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Davidoff

Davidoff
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  • Nokia plots mobile comeback [View news story]
    It will all depend on the scale. I do not see any significant changes since the sale to MSFT that would justify the comeback in the phone business. Fighting for less than 10% of the market that is dominated by 2 major brands, is pointless. It would be preferable to focus on newer markets, instead of chasing the lost glory.

    Nevertheless, Nokia is still a solid brand name. It will obviously not sell as well as Samsung or Apple, but it can regain a 1-5% market share quiet easily if it adopts Android. In the past years Nokia managed its costs extremely well and could afford selling $50 phones for a profit. Interesting designs, exclusive features and great manufacturing quality is still in the minds. As an annex activity that will not use too much resources, it should work quiet well. Hopefully, it will not divert the attention from the activities that actually do have a high potential for the future.

    I still have in mind that Nokia's Morph concept that was presented in 2008 and that was supposed to be released in 2015 : http://bit.ly/1TeRQBX

    If Nokia can manage to release it by 2016, I would be extremely enthused by Nokia's move. This is the future of the mobile phones. It combines the features offered by Samsung's bendable phones with an Apple Watch.

    Even if Nokia does not release it by itself, but rather makes a partnership with Samsung to combine their respective bendable technologies, it will most certainly be an iPhone, an iPad and an Apple Watch killer.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Music's Start Looks Promising, But Don't Get Blindsided By Early Numbers [View article]
    The Kush,

    Apple Music is available in the whole EU as well. Get your facts straight.

    If Apple Music attracted only 11m users while it is completely free and all over the Internet you could find articles regarding how to turn off the automatic subscription after the end of the trial, it is completely obvious that these numbers are all but promising.

    I want to see the numbers right after the end of the trial. Everything else is meaningless. Since the service is completely free, I expected at least 50m subscriptions by August. Seems like not that much customers are interested in this service even if it is offered for free.

    With only 11m users, it might be even more interesting to offer the service for free permanently. Apple would offer a great selling argument at an extremely low cost. $15/month for 6 family members shows that Apple could easily afford 1-2 years free music for a purchase of an iPad, an iPhone or an Apple Watch.
    Aug 6, 2015. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple shoots down MVNO service report; shares down another 3.2% [View news story]
    I doubt that after 9 years another iPhone will create the momentum to push the stock higher. In the best case, it will be a short term artificial leap. A sort of a Pavlovian conditioning. What markets expect is a new product that could show at least as much potential as iPhone and iPad did 9 years ago. Meanwhile Apple Watch is not convincing enough to prove that something interesting can still be boiled in Apple's labs.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple shoots down MVNO service report; shares down another 3.2% [View news story]
    name999,

    Is it an American legislation law? Why an Apple subsidiary in Ireland or Cayman Islands is not allowed to buy AAPL stocks on the NY stock exchange?
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    "Yet Apple didn't have the watch in stores until 6 weeks after launch. Nor have they made them available to outside retailers. Nor are they available in all Apple markets."

    -> In deed, Apple displayed Watches in European stores for 2 weeks and started selling them only afterwards, creating the effect of rarity and the artificial urge to buy. Some people have most certainly rushed in to buy one, but there was very few of them in EU. When iPhone 6 and 6+ got released, there were crowds, cues and stock shortages in Dusseldorf, Lille, Paris and Brussels. I saw it by myself. Nothing comparable could not be noticed regarding the watch.

    "If they had an over-abundance of watches they would have been selling them everywhere and there wouldn't have been multi-week shipping delays."

    -> It is Apple, it is not like it absolutely needed to clear its stocks. It is not a question of selling or going bankrupt, but rather to create a long term pattern. Apple sticks to its regular strategy of creating an envy and rolling out new products progressively on different markets. Unfortunately that strategy did not work out in this case and stocks are clearly overwhelming, while people do not rush to buy watches. All that despite hundreds of millions spent on marketing and promotions. I think that the worst strategy was to present a geeky watch as a lifestyle fashion accessory and advertise it in fashion and haute couture magasines.

    "I'm not suggesting Apple sold millions upon millions of watches and that demand is massive. All I'm saying is it's pretty clear their supply situation for the first couple months after launch was way behind demand."

    -> Maybe in the US. I read a report arguing that Apple was selling 200,000 units a day in the US during the first week. According to the same report, released before the quarterly earnings reports, sales supposedly fell to 5,000 units a day a couple of weeks after the release (extremely fast). I think that it is not even close to EU sales. I am all the time in the city centrum and as I said, I did not see anyone wearing one, while Apple Stores, nor the Apple site have not been out of stocks.

    Meanwhile even suppliers cannot reach the break-even point and do not expect to reach it during the next 2 quarters : http://bit.ly/1M1D4sD
    Aug 3, 2015. 07:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Dennis Baker,

    What I wrote was based on my personal observation, Apple's site checks and Apple Store (the only distributor in EU) checks upon the release. I could not observe any stock shortages on Apple EU sites. I was considering a purchase, so my interest was double, as an APPL long investor and as a potential buyer.

    The 1st wave of releases was in the US, the 2nd Germany, UK, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc. It was all in the same quarter. In Europe there was no supply constraints whatsoever and the demand did not follow since the very first weeks of the European launch. There were huge crowds around Apple Watches in stores, a lot of interest, but no one was buying. No crowds today, people barely look at watch stands. The first time that I saw someone wearing an Apple Watch (watches is my passion and looking at what men are wearing on their wrists is a sort of a reflex) was 9 days ago in Zurich. My observation was confirmed by the last quarter results.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Dennis Baker,

    I don't know what is going on in the US buy here, the few Apple Stores that we have got around Belgium (our Apple Store in Brussels will be opened in September) have a lot of stocks. Moreover there are thousands of watches that are being resold or sold on eBay and other eBay-like sites.

    UK : http://ebay.eu/1KN7ugE -> 7 pages of authentic Apple Watches (350 in total)
    France : http://ebay.eu/1KN7ugG -> 5 pages (250)
    (I put price starting at 150€ in order to avoid all the Chinese replicas)

    I saw many Apple amateur French speaking sites where people decided to buy 2-3 watches abroad upon the release and resell them for a premium in Belgium before the official release, but they simply could not find any buyers.

    Now that I read your comment, I have also checked Apple.de (Germany), Apple.fr (France), Apple.co.uk and Apple.nl (Netherlands) and all the models are in stock and can be immediately purchased without any problems.

    In any case, I simply cannot believe that there is a supply problem and if there is one, it might have been artificially created by Apple.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    I do not know where you see any supply constraints on Western markets. When Apple Watch was released in France, UK and Germany (second wave) I had the possibility to go to Apple Stores in London, Paris, Lille and Dusseldorf. Since the weeks 1-3 upon the release they had enough Apple Watches in stock to sell me. Did not buy, but as an investor I found it interesting to check. Approximate sales numbers from the last quarter indicate that the demand is weak, while the supply seems to be sufficient.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Mdsnj,

    It might be unrepresentative, but from all the people I know, the only ones who purchased an iPhone 6 were former Samsung users. Others kept theirs 4, 4s, 5 and 5s and they do not seem to have an intention to upgrade. The fact that only 23% of consumers upgraded might indicate that :
    1. iPhone users are not interested in upgrading to newer models because they are satisfied with their current iPhone.
    OR
    2. iPhone users do not want to buy a new iPhone and wait for some other brand to release something different.

    It is only my personal opinion, but I think that in the Western markets, people are genuinely fed up with this duopoly and are getting more and more uninterested in the current phone market. I do not know how long this situation can last, when you have got a generic OS, a generic design and generic refreshments used by all phone makers. It is like if you had 2-3 same car models from all the car makers.

    I have been on a party in Paris recently. I was surprised to see that the most popular phones among young people became the old Nokia and SonyEricson feature phones from the early 2000's that are being sold new by some specialized companies. Apparently these phones drag more attention than any other phone on the market.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Never did? Apple Watch does not count?
    Aug 3, 2015. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Tarheelboy,

    Just because this article is written about Apple and it irritates some investors, does not mean that the author seeks a controversy. Paulo presented his point of view that he backed with a sound argumentation. It is a forecast and it can obviously be right or wrong, just like any other forecast. Nevertheless, claiming that his approach is unprofessional is simply ridiculous, especially based on this piece of work.
    Aug 3, 2015. 03:50 PM | 38 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: New Apple TV set-top due in September, will have remote with touchpad [View news story]
    "Once again, why comment on something you're unfamiliar with?"

    I am really glad for you that you are an Apple expert. Must really help in life, especially with your investment.

    So basically, not only you will have to buy overpriced new generation home kit devices, but you will also have to pay an extra for a useless Apple TV. Well, at least you seem interested! Good for Apple.

    "I'm guessing you said the same thing when Apple decided to enter the personal media player then the cell phone then the slate computer fields…"

    I have been a regular AAPL investor since the iPod (about 2004). I have been incredibly thrilled when Apple presented iPhone, iPad and Mac Air. But since then, I am rather disappointed by AAPL and looking forward to disinvest progressively from my latest position at $64.

    Computers and home security stand on completely different confidence levels. In the same way I do not trust generic drugs, I would not trust an amateur with my home security. I would rather trust a company that has been in security business for 45 years, who has been serving me extremely well for the past 20 years and who offers me its outstanding service for an extremely reasonable price. This company started offering all the features that Apple presented 3-4 years ago and I could select the ones that I am interested in. Too bad that I do not have iOS on my cameras and do not have an Apple logo on my movement detectors, but I will survive!

    I am not interested in having a "smart house". I would rather remain safe in my old fashioned mansion than take a risk with this untested technology. Smart homes are the climax of laziness and stupidity of our society. Paying to have a Big Brother at your home is a perversity that even Orwell did not think of. A safe lock and a professional alarm system is more than enough for me. I do not want to be highjacked from my home by some hackers, like they did with the "secured" Jeep.

    "Hmm…yes, it's unlikely Apple and its HomeKit partners considered such a possibility. Sheesh…"

    A couple of years ago I got blocked in my Manhattan appartement by a hurricane. There was no power and no water for 4 days. Apple's iPhone and Watch do not hold their battery power for more than 24 hours. I suspect that their lock will not have more power reserve than that. In any case why would I take that risk for my OWN money?

    "In fact, it's one of the reasons for HomeKit's relatively slow roll-out."

    Well, they would better hold it for them selves.
    Jul 31, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating The State Of Macau At The End Of July [View article]
    Tell me about it! I have been sleeping 2-3 hours per day since I turned 22 in order to be able to trade on Asian, European and American markets. I used to trade on the Tel Aviv stock exchange for a couple of years as well, but it turned out to be too much for me and I decided to take a full rest on Sundays.

    I simply have a basic statistical and econometric (big data) formation from my business schools. As an economist and financial engineer you must be literate in econometrics. Nevertheless, I am barely intelligent enough to read the raw reports that our professional statisticians make. An important part of what these geniuses do remains a mystery for me.

    I do not think that it is guessing, since the models can be mathematically proofed, but I think that the current models might be incomplete and moreover, it is possible to make mistakes on each and every step of the research.

    I am nevertheless a little bit more skeptical regarding the financial models and algorithms that are being massively used by banks and big hedge funds. I suspect that if they are accurate and functioning, they deregulate the markets more than anything.

    And of course, I agree that there is the effect of a crowd that cannot be completely figured out by current models. A lot of irrational behavior cannot be explained or modeled by current mathematical tools. But perhaps, people's "feelings" is the only thing that keeps markets efficient.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating The State Of Macau At The End Of July [View article]
    lzl,

    Investing is not about guessing. There are a lot of tools to make accurate estimations and predictions, like big data econometrics. I know that there are a lot of investors who guess. But in my opinion, a good estimation must require a good argumentation, a stochastic computer regression and above all an outstanding sampling so that all your work would not be stupidly biased by a lousy population selection. It requires a lot of work and time, but at least when you read it, you barely have any remarks to make. The result is scientific, sound and clear. Otherwise you can also go to some "medium" or a fortune teller. The result will be the same - completely random.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating The State Of Macau At The End Of July [View article]
    And I believe that the gross gaming revenues could fall as much as 32.99995%. Apparently SA is not an investing site, but an online guessing game. Does anyone take bets on Chinese gambling sites?
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
407 Comments
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