Seeking Alpha

Ad van der Meer

Ad van der Meer
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Ad van der Meer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Free And Unlimited Supercharger Access Can Potentially Devastate Tesla [View article]
    Your calculations for the Netherlands are seriously flawed. I guess research isn't your thing.
    Electricity is not very expensive in the Netherlands. It's the energy taxes that get you... as a small consumer. The more you use, the less energy tax you pay.
    The total price paid by a consumer is about €0.25 incl 21% VAT. For a small company that translates to €0.207 per kWh excluding VAT.
    For every kWh used in excess of 10'000 kWh in one calender the energy tax drops € 0.0727, dropping the price per kWh to €0.1343. For every kWh used over 50'000 kWh, the energy tax drops another €0.0344, dropping the price to €0.0999 per kWh.
    Let's assume 50 Tesla Model S'ses Supercharge on average 40 kWh per day. That's 2000 kWh per day, 730'000 kWh per year. Make a little Excel sheet and the price per kWh is €0.10333 or about $0.114 or a little bit over 60% LESS than you used in your calculations. And remember, the average price per kWh drops with ever extra charge.
    Of course the fixed costs rise with higher powered connections. That's why Tesla is building a solar field next to the Supercharger station in Zwolle (also the Netherlands) which will, in combination with a battery (no doubt a string of Powerpacks), reduce the max power drawn by the Supercharger station and thus limiting those costs too.
    You think in problems, Tesla (read Musk) thinks in solutions.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    The S60 is in production since 2012, so it's not like the price dropped over the last 3 months but rather over the last 3 years. And yes, the price of batteries dropped considerably over those 3 years and production is more efficient since than so yes Tesla can offer a better proposition at the same price without doing any damage to the gross margin.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Announces Model S Cars Get Driven Less Than What The Average U.S. Driver Drives [View article]
    Nissan knows exactly how many miles are driven. The Leaf is a connected car.

    All connected cars are being monitored by the manufacturers, they just don't tell you.
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Competition Does Not Have A Lead Over Tesla [View article]
    It is great that they disagree, but it now is time to put up or shut up. There is no physical evidence that there will be anything any time soon. I really hope there will, because even though I am a very big Tesla fan, I would prefer to see all car manufacturers to make affordable and desireable EV's.
    Jun 14, 2015. 06:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV Spotted On Test Track; Does GM Have A 1-2 Year Lead On Tesla's Model 3? [View article]
    The Tesla Model III is supposed to be 25% smaller than the Model S. Looking at the last picture on the Autoblog website, the Bolt, if that car we see is the Bolt, will be significantly smaller.
    The author states that Chevrolet could easily drop the price of the Bolt with $10'000 like they did with the ELR. Small difference, it's easier to drop $10'000 from a $75'000 car that it is from a $30'000 car.
    Fact is that Tesla will face more competition with Model III than it does with Model S which has no EV competitor at all. Fact also is that the potential market for a $35'000 EV with 200 mi range will be much larger as well. Yes, the Bolt will steal some sales from Tesla. Will it matter? No, because Tesla will be physically incapable of saturating that market segment any way. If only for that reason competition will be good. It will keep the Tesla engineers on their toes.
    2017 will be a very interesting year for EV's. Bring it on!
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Are The CPO Sales Going For Tesla? [View article]
    Today, 05-06, 177 CPO cars are online available. Since 04-27 88 cars were sold or at least disappeared from the website. That's about 8.8 cars per day leaving them with 20 days of inventory. I'd say they are selling like hot cakes.

    Average price of cars sold is $75'600 ($53'000 low, $100'200 high) and they are sold after being online for an average of 4 days.

    I seriously doubt there is a used car dealer that moves second hand cars faster unless they are stolen.
    May 6, 2015. 02:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    You state a 10 kWh Powerwall costs $7120 installed and assume that a multiple of Powerwalls will cost a multiple of $7120. I think it's very obvious that with every additional Powerwall the installation costs per Powerwall drop.
    Maybe you need to make call to your local installer and inform yourself. Not that you'd ever admit it here, but hey...
    May 5, 2015. 04:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Are The CPO Sales Going For Tesla? [View article]
    More than 50% of all CPO cars sold were $70k+. 18 of them were $90k+

    I guess they are selling at all price levels.
    May 5, 2015. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Are The CPO Sales Going For Tesla? [View article]
    The Netherlands: April 2015 73 or +52% compared to April 2014, YTD 2015 484 or +85% compared to the same period in 2014.
    May 5, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 397: Apr. 30, 2015 [View instapost]
    So, Tesla is out with a 10 kWh battery at $3500. Does anybody know the price of Axion's Powercube? How do they compare at $/kWh price level?
    May 1, 2015. 04:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • About That BMW i5 And Its Impact On Tesla [View article]
    Axion is not bankrupt just yet, but probably only months away. John Petersen admits he had to sell his part of a Swiss chateau because of this disaster.
    I did notice that every time JP wrote an article to thrash Tesla, the stock went up. I wonder if there is a similar correlation with Anton Wahlman articles and the Tesla stock price.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Subsidies In Danger: The Trend Is Not Its Friend [View article]
    Of course Dan Sperling will try and undermine the development of BEV's. He used to be the chairman California Fuel Cell Partnership. I am sure he will not suggest the same for FCEV's over $40'000!
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Sorry John, but you leave out a very important variable. You assume the fuel surcharge formula will not change with the fuel consumption of the trucks. You assume that those oil and gas executives are morons and not following technical developments as well. Once they see fuel consumption drop, they will change the surcharge at the next contract negotiations.
    You also assume that the competitors of this transporter are all asleep. They too will invest in a system like this and the price erosion will start all over again dropping the prices to a new equilibrium. Your breakfast buddy may hope to be the first to use it and try and retrieve his investment, but it will be very difficult.
    Your calculations are as credible as the expectations of some of the Tesla fan boys that predict a TSLA stock price of $500 in 5 years time. I wanted to use another word instead of credible, but that probably would have this post deleted by SA.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    You are absolutely right they are not there yet, but you must agree that in less than 3 years time they have come very close and, should they be able to keep the momentum going, are going to surpass the usual suspects in less than 5 years. Well, I believe so. Again, where the puck is going, not where it is right now.
    You pay more for the 70D, but the car is a much better deal too. AWD $5000, Supercharging $2000, Tech package $2000, more range ($?). Maybe you are suggesting they should have a 50 kWh version, than I disagree. EV's should get to that point where 200 real life miles is the bar. From that point forward efforts should be made to make batteries cheaper, smaller, lighter and offer less calendar and cycle degradation.
    Apr 12, 2015. 03:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    Assumption is the mother of all f....

    If you are measuring Tesla with conventional car manufacturing wisdom, you've got another thing coming.

    Tesla is the reason model cycles will drop in length. Tesla doesn't wait to milk the old, they instead charge forward to milk the new. The rate at which Tesla is approaching the level, and in some fields passing, the conventional car makers should be alarming. Tesla was rightfully criticized for not being on par with cars in the same price range. Since the first car being hand over to Steve Jurvetson, Tesla has improved the Model S with a momentum that has never been seen in the car business.
    1) Supercharging has gone from 90 kW to 135 kW and JB Straubel has said they are not done yet.
    2) Safety features are almost upto par with the top of German car manufacturers with perhaps the exception of night vision.
    3) With the introduction of the P85D they have shown electric can beat the M5's, AMG's and other performance ICE powered cars and be assured they are not done there either.
    4) With the introduction of the 70D they have made an even better offer to buy a Model S improving on range, performance and standard features.

    As battery prices keep dropping Tesla can keep adding value to the Model S while keeping the price at about the same level. Instead of adding features they could decide to change the (P)85(D) models into (P)100(D) adding range and power again. Increasing the capacity of the battery would also allow for faster Supercharging as well.

    Wayne Gretzky put it correctly: You have to skate to the spot where the puck is going to be. Tesla is still chasing the puck, but in about 5 years, they will decide where the puck is going. Unless of course conventional car makers will see the light and start steering in the right direction. As they are maneuvering mammoth tankers, they better start moving the helm soon or they will miss the turn.
    Apr 11, 2015. 04:53 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment