large amount of convertible debt on the balance sheet. If all of that debt is converted, 125 million shares are added to the company's total at $10 a share. [...]"

    Ok, first of all, what is the point of converting to stocks trading at ~$10.50 at $10? Personally, when I purchase convertibles, there must be at least a 50% premium in order for me to convert. Therefore, unless by some miracle BBRY trades at >$12-13, I do not consider that possibility even as a remote threat. If you switch a 99% secured bond, you would better get a decent premium, otherwise you just keep cashing in your interests.

    Secondly, I believe that Fairfax owns most of these convertibles. Since it already owns a huge amount of shares, I doubt that it would take the risk to convert before a very long time.

    Therefore, I believe that either it is a true buyout, either something big is being prepared and Chen is securing the share price before the upcoming rally. Why would he even consider the possibility that so many people would wish to convert?
    May 21, 2015. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn hikes Apple target to $240, sees FY16 EPS of $12 [View news story]
    I agree and disagree. I think that the fact that someone like Icahn holds such an enormous position at AAPL makes the stock much more unstable and hence riskier. I doubt that he would announce his intention to sell the stock in advance. It is convenient to tell everyone on Twitter that you met with the CEO or that you increase your position when you are long, but it would be dramatic for him to announce that he is about to sell. Icahn could trigger a massive selloff by him own and I would certainly not want to be in the eye of the cyclone when he would do that. If the stock would remain stable and if he would realize that his price target is out of the reach, he could sell his positions just to buy them back later for much cheaper.
    May 18, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn hikes Apple target to $240, sees FY16 EPS of $12 [View news story]
    Yes and no. I think that the fact that someone like Icahn holds a huge position in AAPL makes the share more unstable and hence riskier. I doubt that Icahn will announce his plans to sell his positions in advance. It is one thing to tell on Twitter that you had a meeting with the CEO, or that you bought more shares, but it is completely another to announce that you are about to disinvest. At some point Icahn might trigger a massive selloff and I would certainly not want to sit in the eye of the cyclone when he will do that. Very few hedge funds hold their positions for that long and I think that eventually Icahn might find a better use for his funds elsewhere. For example, he could sell his positions just to buy them back later for much cheaper if he would see that his price target of $216 is out of the reach.
    May 18, 2015. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry briefly spikes on unconfirmed Microsoft rumor [View news story]
    $100 a share is common sense? Why not $1000 a share? Even if by some miracle the company hits $1.5 billion a quarter in revenue it is not likely to happen.
    May 15, 2015. 05:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry briefly spikes on unconfirmed Microsoft rumor [View news story]
    Vigma,

    It is not 'growing'. In the financial sense it is shrinking. However, there is a lot of interest in the company. Its purchase could contribute to many companies in different ways. Each part taken separately has value for a each supposedly interested company. Therefore I think that it would be sound to bet on an imminent buyout rather than on a turnaround. However the only ways for shareholders to get a deal at $15 would be an agreement to purchase the company by pieces or if there would be a betting war, which is much less likely.
    May 15, 2015. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands misses by $0.06, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Agreed. If LVS will keep paying that high dividend, the stock will simply become a bargain. Unfortunately, without a sustainable growth, the dividend will start decreasing as well.
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry down 6.6% as analysts react to earnings [View news story]
    ELLAS,

    So can we expect that Passport and Classic would have their worldwide release by 2017, or is it still too soon and optimistic? 2020? I suppose that the world is not ready yet for these masterpieces. Therefore Chen keeps his precious phones for family and friends only. Blackberry realized such an achievement by conceiving these jewels of technology and competitors fell so far behind that Chen, being a man of honor, gave them 2-3 years to catch up Blackberry. What a man!

    More seriously, if Chen doesn't know anything about production, supply chain and distribution, besides how to layoff people and cut their expenses, I'm sorry to say that, but you are obviously not praying the right Messiah. Here in Europe we've got plenty of Passports and Classics in stores and on Internet stores, but somehow nobody buys them. Perhaps next quarter Chen will try to sell these in McDonald's and Beauty shops, so that he could say that they are still not being sold everywhere and that is why their revenue and sales numbers will not be included in the next earnings reports. Unfortunately his excuses begin to get way too dubious and at least as old as Passport is about to become next quarter...

    Saying that these phones don't sell would have been so much easier and honest. But no, let's hide as much information as possible and maybe eventually shares will rise. - TH v2.1
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry down 6.6% as analysts react to earnings [View news story]
    "We need to see a full quarter of Classic and Passport sales now that carriers are assisting once more."

    And you claim that Bears live in the past and repeat the old same arguments? I've been hearing you and other longs talking about the supposed full quarter sales of Passport and Classic, but somehow it never comes. That unicorn quarter keeps systematically to be postponed.

    Let's just make it clear. Do you expect higher device sales, or do you hope that BB would become a software company? In the first case, maybe they will sell 200k more devices eventually... In the second case, with 10% of the revenue in software there is simply no chance for that to happen.

    Maybe one day, in 10-15 years from now you will finally dare to face the dire reality and eventually you will realize that the whole story about the Walhalla and the 70 virgins that Chen and Heins have been feeding you during these last 3 years was a complete utopia.

    I really hope that you will be rational enough to head to the exit before Chen will jump from this Titanic with his golden fat greasy parachute.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sets Watch prices; pre-orders start on April 10 [View news story]
    Correction : iWatch is SUPER -DUPER interstellar status. It says "I can throw $17,000 in a trash can and I don't care, cause next year I'll be doing it again for the next generation simply to prove that I still can".
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:23 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sets Watch prices; pre-orders start on April 10 [View news story]
    Yes, it's hard to admit, but you're most probably right. I clearly underestimate people's stupidity. Moreover, if the golden watch works out, it wouldn't be surprising to see a "Vertu" version of iPhone and iPad in the very near future. After all, I doubt that they opened fashion/luxury departement only for the watch.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sets Watch prices; pre-orders start on April 10 [View news story]
    Well, maybe they will sell 1,000 golden watches worldwide, who knows. A lot of noise for nothing. At most they will steal some customers from Casio and Swatch, but not even sure of that with a maximum of 18 hours for the battery life...

    I really thought that the golden edition would cost $2,000-4,000. Let's be clear, while Swiss watch makers use ultra expensive mechanisms made of gold and precious gems, here you've got only a slim golden body. A golden Swiss watch is different of a steel watch not only from the outside, but also from the inside with a much more expensive and complexe mechanism. Here you get the exact same $349 watch with the only difference is that it's made of gold. Sorry, but it doesn't worth over 28 times more.

    Moreover, when you buy a Rolex, a Hublot, an IWC or whatever luxury Swiss watch for more that $10k, you keep it for decades and you can even resell it, while this first version of Apple watch will be out of trend in 2 years. Even worth, knowing Apple, the OS won't be supported in 3-4 years and apps won't run. As a result you will have a golden piece of trash.

    Clearly, it's a robbery and I really think that it's going to be the first and the last golden edition from Apple.
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:52 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil inventory highest in 80 years; crude drops below $47 [View news story]
    Alex,

    If your input price decreases, it means that your margin increases on the output. If oil price goes down, ceteris paribus, your refining margin increases, so I don't really follow your logic. Oil price decreased by roughly 60%, while the price at the gas stations decreased by roughly 25-30%. Refiners and governments (tax revenue) make even more money today, since much more people can afford a cheaper gas, while their main input costs them 60% less than only 5 months ago.
    Jan 22, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil inventory highest in 80 years; crude drops below $47 [View news story]
    Markets perceive it as on oversupply and demand insufficiency. Another financial dogmatism, but honesty, I don't know who is being wright right now. Fracking system actually did increase the production and the efficiency. Market was supposed to equilibrate itself, since that methodology isn't profitable at such low price levels, but it should take at least 6 months.
    On the other hand you've got regions such as Libya and Iraq that have been taken over by Islamist regimes. They sell oil at extremely low prices to finance their regimes and their warfare. I suppose that they flooded the black market and that's why a lot of shady companies and even countries became much more reluctant to buy at the legal market at higher prices. Thus, the demand became actually much lower than it used to be. I think that today's situation reflects the oversupply of illegal commodities, that take away the demand on the legitimate markets. I doubt that a higher productivity played a significant role in that downtrend. Oil prices began to decrease precisely when journalists started to write about how ISIS finances its activities, through the sale of Iraqi oil reserves. I doubt that it is a simple coincidence.
    Jan 22, 2015. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold rallies as Swiss abandon euro floor [View news story]
    The Swiss legal system works through referendums. It means that if the Swiss government would decide to join EU they will have to submit that proposal to the popular vote. If you analyse the most recent referendum results that have a direct link to Swiss integration to EU, such as immigration laws, you clearly see that at least 50% of people wish to keep their sovereignty.
    Today, through the bilateral agreements with EU, Switzerland is de-facto a EU member State, without any representation of Switzerland in the European Commission or Parliament. However, in the most recent years, people showed that they would like to see Switzerland becoming much more independent of EU by cutting most of the ties with EU.
    As I see it, Switzerland will never fit into EU. On one hand they have an extremely strong national ideology and political neutrality towards international relationships. On the other hand there are way too many cultural differences that would never allow Switzerland to fit well into the European politics. For example, weak federal government >< strong cantonal governments, the only Western European State with compulsory military service, legal fire weapons circulation, obscure financial system (even without banking secret through secret hedge funds), free cash circulation (the only country in Europe where there are no cash purchase limits >< limited to 3.000€ in EU), highest wages and the lowest university degrees rate in Europe. I can go on and on. People don't feel European, they feel Swiss and there is absolutely no chance that any referendum proposal would pass.
    If Switzerland becomes a EU member, it will be comparable to the UK and it would complicate the EU decision making system even farther. I don't see that happening any time soon. Besides the economical point of view, it wouldn't be advantageous neither for EU, nor for Switzerland. I must say that I doubt that it would even be advantageous for Swiss economy on the long term either.
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry beats by $0.06, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Neither! In both cases the company is in a terrible shape and needs tremendous improvements. Chen has probably done only 30% of his job at the moment. The remaining 70% are revenue, sales and image improvements and it's definitely the hardest part.

    But it's ok, keep looking at the half full glass! It's the least you could do considering the pre-market.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
325 Comments
842 Likes