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Ad van der Meer

Ad van der Meer
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  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    Let's wait for the 2014 numbers and the explanation of PS, LT and other non believers when Tesla does meet the 35'000 deliveries number.

    You guys (and girl) never fail to amuse me. Tesla is proving you wrong every turn of the way and still you think you'll get it right the next quarter.
    Aug 1 10:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Earnings Exceed Expectations? The Company Won't Match Its Valuation Either Way [View article]
    If only there was a way to short your book ....
    Jul 29 04:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Real Problem: Energy Density [View article]
    Daniel, let's for a moment imagine Elon Musk would solve all the "problems" you have described over night. Even at the same kWh/$ price point of today that would mean Tesla could take over 50% of the car market if they were able produce that number of cars, over night.
    Even at the crazy pace Tesla is growing these days, they are stretching their dollars to keep up with that pace building service centres, stores and superchargers (the very reason they are not making money yet). Tesla is not ready to sell, service and charge 1 million cars any time soon. There is no need for them to have the ultimate battery that would kill the ICE today. Actually it would be an enormous threat as I said before they could not meet demand and other OEM's would steal Tesla's lunch.
    Tesla's battery technology has improved from the Roadster to Model S in energy density and kWh/$ price. If Tesla can do that trick again for the Model 3, that will be good enough for 2017. There will be no problem to sell 250'000 cars per year. Relative to the total automobile market that's still a drop in a bucket, but for Tesla it would be huge and right in line with the aggressive growth line that Elon Musk has drawn on the wall for Tesla.
    The real question is, can the other EV manufacturer keep up with Tesla? Or maybe even more important, do the other OEM's want to keep up with Tesla? Let's face it, they don't give a damn about global warming it's just the bottom line and their bonuses that really matter. Investing in EV's threaten an enormous industry with billions and billions of investments at risk that could still make a killing for decades to come. Starter engines, exhaust pipes, catalyst converters, filters, transmissions, brakes. All products to go extinct or face a radical change in their business case. Spare parts is an industry in itself, the work shop of any dealer is a profit centre in itself.
    Jul 26 04:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Real Problem: Energy Density [View article]
    If mentioning the wrong show is the only fact he got wrong, than your comment is quite meaningless now isn't it?
    Jul 26 03:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Current Scorecard Reads 64,000 To 65 [View article]
    Wow! I meant to say:

    The only sustainable way to make hydrogen on an industrial scale is electrolysis. This process requires 2 times more electricity per mile driven than driving .

    Oh well ...

    Wasting energy is never good. Period!

    Making synthetic fuels is madness. It requires (lots of) energy to make it and you still have to burn it. (Also, see previous point)

    If the only argument is the time you spend at the pump/charger, we might as well give all our money on Spacex and hope on a flight to Mars... real soon.

    PS. Tip: Google hydrolysis
    Jul 23 02:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Current Scorecard Reads 64,000 To 65 [View article]
    The only sustainable way to make hydrogen on an industrial scale is electrolysis. This process requires 2 times more electricity per mile driven than hydrogen.
    Oh well ...
    Jul 22 10:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Really Panic Time? [View article]

    I am getting a little tired of the Tesla "reporting" here on Seeking Alpha. On the one side there are the "FUD" Meisters wasting cloud space with selected information to prove TSLA is no more than an empty bubble waiting burst. On the other side there are the TSLA bulls who see a share price of $500 just around the corner based on some very questionable math. You'd think that would be enough, but than there is a category of writers, like Mr. Maurer, who apparently thinks any writing here is a CV builder, and fill this space with regurgitated information without any original contribution to the discussion.
    Jul 17 02:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    Wow, this is nearly as bad as Paulo's "article".

    Another approach:

    Assuming 55'000 Model S'ses at the end of 2014 and 45'000 x $2'000 with Supercharger option gives Tesla $ 90 million to build, maintain and operate Superchargers. Nobody knows how much these Superchargers really cost, but let's say on average $250k (some just 2 bays others 10 bays). This revenue stream is enough to build 240 Supercharger stations. Tesla will probably have even more Superchargers by the end of 2014, but they (nearly) will all "be paid for".
    Let's assume 5% p.a. maintaince costs ($100 per S with SC option). Taking $120k costs for electricity in June for 30k Model S with SC option that adds up to $4 per car, say $50 p.a.
    So, SC's are paid for, variable costs are $150 per car on the road. Leaves the cost of the lease of the land the SC's are build on. I have no idea on how many SC's Tesla actually has to pay to place these SC's and how much they pay on the instances they do. I am sure somebody else can make a guesstimate.
    In all I think the SC's cost Tesla shockingly little and with more SC's build, more Tesla's will be sold as there are probably many people on the fence waiting for their part of the world ton be integrated in the SC network.
    Jul 15 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Have A Huge Unfunded Warranty Problem Due To Defective Drivetrains [View article]
    There is a reason why BMW tells you not to abuse launch control. I wonder if BMW replaces the drive train like Tesla has free of charge after the abuse it most surely had while in the hands of MT and CR.
    Jul 14 02:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Puts Down A Stake [View article]
    Comparing a Prius to a Tesla Model S is like comparing a BMW 114i to a BMW M5. Yes, a BMW 114i uses far less gas than a BMW M5. Go figure!
    Jul 13 05:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Fear Mongering Must Stop [View article]
    I agree the "article" above is not accurate, but the battery fire was not the problem. The battery fire ignited a fire of the car's interior. Looking at the different video's online there would have been time to leave the car or being helped out if the driver would have been unable to. The space between the A and B pillar looked reasonably undamaged on the driver's side
    Jul 7 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Fear Mongering Must Stop [View article]
    You make a very convincing case! [/sarcasm]

    Naming the expert (and maybe not posting anonymously) would add some credibility to your post.
    Jul 7 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Norway Deliveries Drop 47% In The Quarter [View article]
    Maybe you should consider the fact that Tesla's production pace is going up along the way as well...
    Jul 4 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Model E enters the Tesla equation [View news story]
    I believe bat sh*t crazy is the scientific description I believe they used when he said he was going to launch rockets into orbit and eventually to Mars. Orbit is not half way to Mars, but I'd say it's risky to bet against him. Feel free to do so of course as have many "investors" who've shorted the stock at some time since the IPO and have indirectly paid for more than a few Model S'ses bought from the profits made by investing in $TSLA.
    Jul 2 10:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Toyota's Upcoming FCV Become A Threat To Tesla? [View article]
    You can add
    - Smaller car
    Jul 2 04:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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